Best NFL underdog picks and predictions for Week 5

Analyzing NFL Week 5 betting odds and lines, with expert predictions and picks of the 3 best underdogs to cash in on.

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In Week 4, 7 underdogs won their games outright and 10 covered the spread. Our recommended picks went 2-1, as the New York Giants covered the spread in a 20-15 loss to the Dallas Cowboys thanks to a missed field goal in the final minutes and the Jacksonville Jaguars covered the spread in a 24-20 setback to the Houston Texans. The LA Rams did not hold up their end of the bargain, losing 24-18 to the Chicago Bears as 3-point underdogs.

We are 6-5-1 with our picks through 4 weeks.

Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook NFL odds and tab the best NFL Week 5 underdog bets to cash in on among SportbookWire’s NFL expert picks and predictions.

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NFL underdog predictions: Week 5

Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of NFL odds. Lines last updated Thursday at 11:10 a.m. ET. All games Sunday and ET unless noted.

BUCCANEERS (+105) at Falcons – Thursday, 8:15 p.m. (Prime Video)

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have scored over 30 points twice this season. They have 3 good wins over the Washington Commanders, Philadelphia Eagles and Detroit Lions.

The Atlanta Falcons have allowed over 20 points in 3 straight games.

Both teams have a win over the Eagles. Atlanta barely won. The Bucs blew them out.

Atlanta has not covered the spread as a favorite yet this season.

Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield threw 2 TD passes and rushed for another last week.

Atlanta will struggle to keep up with Tampa Bay’s offense, and only 1 team has scored more than 20 points on Tampa Bay’s defense

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COLTS +3 (-115) at Jaguars – 1 p.m. (CBS)

The Jags almost came through with a win against Houston but gave up a late game-winning touchdown. Now they face an Indianapolis Colts team that might be without both QB Anthony Richardson and RB Jonathan Taylor. But it was QB Joe Flacco that led the Colts to a win last week. He has won the last 5 regular-season games he has started or gotten significant playing time in. The Colts scored 27 on the Pittsburgh Steelers defense.

Jacksonville’s best offensive performance this season has been 20 points.

The Colts have scored more than that 3 times this season.

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RAIDERS (+125) at Broncos – 4:05 p.m. (FOX)

That Denver Broncos defense has been tremendous, allowing 9.7 points per game over the last 3 contests. But how many times can you win when your starting quarterback has 60 passing yards (like Bo Nix had in the Broncos’ 10-9 win over the New York Jets)?

The Las Vegas Raiders have won the last 8 meetings. They have scored 20 or more points in 3 straight games.

Don’t trust the Broncos to win 3 games in a row as currently constructed.

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Podcast: Jags Wire recaps Jags’ season opening win vs. Colts

Jags Wire’s James Johnson and Phil Smith look back at the awesome showing in which Gardner Minshew and company had Week 1 against the Colts.

With the Jacksonville Jaguars starting the 2020 regular season off on a high note and defeating the Indianapolis Colts by a score of 27-20, it was only right for us to record a victory episode of “The Bleav in the Jags Podcast” recapping all the action.

We started episode 33 off with a little box score review as Gardner Minshew put up and historic performance Sunday and distributed the ball well to all of his receivers. Afterward, we discussed some key takeaways like the defense’s been but don’t break showing that was just enough to beat Philip Rivers while also causing some concerns.

To listen simply checkout the media player below.

Listen to the latest from Jags Wire’s own James Johnson and Phil Smith on their podcast “Bleav in the Jags.” Subscribe via Apple Podcasts and check out our archived episodes via Bleav Podcasts.

2 Jaguars make PFF’s top-10 rookie rankings for Week 1

The Jags got a crazy amount of contributions from their rookies during their season opener against Indy, but two in particular were huge.

Opening weekend came and went in the blink of an eye for the NFL. Something to savor for football fans everywhere as the season kicked off after so much doubt and anticipation. It was also something to savor for Jaguars fans in particular, who witnessed their team come away with a shocking 27-20 win after many in the media tried to persuade them that the team was “tanking for Trevor.”

