Tag: Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays odds predictions pick betting line spread

Houston Astros at Toronto Blue Jays odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Wednesday’s Houston Astros at Toronto Blue Jays odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Houston Astros (43-42) and Toronto Blue Jays (39-46) meet Wednesday for the 3rd game of a 4-game series. First pitch from Rogers Centre is set for 7:07 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Astros vs. Blue Jays odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Houston leads 3-2

Toronto almost blew a 7-0 lead and escaped with the 7-6 win over Houston Tuesday while covering as a -109 home favorite. The win ended a 2-game skid for Toronto, including a 3-1 loss in Monday’s series opener.

The loss ended a 3-game win streak for the Astros. RHP Spender Arrighetti allowed 6 ER, 6 H, 4 BB with 5 K in 4 IP to take the loss.

Astros at Blue Jays projected starters

RHP Ronel Blanco vs. LHP Yusei Kikuchi

Blanco (8-3, 2.49 ERA) makes his 16th start. He has a 1.01 WHIP, 3.7 BB/9 and 8.4 K/9 in 90 1/3 IP.

  • Last start: Loss, 5 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 3 BB, 5 K in a 7-2 loss vs. the New York Mets Friday
  • Career vs. Toronto: 1-0, 1.15 ERA (15 2/3 IP, 2 ER), 3 H, 6 BB, 12 K in3 appearances (2 starts)

Kikuchi (4-8, 4.18 ERA) makes his 18th start. He has a 1.31 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 9.5 K/9 in 88 1/3 IP.

  • Last start: Loss, 5 IP, 4 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 5 K in a 16-5 loss vs. the New York Yankees Friday
  • Career vs. Houston: 1-5, 6.27 ERA (60 1/3 IP, 42 ER), 1.64 WHIP, 7.5 K/9 in 13 starts

Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.

Astros at Blue Jays odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Tuesday at 10:28 p.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Astros -105 (bet $105 to win $100) | Blue Jays -115 (bet $115 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Astros -1.5 (+155) | Blue Jays +1.5 (-190)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

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Astros at Blue Jays picks and predictions

Prediction

Astros 5, Blue Jays 4

Moneyline

LEAN ASTROS (-105).

Houston is 3-1 in its last 4 road games and 8-2 in its last 10 overall while the Blue Jays are only 3-3 in their last 6 at home and 4-6 in their last 10 overall.

The Astros are also 2-1 in their last 3 matchups vs. Toronto. But be aware the Blue Jays are 4-2 in its last 6 meetings with the Astros in Toronto.

Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

I expect the Blue Jays to cover here, especially with how solid they’ve been vs. Houston at home, but a line set at +1.5 (-190) is far too risky to bet on. Bet on the moneyline and/or total instead.

Over/Under

BET OVER 8.5 (-105).

The Over has hit in 4 of Houston’s last 5 games and is 6-3-1 in its last 10. For Toronto, the Over is 5-1 in its last 6 home games and is 8-1-1 in its last 10 overall.

Be aware that the Under is 6-3-1 in the last 10 Houston-Toronto matchups.

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Houston Astros at Toronto Blue Jays odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Monday’s Houston Astros at Toronto Blue Jays odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Houston Astros (42-41) and Toronto Blue Jays (38-45) begin a 4-game series Monday. First pitch from Rogers Centre is scheduled for 3:07 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Astros vs. Blue Jays odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Astros lead 2-1

The Blue Jays host the Astros on Canada Day, which is roughly the equivalent of July 4th in the States.

Despite a spirited comeback in front of a sell-out crowd, Toronto suffered a 7-6 defeat against the Boston Red Sox last season on Canada Day as the Over (9) cashed.

In 2022, the Jays topped the Tampa Bay Rays 9-2 on the Canadian holiday, again as the Over (9) connected. In 2021, the Seattle Mariners roughed up the Jays 7-2, with Toronto failing to win despite being a heavy favorite (-242) as the Under (10) hit.

The Jays didn’t play on Canada Day in 2020 due to the COVID-19 global pandemic. In 2019, Toronto pounded the Kansas City Royals as a moderate favorite (-151) as the Over (9) hit, but lost 9-1 to the Detroit Tigers in 2018 on Canada Day, again as the Over (9) cashed.

Toronto is just 2-5 in the past 7 Canada Day appearances, with the Over going 4-1 in the past 5 holiday games for the Jays.

