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The Baylor Bears (18-12, 10-9 Big 12) welcome the No. 3 Houston Cougars (26-4, 18-1) to Foster Pavilion in Waco, Texas, Saturday night. Tip is set for 10 p.m. ET (ESPN). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s college basketball odds around the Houston vs. Baylor odds, and make our expert college basketball picks and predictions.
Houston, which is No. 3 in the USA TODAY Sports Men’s Basketball Coaches Poll, enters on a 9-game win streak. It beat the Kansas Jayhawks 65-59 at home Monday, failing to cover as a 9.5-point favorite. The Cougars are just 1-3 against the spread (ATS) in their last 4 yet 4-3 ATS in their last 7 contests. Houston is 16-14 ATS on the season.
The Bears are riding a 2-game win streak into their final game of the regular season, beating the TCU Horned Frogs 61-58 on the road Tuesday night. They failed to cover as a 4-point favorite and are just 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 games. Baylor is 9-18-2 ATS on the season and lost 76-65 to the Cougars on the road Feb. 10.
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Houston at Baylor odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:35 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Houston -210 (bet $210 to win $100) | Baylor +170 (bet $100 to win $170)
- Against the spread (ATS): Houston -4.5 (-115) | Baylor +4.5 (-105)
- Over/Under (O/U): 130.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Houston at Baylor picks and predictions
Prediction
Houston 68, Baylor 61
Moneyline
PASS.
There’s no playable moneyline wager here. The Cougars have been rolling, yet they are far too expensive to take to win outright. Avoid pulling for the upset by Baylor as well.
Against the spread
BET HOUSTON -4.5 (-115).
Baylor is one of 2 teams in the country (VCU being the other at 0-2 ATS) that has yet to cover as an underdog. The Bears are 0-7-2 ATS. They have lost outright as a favorite in 2 of their last 5. Things aren’t going well for Baylor, and against a top-5 team like Houston, it should struggle.
The Cougars have covered in 3 of their last 4 games as a single-digit favorite, and they have covered in 3 straight contests on the road. They have allowed 59 or fewer in 3 of their last 6, so they should defend well enough to pull away by this margin.
Take HOUSTON -4.5 (-115).
Over/Under
BET UNDER 130.5 (-105).
The Bears have gone Under in 3 straight games and have defended at a high level in recent competitions. They have held opponents to 61 or fewer in 2 straight. Baylor’s offense hasn’t been overly impressive either, scoring 74 or fewer in 7 straight games against far weaker defenses.
The Cougars, who have scored 70 or fewer in 3 of their last 4, have gone Under in 4 of their last 6. Houston is 14-16 O/U on the season and has allowed 61 or fewer in 3 of its last 4.
Considering those defensive trends, back UNDER 130.5 (-105).
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