The New York Islanders and Tampa Bay Lightning play Game 7 of their Stanley Cup Semifinals series Friday. Puck drop is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET at Amalie Arena. Below, we analyze the Islanders vs. Lightning odds and lines, with NHL picks and predictions.
The Islanders were tattooed 8-0 the last time they visited the Suncoast in Game 5 as they were pushed to the brink. New York responded in Game 6, winning 3-2 in overtime on home ice to force a decisive Game 7.
In their three home games this series, the Lightning have outscored the Islanders 13-4, winning two of the outings. Tampa Bay has scored 36 total goals (4.5 goals per contest) in its eight home games in these playoffs.
Islanders at Lightning: Odds, spread and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 5:27 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Islanders +145 (bet $100 to win $145) | Lightning -175 (bet $175 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Islanders +1.5 (-190) | Lightning -1.5 (+155)
- Over/Under: 5 (O: -125 | U: +105)
Islanders at Lightning: Projected starting goalies
Semyon Varlamov (19-11-4, 2.04 GAA, .929 SV%, 7 SO) vs. Andrei Vasilevskiy (31-10-1, 2.21 GAA, .925 SV%, 5 SO). Stats from regular season.
Varlamov was pulled in Game 5 after coughing up three goals on just 16 shots in 15:27 of the first period. He responded in Game 6 like the true professional he is, turning aside 22 of 24 shots in an elimination game Wednesday as the Isles won 3-2 in OT.
Vasilevskiy posted the shutout in Game 5 on home ice, his third blanking of the postseason. He wasn’t terrible in Game 6, allowing three goals on 28 shots, but Varlamov was just a touch better.
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Islanders at Lightning: Odds, lines, predictions and picks
Prediction
Lightning 2, Islanders 1
Money line (ML)
The LIGHTNING (-175) are moderate favorites in this decisive Game 7, and I expect it will be a nail-biter. It certainly won’t be the blowout we saw in Game 5, the last time these teams skated at Amalie.
Neither team will be keen to take dangerous chances, potentially allowing the opposition an opportunity the other way. So, regardless of which side you play, expect those butterflies in your stomach all night.
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Against the spread (ATS)
The ISLANDERS +1.5 (-190) will cost almost two times your potential return. That’s not usually something I’d advocate, but I think it’s a guarantee that this will be a one-goal game. Four of the six meetings in this series have been decided by one goal with Game 6 going to overtime. I wouldn’t be surprised if this one isn’t decided in regulation, either.
Over/Under (O/U)
UNDER 5 (+105) at plus-money is a tremendous value as scoring will be at a premium in this Game 7. Four games in this series have had a total of five or fewer goals.
Playing UNDER 5.5 (-165) on the alternate line might be a better option if you’d like a little more wiggle room, although, I don’t think you’ll need it.
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