When you’re doing your first mock draft of the year, and you know you’re going to do a lot more of them, it’s good to take different approaches for each one. There will be the “What I would do” mock, the “What I think teams will do” mock, the “Some team trades for Deshaun Watson for 12 first-rounders and completely upsets the draft order” mock… you get the idea.
For my first mock of 2021, I wanted to keep the teams static without any blockbuster trades, and get a sense of team fit, team needs, and where I align the 32 players in this mock in the big board in my head. So, this mock is about half what I think teams should or would do, and half where I think each player stacks up from the top, with positional value an obvious constraint.
As far as surprises — you may notice that there are no running backs in my first round. This is primarily because I’m conflicted between what I consider to be the two top backs in this class — Alabama’s Najee Harris, and North Carolina’s Javonte Williams. Harris may be the more well-rounded player, but Williams runs with an effective violence I haven’t seen since peak Marshawn Lynch.
2021 NFL Draft: Why Javonte Williams should be your RB1 in this draft class
The question is: Would you take either guy in the first round? I often see Harris mocked to the Dolphins in the late first round. But if I’m running the Miami front office, and I have the choice between a great running back, and a receiver like Florida’s Kadarius Toney, who could immediately help Tua Tagovailoa with the timing and rhythm aspects of his game, I know where I’m going. I’m on Team Kadarius. And if I did take a running back in the first round, it would be Williams over Harris.
You may also notice that I have a “linebacker” — Notre Dame’s Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah — taken with the seventh overall pick. That may seem like an overdraft if you haven’t watched Owusu-Koramoah’s tape and you just go by the linebacker designation. After all, NFL teams played more dime than base in 2020, per Sports Info Solutions. But as was the case for Clemson’s Isaiah Simmons in 2020, Owusu-Koramoah transcends any positional designation. He is the very model of the modern versatile defender. Simmons was taken eighth overall by the Cardinals, and I think Owusu-Koramoah could be similarly coveted.
I also haven’t seen TCU safety Trevon Moehrig mocked as high as I have him (12th overall to the 49ers), but the more I watched his tape, the more I came away believing that this is a do-it-all guy as a crucial position. I am not concerned with dings about his deep-third coverage ability; I think if you want him back there, he’ll be just fine. But that he can also roll up to linebacker depth and shred the living daylights out of whoever has the ball? That’s what you want in a modern defensive back.
With all that said, here’s my first mock of 2021. As always, any criticism should be structured in ad hominem form and misspelled as often as possible.
(All advanced metrics courtesy of Pro Football Focus and Sports Info Solutions).