The Blue Jays lost 2 of the final 3 home games against the New York Yankees after opening the 4-game series with a 9-2 win Thursday. Toronto has won 3 of the past 5 games, and the Over is on a 7-0 run while going 10-2-1 in the past 13 outings.

Astros at Blue Jays projected starters

RHP Hunter Brown vs. RHP Yariel Rodriguez

Brown (5-5, 4.37 ERA) makes his 16th start and 17th appearance. He has a 1.37 WHIP, 3.6 BB/9 and 10.0 K/9 in 80 1/3 IP.

  • Last start: Win, 6 IP, 0 R, 2 H, 3 BB, 7 K in 5-2 home victory vs. Colorado Rockies Tuesday
  • 2024 road splits: 2-3, 5.87 ERA (30 2/3 IP, 20 ER), 1.70 WHIP, .313 opponents’ batting average (OBA), 4 HR, 11 BB, 21 K in 6 starts and 1 relief appearance
  • June splits: 4-0, 1.16 ERA (31 IP, 4 ER), 0.94 WHIP, .189 OBA, 3 HR, 8 BB, 36 K in 4 starts
  • Career vs. Blue Jays: Loss, 6 IP, 3 ER 3 H (2 HR), 2 BB, 7 K in 5-1 road setback June 6, 2023, in only career start vs. Jays

Rodriguez (0-2, 5.94 ERA) makes his 6th start. He has a 1.92 WHIP, 5.9 BB/9 and 9.2 K/9 in 16 2/3 IP.

  • Last start: Loss, 1 1/3 IP, 4 ER (5 R), 2 H, 3 BB, 1 K in 7-1 road setback vs. Cleveland Guardians June 21
  • 2024 home splits: 0-0, 3.68 ERA (7 1/3 IP, 3 ER), 2.05 WHIP, .333 OBA, 1 HR, 5 BB, 7 K in 2 starts
  • Never faced Astros before

Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.

Astros at Blue Jays odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Sunday at 10:03 p.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Astros -145 (bet $145 to win $100) | Blue Jays +120 (bet $100 to win $120)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Astros -1.5 (+115) | Blue Jays +1.5 (-140)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Astros at Blue Jays picks and predictions

Prediction

Astros 7, Blue Jays 3

Moneyline

The ASTROS (-145) are worth a play as they look to spoil the Canada Day festivities in front of what will likely be a packed house in T-Dot.

The Blue Jays (+120) have struggled in recent seasons on Canada Day, winning just twice in the past 7 appearances on the national holiday. Now, Toronto must contend with a red-hot Brown, who streaks in with 4 straight victories, with his last loss coming May 22.

Run line/Against the spread

The ASTROS -1.5 (+115) aren’t a bad play at plus-money if you’re a little less conservative.

Houston has outscored the opposition 19-4 in Brown’s past 4 starts since June 8, winning each game by at least 3 runs. So, if you like the Astros to win, you should like them to get the job done on the run line.

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Over/Under

OVER 8.5 (-110) is worth the look in this holiday game in the Great White North.

The total has gone high in 4 of the past 5 Canada Day appearances for the Blue Jays. They also streak in on a 7-0 run to the Over, with the total going high at a 10-2-1 clip in the previous 13 contests.

While all of the above sounds great, know that the Under is 5-1 in the past 6 meetings in this series, so there is still some risk.

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Houston Astros at Toronto Blue Jays odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Thursday’s Houston Astros at Toronto Blue Jays odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Houston Astros (36-26) and Toronto Blue Jays (35-28) wrap up their 4-game series on Thursday, which is also their 7th and final meeting of the season.  First pitch from Rogers Centre in Toronto will be at 7:07 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Astros vs. Blue Jays odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Tied 3-3

The Astros have lost 3 of their last 4 games, including their last 2 to the Blue Jays. They’re now 4 1/2 games behind the Texas Rangers in the AL West. Houston owns the best pitching staff in baseball, leading the league with a team ERA of 3.25 with the 5th-most quality starts (30).

The Blue Jays are heating up, winning 9 of their last 12 games, a stretch that includes wins in 6 of their last 7. Star SS Bo Bichette leads the team in average (.331), home runs (14) and RBI (42), which has helped Toronto rank 3rd in team batting average (.264) and 9th in runs (292).

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Houston Astros at Toronto Blue Jays projected starters

LHP Framber Valdez vs. RHP Jose Berrios

Valdez (6-4, 2.16 ERA) makes his 13th start. He has a 1.03 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9 and 9.6 K/9 in 79 innings.