A big part of the Jaguars’ win on Sunday was the impact that rookies had on the overall team performance. The roster underwent a huge overhaul during the course of the offseason and many were wondering whether the team would be able to remain competitive as a result.

The 2020 rookie class more than answered the call on Sunday. There were seven first-year pros who made meaningful contributions to the team’s 1-0 start to 2020.

Both rookie receivers Collin Johnson and Laviska Shenault Jr. made their presence felt on offense. Johnson had a grab to help the Jags convert a third-down and put on an athletic display at the end of the game with a backflip while in victory formation. Shenault saw a 62% snap count and was able to register three receptions for 37 yards and a touchdown.

New offensive coordinator Jay Gruden involved Shenault out of the backfield, too, at one time deploying putting him in the wildcat for a reasonable gain. Needless to say, it got fans on Twitter very excited.

Among all of these impressive debuts, there were two rookies on the Jags’ roster who had breakout games on Sunday. In fact, their showings were so impressive that the Jags were the only team to have two players featured on Pro Football Focus’ list of top-10 graded rookies.

10. RB James Robinson, Jacksonville Jaguars

Robinson recorded 62 rushing yards on 16 carries, with 56 yards coming after contact, earning a 65.7 rushing grade that ranked 11th of 26 running backs. He didn’t get much help from the line at times, as he was contacted at or behind the line of scrimmage on nine of 16 carries, but he still managed to break off a couple of 10-plus-yard gains despite that.

Head coach Doug Marrone said his decision to move on from Leonard Fournette boiled down to what the staff saw on the practice field, an area where James Robinson seemingly flourished. The former Illinois State star was the only back in the NFL to have 100% of their team’s running back rushing attempts.

The Jaguars’ new starting running back owns a piece of history after his impressive debut, setting a new opening weekend rushing record for undrafted rookies with 62 yards. That’s, well worthy of the tenth spot on PFF’s list of rookies this week.

2. CB C.J. Henderson, Jacksonville Jaguars

CJ Henderson might have put in the best rookie debut in franchise history. It is easy to over-exaggerate after one week, but the job he did shutting down the left side of the field was nothing short of phenomenal. PFF said so themselves:

The No. 9 overall pick then earned an 84.2 PFF grade against Indianapolis in Week 1, the second-best grade of the week at the position. His grade when lined up on the outside was actually the best we have ever recorded by a rookie in Week 1 in the PFF era, and he allowed only two catches on six man-coverage targets (17 such coverage snaps) while making four plays made on the ball.

There was no doubt that the Jaguars were going to rely on their young guys to produce, but the responsibility placed on Henderson’s shoulders could have seen him crumble early.

Corner is a notoriously difficult position to translate to, yet Henderson handled the pressure like a seasoned pro. His success against a four-time Pro Bowler meant the team kept him on the field for 73 of the teams 74 defensive plays, ranked third amongst all defenders.

Both Robinson and Henderson will need to continue their growth heading forward, and if they do, the Jags have a good chance to exceed expectations. Both will be interesting to watch as the Jags take on another divisional rival in the Tennessee Titans Week 2 in Nashville.

Gardner Minshew receives AFC Offensive Player of the Week nomination

Gardner Minshew was nominated for yet another award, but this time it was for the AFC Offensive Player of the Week.

After his surgical performance against the Indianapolis Colts, Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Gardner Minshew II has been nominated for the NFL’s AFC Offensive Player of the Week Award.

Minshew’s performance comes after the team went all in on him by trading veteran Nick Foles and electing to not spend an early draft selection at quarterback. With the Jags also parting ways with veterans Calais Campbell, A.J. Bouye, Marcell Dareus, and Leonard Fournette, many assumed the Jags were gearing up to enter the Trevor Lawrence sweepstakes, but Minshew silenced that with a historically accurate performance against Indy.

If Minshew can win the nomination it will be one of many pieces of hardware he’s collected since entering the league. As a rookie, he was able to win the Pepsi Rookie of the Week Award seven times. He was also named Snickers Hungriest Player of the Year, too.

Minshew not only put up the crazy aforementioned stats Sunday, he made history in the Jags’ record books, too. He joined former Jags Mark Brunell and David Garrard as the only players in franchise history to throw for at least three touchdowns on kickoff weekend.

