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Jack Hermansson and Kelvin Gastelum meet in a middleweight bout on the main card at UFC on ESPN+ 30 – also known as UFC Fight Night 172 – Saturday at the UFC’s Fight Island facility on Yas Island, United Arab Emirates. The prelims kick off at 5 p.m. ET on ESPN/ESPN+, followed by the main card set for 8 p.m. ET.
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Hermansson (20-5) will tower over Gastelum (16-5) when the two step toe to toe in the octagon Saturday night. The Norwegian middleweight stands 6-foot-1 to just 5-foot-9 for the American. In addition, Hermansson owns a huge 77.5″ to 71.5″ reach advantage, so you can bet Gastelum will be looking to socially distance himself from his lanky counterpart as much as possible.
Hermansson will be looking for his sixth finish at the middleweight division. He ranks sixth in shortest average fight time in his weight class at 8:05. He’ll be looking to toss his weight around, as he checks in at 21:53 in control time, and 27.1 in control-time percentage, whereas Gastelum isn’t even a blip on the radar in those two departments. Hermansson also ranks ninth with a 19.5 top-position percentage.
Where Gastelum has a huge advantage is with his fists in an upright fight. He has recorded six knockdowns landed, or 0.80 per 15 minutes. Hermansson can hold his own in that department, too, however, as he ranks second among active middleweights with 5.13 significant strikes landed per minute, and he is No. 1 overall with a 2.57 striking differential.
Jack Hermansson vs. Kelvin Gastelum betting odds
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 8 a.m. ET.
Hermansson (-110) does so many different things well, and the height and reach advantage are impressive. However, GASTELUM (-110) is hungry after a two-bout losing skid. He lost a title fight against Israel Adesanya, and followed it up with a disappointing split-decision setback to Darren Till last time out at UFC 244. The southpaw could use a big win to snap him back on track, and he’ll get that with decision victory Saturday. As such, taking GASTELUM ON POINTS (+300) is a particularly attractive prop. You’ll also want to take YES (-118): WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE?
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