The Iowa State Cyclones (4-7, 1-7 Big 12) are in Forth Worth to take on the No. 4 TCU Horned Frogs (11-0, 8-0) Saturday. Kickoff from Amon G. Carter Stadium is at 4 p.m. ET (FOX). Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Iowa State vs. TCU odds, and make our expert college football picks and predictions.
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TCU, despite already having a berth in the Big 12 title game clinched, comes into this game with far more at stake. A win in this game and a win next week will lock up a playoff berth for a Horned Frogs team that was 28-1 before the season began to win the conference. Coach Sonny Dykes has this team buy into a mission and QB Max Duggan is leading the charge.
Duggan and RB Kendre Miller have continued to pace a team with a fighting instinct to continually come back from deficits to pull out improbable victories. This continued Saturday with a 22-second field goal drill at the end of regulation to pick up a 29-28 victory over Baylor. What looked frantic from afar was all part of a practiced plan for TCU. It made for exciting football for sure.
Iowa State has reached heights it has never known under coach Matt Campbell. While the defense is still good this season (16.5 points allowed per game, 8th nationally), the offense has struggled without last year’s stars, QB Brock Purdy and RB Breece Hall. The duo was drafted into the NFL after the 2021 season.
Averaging 20.7 points per game, the Cyclones will have a challenging time keeping up with TCU who has averaged 39.5 points overall.
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Iowa State at TCU odds
Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 11:22 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Iowa State +310 (bet $100 to win $310) | TCU -390 (bet $390 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Iowa State +9.5 (-105) | TCU -9.5 (-115)
- Over/Under (O/U): 47 (O: -113 | U: -107)
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Iowa State at TCU picks and predictions
Prediction
TCU 24, Iowa State 20
Moneyline
PASS.
TCU (-390) is not worth the juice, despite the fact that it needs this game and will win. Spending almost 4 times your potential profit is not good value on a standalone wager, but this is a solid play to add to a parlay.
Against the spread
BET IOWA STATE +9.5 (-105).
This is just too many points in a game that will not have a lot of scoring involved.
TCU will win, but with the type of defense the Cyclones play, I do not see a large score coming from either side. Iowa State will continue to use the run game and force TCU to have fewer drives and therefore, fewer chances to score.
I do not see this game getting out of hand and I’ll take 9.5 points with the underdog. IOWA STATE +9.5 (-105) is my FAVORITE PLAY.
Over/Under
BET UNDER 47 (-107).
Iowa State can muddy up games with the best of them and are 2-9 to the Under; TCU games are only 6-5 to the Over.
Iowa State will slow this game to a snail’s pace, and it will not allow TCU will Duggan and Miller to run up points. Iowa State plays good run defense while the Horned Frogs want to use Miller to get through this game and onto the Big 12 title game. This will be a quick one. A lot of rushing and not a lot of points are in play in Fort Worth.
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