Listen to the latest from Jags Wire’s own James Johnson and Phil Smith on their podcast “Bleav in the Jags.” Subscribe via Apple Podcasts and check out our archived episodes via Bleav Podcasts.

 

Winners and losers from Jags’ impressive Week 1 victory over Colts

The Jags had several players show up against the Colts but CJ Henderson was a strong standout in his first-ever game with the Jags.

The Jacksonville Jaguars got the 2020 season off to a promising start, beating the Indianapolis Colts at home 27-20 in front of a crowd of about 17,000. After a rough opening, a 4th down stand and a turnover turned the tides as Jacksonville would take over the game from then on.

Here are your Week 1 winners and losers following the season opener:

Winners:

CB CJ Henderson

Many fans questioned Dave Caldwell’s selection of CJ Henderson with the ninth overall selection back in April. Henderson no doubt was a stud athlete but many questioned his tackling ability and physicality. Against the Colts, Henderson was the best player on the field.

Henderson nabbed the first interception of his career off of Philip Rivers and set the Jaguars’ offense up to tie the game. Henderson also sealed the victory when he deflected a pass on fourth down deep in Jaguars’ territory. It was no doubt an impressive debut for the rookie corner, finishing with five tackles, three pass deflections and one interception.

Myles Jack

What a sight to be reminded of. Myles Jack looked born anew. He was all over the field creating plays. From key run stops to creating pressure on Rivers, Jack did it all. Best of all? It looked natural. Jack utilized his impressive speed and fled from sideline to sideline, corralling ball carriers into his arms. Simply put, it was good to see him playing loose and free.

Jack finished the game with 11 tackles and registered the team’s only sack. Heading forward, it will be exciting to see how Jack transitions to his new position but early signs are definitely positive.

Coaching Staff

Sunday’s performance was an unexpected one for Jacksonville. Many fans didn’t expect the Jaguars to come away with a Week 1 victory against the Colts. However, coach Doug Marrone and staff had different ideas.

The team, for the most part, looked well-coached and made very few errors. The defensive side of the ball had some lapses in coverage, but aside from those couple blunders, it was a refreshing sight to see such a prepared team.

If Marrone and company can bring this momentum to Tennessee, the Jags have a good shot to start the 2020 season at 2-0. The players seem to have bought in, now it’s time to continue to execute on the field.

Losers:

Roster Depth

Behind the starters, this roster is skin and bones. Several players left the game at certain points in the game and the dropoff was severe. The defense, especially, is very thin.

Luckily, Henderson and Josh Allen were able to return following some injury scares. Allen ended up dealing with some lower-leg cramps and Henderson had a concussion test that ultimately was negative. Nonetheless, it was a bit unnerving to see Chris Claybrooks, a seventh-round rookie, starting at cornerback against a future hall-of-fame quarterback.

Hopefully, as the season goes on, the Jaguars can remain healthy and limit the time seen by their youthful depth pieces.

Gardner Minshew on Jags’ win vs. Colts: ‘That’s just a [expletive] glimpse’

Despite his success, Minshew had a simple message after Week 1’s win and that was to not let it make them complacent.

The Jacksonville Jaguars stunned the Indianapolis Colts in their season opener with a 27-20 victory. A key part of that was the performance of Gardner Minshew II, who completed a staggering 19-of-20 passes for 173 yards, and three touchdowns, which was good for a quarterback rating of 142.3.

However, despite his success, Minshew had a simple message after Week 1’s win and that was to not let it make them complacent.

“That [win] just shows what we can do right there,” Minshew said. “That’s just a [expletive] glimpse. We ain’t even scratching the surface yet. Do not be satisfied with 1-0. We got another division game coming up so bring it this week in practice. Iron sharpens iron.”

This is certainly the type of leadership fans should be happy to see when looking back at all the leadership the team lost with the departures of veterans like Calais Campbell, Marcell Dareus, and A.J. Bouye. With a long road left, there is still a lot of football to be played and one of their harder games is coming up as the Jags will have to travel to Tennessee Week 2.

