Three keys to a Duke win versus Houston in the Sweet 16

Duke’s methodical offense and ability to handle Houston’s air-tight ball-trapping defense defense is a major key to winning this game.

The time continues to dwindle as we get closer and closer to Duke tipping off in Dallas to take on the Houston Cougars for the right to move on to the Elite Eight.

Duke’s journey this year has been up and down, but after an unfortunate blip of back-to-back losses right before the NCAA Tournament started, the momentum did not seem to favor the Blue Devils.

Yet, here we are after Duke dominated the tournament’s first two games and cruised to Dallas. Things won’t be nearly as easy on Friday night against Houston. The Cougars are tough, physical, and tested. Two-way guard Jamal Shead, Houston’s star player, will be playing in his 15th NCAA Tournament game on Friday evening. Kelvin Sampson has had a terrific tenure coaching this program, and he brings years of NCAA Tournament experience.

Duke will have its hands full. However, Houston can be beat. With that said, here are three keys to a Duke win.

Quick decisions are essential.

Houston runs a highly effective defense predicated on trapping the ball in the pick-and-roll. It blitzes ball-handlers and forces them to make lightning-quick decisions and passes that many teams at the college level can’t make or are too slow to make, thus leading to turnovers and rushed offensive sets.

When you look at the Cougars’ defense, they are No. 2 in effective field goal percentage (44%), block rate (16.1%), and steal rate (15.5%). They are also within the top five in turnover percentage (24.7%) and 2-point defense (43.4 %) and they hold teams under 30 percent from three.

In other words, they are stout defensively. However, opponents have a shot if they can swing the ball and break the trap down off the dribble. Jeremy Roach has dominated the ball in the tournament thus far, sliding into a more conventional PG role like he did in the last few NCAA Tournaments. He must be decisive, make the right reads, and get the ball out so Duke can swing it, attack open gaps, or use numbers to their advantage when applicable.

If the ball sticks, Duke will be in trouble, generating offense. Luckily, Duke has found its rhythm in sharing the ball in the tournament. 22 assists on 33 made field goals against James Madison in the second round certainly helps. They may not make nearly as many baskets, but a similar ratio would likely mean they’ve been able to break down Houston’s defense.

Shoot, shoot, shoot

There are going to be plenty of 3-point opportunities available come Friday night. Duke needs to be ready to hit them. They shot the cover off the ball against JMU in their last game. Jared McCain had eight threes. It’s unlikely Houston will allow the number of open looks that JMU did, but for the ones they do, Duke has to cash in on them.

Per Synergy Sports, Houston is in the 98th percentile in spot-up points allowed per possession at an incredibly high rate (27% of defensive possessions.) In other words, McCain and Tyrese Proctor have to have good days like they did Sunday shooting the ball. The issue is that Houston plays such a hellacious defense that they will contest everything. Duke needs an inspired shooting performance like they had in the second round, or at least 40% in comparison to the 50% they were at against the Dukes.

Toughness wins

You would be hard-pressed to find a tougher team than the Houston Cougars. They play hard physically; if you are mentally and physically unprepared, things can spiral quickly. Duke’s knock this year is that they are soft. That has been the narrative all season long. Both games against UNC showcased that, as did their early loss to Arkansas.

Duke will be run out of the gym if it is not mentally and physically ready to battle this Houston team. In the aftermath of the JMU game, players and coaches talked about how the message preached was to throw the first punch. Come out and attack them. Set the tone on both court ends and let them know you’re here. That same message applies here.

Houston may not be nearly as dynamic offensively as the Tar Heels, but they are even better defensively, and both games against North Carolina did no favors for Duke. Duke is 18th in effective field-goal percentage. They can score with the best of them, but this is different. Duke hasn’t beaten a higher-ranked seed in 30 years. To win this game, they must showcase what they have been missing all year.

Mark Mitchell, Duke grind out 64-47 win over Vermont to advance to Round of 32

Duke grinds out 64-47 win over Vemront to move on to the next round of the NCAA Tournament.

It was not pretty, but it was more than adequate.

Duke’s defense and a balanced scoring effort featuring four players in double figures were enough for the Blue Devils to beat Vermont 64-47 on Friday evening and advance to the round of 32.

