The World Baseball Classic final pits USA (5-1) and Japan (6-0) on Tuesday night at loanDepot park in Miami. First pitch is scheduled for 7 p.m. (FS1). Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook’s lines around the Team USA vs. Japan odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Team USA has yet to face Japan in the WBC. Japan won the 1st 2 WBCs in 2006 and 2009. Team USA is the defending champ, winning its 1st title in 2017. These teams meet in the title game for the 1st time in WBC history.
Team USA advanced to the final with a resounding 14-2 victory over Cuba in the semifinals. Philadelphia SS Trea Turner was one of many offensive stars in that game, swatting a pair of home runs, coming on the heels of a go-ahead grand slam in the quarterfinals against Venezuela.
St. Louis 1B Paul Goldschmidt also connected for a 2-run homer against Cuba, while Cardinals 3B Nolan Arenado collected a pair of hits, including a triple, a HBP, RBI and a pair of runs scored.
A pair of St. Louis Cardinals also pitched USA into championship position, as both Adam Wainwright and Miles Mikolas allowed just a single run over 4 IP, with Los Angeles Angels LHP Aaron Loup provided a scoreless IP of work.
Japan was down 3-0 to Mexico in Monday’s semifinal heading to the bottom of the 7th inning. Masataka Yoshida belted a 3-run homer just inside the right-field foul pole, trying things up. Mexico’s Randy Arozarena and Alex Verdugo had back-to-back doubles against Japan’s Yoshinobu Yamamoto for a 4-3 lead in the Top of the 8th. Mexico then tacked on a run to make it 5-3.
In the bottom of the 8th, pinch hitter Hotaka Yamakawa delivered a sacrifice fly to slice the lead to 5-4. In the bottom of the 9th, Lo Angeles Angels’ superstar Shoehi Ohtani posted a leadoff double, Yoshida walked and them Munetaka Murakami smacked a 2-run walk-off double off the wall in right-center field to score Ohtani and pinch runner Ukyo Shuto, as Mexico’s Giovanny Gallegos blew the save and took the loss.
Japan leads the WBC with a .314 batting average through 6 games, posting 7 HRs with a tournament-high 52 RBI and .986 OPS. Team USA has a WBC-high 10 homers in 6 games, posting 47 RBI and a .969 OPS while leading the tournament in SLG at .567.
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Japan at USA projected starters
RHP Merrill Kelly vs. LHP Shota Imanaga
Arizona Diamondbacks RHP Kelly (0-0, 6.00 ERA) makes his 2nd WBC start. He has a 2.00 WHIP, 6.0 BB/9 and 3.0 K/9 through 3 IP.
- Made the start in Pool C play against Colombia last Wednesday, allowing 2 ER, 4 H, 2 BB and 1 K in 3 IP in a no-decision
- Made 61 pitches in that start, using a combination of fastballs and offspeed pitches. Pitchers in the semifinals and final rounds are allowed to throw up to 95 pitches
Imanaga (0-0, 2.25 ERA) makes his 1st WBC start. He has a 0.75 WHIP, 0.0 BB/9 and 11.25 K/9 through 4 IP.
- Has made a pair of relief appearances to date, allowing a solo HR for his only run allowed
- Last appearance came against Italy in the quarterfinals in Tokyo, striking out 2 batters in a perfect 6th inning.
Japan at USA odds
Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:46 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Japan +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | USA -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Japan +1.5 (-140) | USA -1.5 (+115)
- Over/Under (O/U): 10.5 (O: +102 | U: -125)
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Japan at USA picks and predictions
Prediction
USA 7, Japan 5
Moneyline
USA (-125) rolls into this title game brimming with confidence. It also had an extra day of rest, as it vanquished Cuba in the semifinals on Sunday.
Japan (+110) had an emotional comeback Monday, and now faces the quick turnaround having to play on American soil less than 24 hours after a hard battle against Mexico.
The American bats have been on fire since switching venues from pool play in Phoenix to the knockout stages in Miami. USA clobbered Cuba 14-2 in the semis, and it piled up 9 runs and 15 hits in a high-scoring 2-run win over Venezuela in the quarters.
Run line/Against the spread
USA -1.5 (+115) is worth playing lightly at plus-money. The Americans have managed 23 runs in the last 2 games. The concern with backing the home nation is pitching, as USA has a 4.33 ERA, as opposed to Japan’s WBC-best 2.33 ERA.
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Over/Under
The OVER 10.5 (-102) is worth a look, as the USA has easily cashed the Over in both games at loanDepot park in Miami. The Over also cashed in the semis for Japan Monday against Mexico, with 8 of the game’s 11 total runs coming from the bottom of the 7th on. Japan also took care of the Over against Italy in the 2nd round on Thursday.
These are the 2 highest-scoring teams in the WBC, with Japan scoring 53 runs in 6 games, and USA going for 49 runs in 6 games. Look for plenty of fireworks.
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