In the meantime, there is certainly nothing wrong with the Jags enjoying their Sunday victory until tomorrow as they just defeated a team some feel will be in the running for a wildcard bid. They especially should be encouraged by the boost their rookie class provided through players like James Robinson, Laviska Shenault Jr., and C.J. Henderson to name a few.

Simply put, if the Jags can continue to improve on a week to week basis and play hard as they did against Indy, they will easily exceed the expectations of the nation. That said, fans should buckle up because the Jags have shown us that this season could be very entertaining.

WR Dede Westbrook listed among Jags’ Week 1 inactives vs. Colts

The Jags have one of their top receivers from 2019 as a healthy scratch to start 2020.

The Jacksonville Jaguars released their list of inactives for Week 1’s season opener against the Indianapolis Colts. The most notable name to surface on the list was that of receiver Dede Westbrook, who is a healthy scratch despite being third in receiving yards last season with 660 yards.

Many may be puzzled by the Jags’ decision to not have Westbrook on the active roster, however, their young receivers showed a lot of promise when he missed time in camp with a shoulder injury. In addition to rookie receivers  Laviska Shenault and Collin Johnson flashing, Keelan Cole wasn’t far behind D.J. Chark Jr. performance wise, which says a lot.

On defense, the notable name to surface was Cassius Marsh. He flashed at times during camp and offers the Jags a decent option to rush the passer. Then again, maybe they needed to go with more help on the offensive side with injuries affecting the running back and tight end positions.

 

Colts vs. Jaguars: Week 1 Jags Wire staff picks and predictions

The Jags Wire staff isn’t feeling too confident in the Jags getting a win Week 1, though the element of surprise could help the Jags tremendously.

Finally, Jacksonville Jaguars football has returned and the Cardiac Cats will have the luxury of taking on their divisional foes in the Indianapolis Colts right out of the gate. Sunday’s regular season opener will occur after the Jags ended their 2019 regular season with a victory over Indy, and they could make it two in a row with some luck.

With all of us going into Week 1’s game without any preseason football, our writers at the Jags Wire did their best to make a call on the outcome of Sunday’s opener. Here’s a summary of our predictions as the Jags begin their journey into the 2020 season:

James Johnson (@Sportsgrind_Don): Colts 35, Jaguars 24

Predicting this game would be easier had there been a preseason, but the coronavirus pandemic prevented that and I based my prediction off the talent level of both teams. The Jags initial roster had 16 rookies on it and they added two more yesterday through their practice squad — at least for Week 1. Additionally, going into this game with four rookie cornerbacks against Philip Rivers just isn’t ideal. For those reasons, I’m going with Indy, however, I don’t think fans should get too high or low by what the outcome of this game is because several teams in the NFL will have to shake off the rust.

Phil Smith (@PhiltheFilipino): Jaguars 17, Colts 13

In a year that has been unlike any other, it’s best to expect the unexpected. The Jaguars have spent the last few months hearing nothing but criticism for all of their offseason moves and will now have the opportunity to show everyone that they’ve been making the right decisions. I believe this game will come down to which unproven secondary makes the least amount of mistakes. Given the fact that the Jaguars’ wide receiver group is better than the Colts’, I feel like Indy’s secondary will give up more big plays. The weather may also play a significant factor, too, so I’m expecting a sloppy one. Jaguars pull off the Week 1 upset.

Daniel Griffis (@DanDGriffis): Colts 27, Jaguars 16

The Jaguars are the youngest team in the NFL and with youth comes growing pains. The Colts have the best roster in the AFC South and look to be headed for a playoff run. While the Jags may jump out early, I expect the Colts talent to ultimately overwhelm an inexperienced Jacksonville team.

Robert Ricks (@rrickswriting): Colts 31, Jaguars 17

Philip Rivers has historically had great success against the Jags, going 7-2 in his career during his time with the Los Angeles/San Diego Chargers. Now as Rivers begins a new chapter with the Indianapolis Colts, things won’t be different. The lack of a true preseason will hurt this young Jags roster, leading to many mistakes on the defensive side. Colts win big.