Duke dropped its last two games leading up to the NCAA Tournament as they slid from fighting for a chance at a 2-seed to landing on the 4-seed line come Selection Sunday. The reasoning had everything to do with Duke’s play against its in-state rivals, UNC and NC State, in its final two games. The Blue Devils didn’t look like themselves, and it showed on the court. As they prepared for their first-round matchup against a tough Vermont team, Duke needed a level of toughness they hadn’t shown in weeks.

On Friday night, they showcased that as they held America East Conference champions to just 47 total points, including 18 in the second half.

The offense was hardly fluid, but early on, sophomore Mark Mitchell terrorized Vermont in ball screens as he repeatedly rolled to the basket, finishing with 11 first-half points and four dunks. Vermont opted to double Kyle Filipowski on every post touch. While the 7-footer finished with just one shot attempt from the field, he impacted the game in every other category, collecting 12 rebounds, four assists, two steals, and three blocks.

Vermont made a late push at the end of the first half to go into the break with Duke leading 34-29.

The two teams struggled to put the ball in the basket in the first eight minutes of the second half, and Duke scored on just one of their first five possessions.

Vermont cut the Blue Devils’ lead to 36-34, possessing the ball with a chance to tie or even take the lead, only to see Nick Fiorillo miss a 3-pointer that would have put the Catamounts out in front.

McCain answered with a 3-pointer for Duke, and when Proctor added a 3-pointer with 14:46 to play, Duke led 42-35.

For the remainder of the second half, Duke kept Vermont at arm’s length thanks to defense and inspired play from senior captain Jeremy Roach, who added 10 of his 14 points in the final ten minutes of the second half.

Jared McCain provided 15 points on 4/9 shooting, while Tyrese Proctor added 13 points. Shamir Bogues and Aaron Deloney led the way for Vermont with 18 and 14 points, respectively.

Duke needed to get back in transition, and they did that. They were also +12 in rebounding, holding Vermont to one shot on over half of their possessions.

With Duke’s win, they move on to Sunday’s second-round matchups, where they will face the winner of James Madison and Wisconsin.

Does Duke have the consistency to go deep into the NCAA Tournament?

Duke assuredly has the ceiling to reach the Final Four. Can they put together four good games to get there, though?

Duke has the talent to make the Final Four. In fact, the Blue Devils have a team that could make noise when it gets there.

With two All-ACC team members and one of the best freshmen in the country, as well as the emergence of sophomore Mark Mitchell as a reliable scoring option, there aren’t many teams with Duke’s top-five talent.

The Blue Devils need to get to the Final Four for that to matter, however. That requires them to win four straight games, and with each passing game in spring, that looks less and less likely.

After Thursday’s loss to NC State in the ACC Tournament, Duke has played 12 games since the beginning of February. The Blue Devils have shot below 32% from behind the 3-point line in six of those games. They’ve turned the ball over at least 10 times in six of those games. They’ve shot 70% or worse from the free-throw line in six of those games.

Even their esteemed five starters can’t all get on the same page. Against North Carolina in Chapel Hill in February, sophomore Tyrese Proctor went 1/6 from the floor and had more personal fouls than points. In the next game against Notre Dame, senior captain Jeremy Roach went 3/10 from the floor to score seven points and the team shot 22.2% from long range.

Freshman Jared McCain went 1/8 from three in the following game against Boston College. Then Proctor went 0/5 at home against Wake Forest, and then Mitchell, Filipowski, and Caleb Foster combined to shoot 8/21 from the floor against Florida State, and you get the idea.

The issues all culminated against the Wolfpack when Proctor, McCain, and Roach teamed to shoot 7/28 from the floor and 3/14 from beyond the 3-point line. With Foster battling an ankle injury and unlikely to come back anytime soon, Duke doesn’t have the backcourt depth to spell more than one of them at a time.

The end result? The trio combined for 23 points on 28 shots and Duke lost by five.

The Blue Devils, by every advanced metric, have been one of the best offenses in the country all season. As a team, they average 79.8 points per game, and KenPom grades them as the eighth-best offense in the country in adjusted points per possession.

However, it’s felt like a sure thing that at least one member of the team won’t show up any given night. When the lights get brighter and every team ahead of them is a top-30 team in the country, Duke can’t afford a random member of its starting five to shoot 20% from the floor, especially with their limited depth.

Can they rely on all five members to show up night-in and night-out?

Duke’s loss to NC State emblematic of this season’s core issues with NCAA Tournament on horizon

Duke’s loss to NC State is more of the same from Duke this year. Is there enough time to fix the issues that have plagued the Blue Devils?

Thursday night was a rough pill for the Duke basketball program fans to swallow.

The Blue Devils were a trendy pick to make the ACC Tournament final at the very least and potentially set up a third matchup with their rivals, the UNC Tar Heels. What happened was a bit more shocking as NC State, a team playing its third game in as many days, was able to oust Duke from the tournament in the quarterfinals with a 74-69 win.

Losing hurts, but this most recent loss had a familiar stench. The Blue Devils started slow, played lackadaisical defense, and didn’t get the 50/50 balls to win the game. Duke’s trio of starting guards went a combined 7/28, which will not cut it in March.

If Duke’s loss felt familiar, it’s because it was. In their losses this year, they’ve showcased the same things that ailed them last night. Physically, the defensive effort and energy seemed to be lacking.

Last night was no different. State played physical defense, and Duke often had many drives to the basket that ended in missed opportunities because the Blue Devils anticipated fouls or hoped to be fouled.

On defense, Duke was slow to cut off drives, and in transition, there was a considerable lack of effort as guys half-heartedly got back and barely attempted to stop the ball. Duke was beaten to the ball for rebounds despite having multiple players in the area.

In the previous game against UNC, Duke came out flat and could never recover as UNC raced out to a 15-4 lead on Senior Night. Effort, energy, and defensive pride plagued Jon Scheyer’s team then.

That brings us to this question: Is it a player or coaching issue?

The truth is it lies somewhere in the middle. Jon Scheyer is a competitive guy, but he’s not the fiery coach that his predecessor was. At least, not yet. However, this year, his team has lacked the edge to fight back in a game like last night’s ACC quarterfinal loss. Against a desperate team fighting for its season, Duke needed to come out and bury them early. They came out slow, and then NC State gained confidence. Duke weathered the storm and took a late first-half lead, but it was short-lived.

Even though Duke went into the half down three, NC State came right back out and went on an 8-0 run before the under-16 media timeout. This Blue Devils team never finds that extra gear in games when they need it. There is no outright vocal leader on the court for Duke, and it shows. As far as we can see, there’s no one to galvanize the troops amongst the players.

How does Duke prepare for this year’s NCAA Tournament? They need to figure some things out, that’s for sure. Maybe it’s from the player-led meeting that was supposed to occur when Duke returned to Durham after the ACC Tournament to help clear the air. However, having meetings like that on March 15th, a week before the season’s biggest games, is eyebrow-raising. Where was the urgency for the meeting following their second straight loss to their biggest rival?

Scheyer is not without faults, either. He and his staff don’t have the most complete roster. Losing Dereck Lively and never finding a better option to play center via the portal is something he and his staff have to live with now. The lack of another functional big man to spell Kyle Filipowski and take pressure off of him defensively has impacted Duke’s defense and rebounding, too.

However, with the right draw and more effort from the guys in the locker room, Duke can beat many teams in the country in this upcoming NCAA Tournament. Will they? We’ll find out starting sometime next week.

Jeremy Roach chosen as member of All-ACC Third Team

Duke senior and captain Jeremy Roach was named to All-ACC Third Team on Monday.

With the regular season officially over, it’s award season as teams in the ACC prepare and make their way toward Washington, DC, for the 2024 ACC Tournament.

Duke will head to the nation’s capital with three All-ACC talents as the league office honored Kyle Filipowskiu, Jared McCain, and Jeremy Roach.

Roach, in particular, was named an All-ACC Third Team member for his efforts during the season. Roach, a two-time captain for the Duke team, ranked third in the ACC in assist/turnover ratio (2.51) while dishing out 3.1 assists per contest. He finished the regular season 16th in the ACC with 14.3 points per game, eclipsed the 1,000-point mark in November, and is currently at 1,408 points for his career.