Will Frost (@willfrost_): Colts 33, Jaguars 17

This should have been a tough game to call as both squads were on the right side of blowout wins in the 2019 series. Whilst both rosters look significantly different from last year, the Colts have retooled in a way that makes them seem like a more dangerous team. I’m not sure letting most of their starters go had the same effect in Jacksonville, though.

The team has struggled to stop the run for two seasons now and the addition of Jonathan Taylor to the Colts’ backfield won’t help matters there. It may not be a pretty one.

Jacob DeLawrence (@_Jdela): Colts 24, Jaguars 17

Year 2 of Minshew Mania is set to kick off when the Jags host the Colts. This is a young Jags team that is missing many veterans for a myriad of reasons. The Colts also have the Jags’ number. Combine that with Philip Rivers being under center and it’s a recipe for a Week 1 loss for the Jags. Minshew tries valiantly, but can’t pull it off late.

Jags elevate RB Nathan Cottrell, TE Ben Ellefson from practice squad for opener vs. Colts

The Jags decided to call two players up from their practice squad to help them out at the running back and tight end positions.

With the Jacksonville Jaguars down a few players at the running back and tight end positions, the team decided to elevate both rookies Nathan Cottrell and Ben Ellefson to their active/inactive roster. Due to the new NFL rules which allows each team to expand their game day rosters by two, there will be no need for the Jags to make any cuts as a result of both promotions.

These transactions come after the Jags placed running back Devine Ozigbo (hamstring) on injured reserve this week and ruled tight end Tyler Davis out with a knee injury. The Jags will also enter the game without second-year running back Ryquell Armstead, who was placed on the Reserve/COVID-19 list after final cuts.

Per a Jags spokesperson, the rule in which the Jags utilized to promote both players is explained in Article 33, Section 5 of the 2020 Collective Bargaining Agreement.

In accordance with Article 33, Section 5 of the 2020 CBA, each club may elevate a maximum of two players each week from its practice squad to its active/inactive List as a 54th or 55th player without the player first terminating his practice squad contract.

Any elevated practice squad player shall automatically revert to the club’s practice squad at 4 p.m. ET on the first business day following such game without being subject to waivers.

A practice squad player may be elevated to a club’s active/inactive list as a 54th or 55th player for a maximum of two regular season or postseason games.

If a Practice Squad player is elevated to a club’s active/inactive List as a 54th or 55th player for any regular season game, the player’s weekly compensation specified in Paragraph 4 of the practice squad player contract will be adjusted to one-seventeenth (1/17th) of the Paragraph 5 minimum salary for players on a club’s active/inactive list with the practice squad player’s number of credited seasons for such game

Both Cottrell and Ellefson joined the Jags as undrafted free-agents after the 2020 draft. Cottrell attended Georgia Tech where he exited with 640 career rushing yards and four touchdowns.

Ellefson, on the other hand, attended North Dakota State where he was able to garner 463 career receiving yards for 16 touchdowns.

How to watch, stream, listen to Colts vs. Jags

The Jags’ season opener is almost here and there are several ways to catch the action.

The Jacksonville Jaguars season opener against the Indianapolis Colts is almost here, starting what will be a very important 2020 campaign for the Cardiac Cats.

While the Colts ultimately own the all-time series between the two teams with a 24-14 record, the Jags at least could have some momentum after beating the Colts in their last meeting, which was their season finale of 2019. However, the Colts were able to win the meting before that by a score of 33-13.

Since then both teams have made new additions, but with no preseason to watch either beforehand, fans are going into this one somewhat in the dark. On one side will be the NFL’s youngest team with 18 rookies on their active roster. On the other, will be a team with a veteran quarterback who some are wondering will be enough to get the Colts over the hump in Philip Rivers.

Simply put, we won’t be able to make a judgment on what either team could be until tomorrow’s game. For those who want to tune in, all the info you will need is below:

Game Information

Indianapolis Colts vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Streaming

FuboTV (try it free)

Television

Action News CBS 47 (locally)

Radio

1010XL AM and 92.5 FM (flagship) Jaguars Radio Network

Sirius: Jaguars internet channel 814 (feed channel 98) Colts internet channel  813 (feed channel 106) 

Extras

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