He shot a blistering 48.4% from the field, including 44.2% from long distance, made 50 3-pointers, and converted 85.7% of his free throws. He served as much more of a combo guard this year, and while the Blue Devils have a talented backcourt, Roach remained the late-game option to get a basket if the ball wasn’t in the hands of All-ACC First Team member Kyle Filipowski.

Roach has at most nine games left for the remainder of this season before making a decision on his future. The Blue Devils honored Roach for senior night this past weekend against UNC, but Roach could still use his COVID year of eligibility to return for one final season.

Where is Jeremy Roach on Duke’s all-time scoring list after the regular season?

With his final regular season now in the books, Jeremy Roach became the third Duke player since 2011 to reach 1,400 career points. Where does the milestone leave him on the program’s all-time scoring list?

Senior guard Jeremy Roach has started more than 100 games in his Duke career, and with his time as a Blue Devil coming to a close, he’s working himself into some gaudy company in program history.

With his final regular season officially over and his senior night in the rearview mirror, Roach currently sits 35th in Duke history with 1,408 career points.

Only two other players since 2011 have also reached 1,400 career points in a Duke uniform. Quinn Cook finished with 1,571 points (29th all-time), and Grayson Allen finished with 1,996 (12th).

Roach, who is averaging more than 14 points per game this season, has a full postseason to work his way farther up the list. He’s only nine points behind Mike Lewis (1,417 career points) for 34th on the all-time list, and he’s 47 points behind Vince Taylor and Chris Carrawell for 32nd.

Should Duke make it to the Sweet 16 of the upcoming NCAA Tournament, Roach should have enough games to move past those three names.

However, the gap between 32nd and 31st is 51 points, meaning the fourth-year guard would likely need a national championship run to move any higher than that.

Jeremy Roach’s career at Cameron Indoor Stadium in photos

Take a trip down memory lane with the best photos from Jeremy Roach’s four-year career at Cameron Indoor Stadium.

Few Duke players have been as integral to Duke’s recent history as Jeremy Roach.

The senior guard and the last remaining starter from the Mike Krzyzewski era was honored during senior night on Saturday, his last home game wearing a Blue Devils jersey.

The 6-foot-2 Virginia native helped lead Duke to a Final Four appearance two seasons ago, and in his final year, he’s shooting 44.2% from beyond the arc and averaging 14.3 points per game.

He finished his final regular season with 1,408 career points, 35th on Duke’s all-time scoring list with a full postseason ahead of him.

Take a trip down memory lane with the best photos from Roach’s career at Cameron Indoor Stadium, where he shared a locker room with some of the most recognizable figures in the program while becoming one himself.

Coach K attends North Carolina game, Roach’s senior night

Five-time national champion Mike Krzyzewski showed up at Cameron on Saturday to support both Duke’s efforts against rival UNC and seniors like Jeremy Roach in their final home game.

What game between Duke and North Carolina would be complete without Coach K?

Legendary coach Mike Krzyzewski, who led Duke to five national titles across his four decades in Durham, sat courtside in Cameron Indoor once more on Saturday night.

Obviously, he was there to support his former team against their bitter rival, but given Saturday was the final game of the regular season, it doubled as senior night for Blue Devils like Jeremy Roach, who started his Duke career playing for Coach K.

The longtime Duke head coach hasn’t been a stranger since his retirement two years ago when he led the team to the Final Four in his last season, coming to support former star and current head coach Jon Scheyer a handful of times.

Roach embraced his former coach and Krzyzewski’s wife as he was honored before the game.

Roach is the final Duke player who started during the Krzyzewski era, bringing Coach K’s four-decade tenure to a final completion.

Three keys to a Duke victory against UNC

Taking a look at three keys to a Duke win vs UNC on Saturday as the Blue Devils close out the regular season.

It is time for the round two.

Tobacco Road’s biggest titans are set to square off one final time for the regular season on Saturday evening. The stakes will be a bit higher than they were when the two hit the hardwood the first time in February. An outright ACC title is on the line for UNC while a share of the ACC title is still up for grabs for Duke.

That doesn’t even include the possible implications for NCAA Tournament seeding either. Both schools are still firmly in the mix for a No. 2 seed at this juncture, and a massive Quad 1 win like this would only boost that case.

All those storylines aside, it’s Duke and North Carolina. The bragging rights matter and Duke, specifically, has revenge on their mind.

The loss in Chapel Hill in February felt like a lifetime ago. Duke played passively, didn’t play a crisp game (nine of their eleven turnovers were live ball), and defensively, they had some major hiccups.

Credit is due to the Tar Heels. They played great. But Duke didn’t put forth their best effort.

Saturday gives the Blue Devils one final chance to show how much of a force they’ve become. There is no mistaking them now. They’ve got a bench unit that’s starting to flourish despite being without Caleb Foster at least through the ACC Tournament, per head coach Jon Scheyer. And Tyrese Proctor has found his swagger again.

These all bring us to our three keys for the game on Saturday.

Aussie, Aussie, Aussie

Duke’s chances to truly be Final Four contenders rest on the shoulders of their sophomore Australian point guard, Tyrese Proctor. Proctor can control and dictate a game on both ends. In the first UNC matchup, he played 26 minutes and scored two points on 1/6 shooting. It felt as if he wasn’t even out there at points. He wasn’t aggressive, and he seemed reluctant to get downhill.

In the last three games, he’s found himself. He kept Duke afloat early in Raleigh despite NC State connecting on the first punch. His 11 first-half points, spearheaded by three massive three-pointers, kept Duke from spiraling. He can shoot, he can pass and he can defend. All three of those things Duke will need against UNC.

Look for Proctor to be a factor early.

The bench needs to show up

Ryan Young, Sean Stewart, and TJ Power look solidified as Duke’s bench right now. Caleb Foster joins that when, or if, he gets back, and Duke officially is nine deep.

For right now, they are eight deep, and that will have to be enough. Power and Stewart have started to become consistent players off the bench in the last three games. Stewart had his best game as a collegiate player against NC State. He played 26 minutes and had 12 points, five rebounds (four offensive), three blocks, two assists, and two steals. It was incredible. If Stewart provides that kind of impact, Ryan Young hits the glass, and TJ Power can hit one or two open threes, Duke will be in a much better position to win.

Defending Bacot

RJ Davis is likely going to win ACC Player of the Year. And rightfully so. He’s had a phenomenal season. Davis can get his season average in points. Stopping fellow senior Armando Bacot is the real challenge for Duke. They have bodies to throw at him, but in an attempt to limit foul trouble for Flip, they tried to double Bacot last game and it helped result in open threes or driving lanes for others.

How Jon Scheyer and this coaching staff choose to play Bacot matters. Do they double him? If they do, do they leave Elliot Cadeau, a 21% 3-point shooter, open and force him to shoot the ball? Or do they play Bacot straight up and leave Flip to defend him one-on-one? Either way, one wrong decision would be to leave Harrison Ingram open. He shot 5/9 from distance in game one. 

That’s the game within the game and one matchup that will likely decide the winner. 

Senior night for captain Jeremy Roach, Ryan Young, and Spencer Hubbard. A share of the ACC title is on the line for Duke. The number one seed in the ACC Tournament is still up for grabs. All the storylines are there. Duke just needs to play a bit cleaner than they did in Chapel Hill and they’ll have a chance to wrap up a very good regular season.

The five biggest takeaways from Duke’s 79-64 win over NC State

Duke weathered some rough opening minutes and an off shooting night to beat the Wolfpack by 15 on Monday. Here are our most important thoughts on the game.

The Wolfpack scored the first nine points of the game on Monday, but Duke battled back to still win by 15 points by the time the clock hit triple zeros.

The win, led by 21 points from senior Jeremy Roach, set up a dramatic showdown in Cameron this coming weekend. The Blue Devils host North Carolina in the regular-season finale on Saturday, and no matter what happens in UNC’s Tuesday game against Notre Dame, Duke can clinch at least a share of the ACC regular-season title with a rivalry win.

Before any members of Duke faithful get too far ahead of themselves, however, there is still a game to analyze. Here are our biggest takeaways from Monday’s 79-64 victory over NC State.