  • Only has 1 start this season with more than 3 ER allowed
  • In his last 3 starts, he’s allowed 1 ER with 19 K’s in 22 IP

Berrios (5-4, 3.66 ERA) makes his 13th start. He has a 1.25 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 8.6 K/9 in 71 1/3 innings.

  • Has not allowed more than 3 runs in his last 6 starts, lowering his ERA from 5.29 to 3.66
  • Has pitched at least 5 innings in all but 1 of his 12 starts

Astros at Blue Jays odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:30 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Astros -120 (bet $120 to win $100) | Blue Jays +100 (bet $100 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Astros -1.5 (+135) | Blue Jays +1.5 (-165)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -120 | U: +100)

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Astros at Blue Jays picks and predictions

Prediction

Astros 4, Blue Jays 3

Moneyline

This is a tough game to pick because both teams have been playing well of late and have strong starters on the bump. Valdez has been spectacular this season for Houston and always gives the Astros 6-plus solid innings, which gives me confidence that the Astros will bounce back from this 2-game losing skid and win on Thursday night.

BET ASTROS (-120) to win outright.

Run line/Against the spread

This should be a close game, just as Wednesday’s 3-2 matchup was. For that reason, I don’t love either side of the run line. There’s not enough benefit to taking the Blue Jays +1.5 at -165, especially with betting the Astros SU at -120.

And with this pitching matchup likely making it a lower-scoring game, I’m hesitant to take the Astros -1.5. PASS on the run line.

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Over/Under

The total has only gone Over in 2 of the Blue Jays’ last 10 games, according to Covers, and in 5 of the Astros’ last 10. With Valdez and Berrios as the starters, this should be a low-scoring game, which is why the total is set at only 8.

Yet, I still like the UNDER 8 (+100) at Rogers Centre.

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Houston Astros at Toronto Blue Jays odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Wednesday’s Houston Astros at Toronto Blue Jays odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Houston Astros (36-25) and Toronto Blue Jays (34-28) play the 3rd game of a 4-game series at Rogers Centre Wednesday. First pitch is slated for 7:07 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Astros vs. Blue Jays odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Astros lead 3-2

The Astros had won 4 straight road games before being toppled 5-1 by the Blue Jays Tuesday. Houston had scored 8 runs per game over those 4 road victories and has won 14 of its last 20 games overall but still remains 4 1/2 games back of the AL West-leading Texas Rangers.

The Blue Jays won behind 13 strikeouts from RHP Kevin Gausman Tuesday. Toronto has won 8 of its last 11 games and has scored 4.1 runs per game over that stretch.

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Astros at Blue Jays projected starters

RHP Ronel Blanco vs. RHP Chris Bassitt

Blanco (1-0, 4.15 ERA) is in line for his 2nd start and 11th appearance. He has a 1.90 WHIP, 5.2 BB/9 and 10.9 K/9 in 17 1/3 innings.

  • Only 2023 MLB start: Win, 5 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 7 H, 3 BB, 5 K in a 5-2 home victory vs. Los Angeles Angels Thursday
  • 2023 AAA Stats: 2-0, 0.56 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 11.8 K/9 in 16 IP

Bassitt (6-4, 3.34 ERA) makes his 13th start. He has a 1.07 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and 7.9 K/9 in 74 innings.

  • Last start: Win, 7 2/3 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 0 BB, 8 K in a 3-0 road win at the New York Mets Friday
  • Career vs. Astros: 4-3, 3.90 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 49 K across 11 starts and 1 relief appearance
  • 2023 Home splits: 2-1, 2.16 ERA (33 1/3 IP, 8 ER) with a .127 OBA in 5 starts

Astros at Blue Jays odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:15 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Astros +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Blue Jays -155 (bet $155 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Astros +1.5 (-150) | Blue Jays +1.5 (+125)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: -120 | U: +100)

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Astros at Blue Jays picks and predictions

Prediction

Astros 4, Blue Jays 3

Moneyline

I like putting a small bet on ASTROS (+125) as underdogs in this matchup.

Houston has been a road warrior this year, going 18-11 away from home. The Astros have a young talented arm on the bump and he got his first-start jitters out of the way and should settle in against the Blue Jays Wednesday.

Run line/Against the spread

I do not think there is a clear favorite in this game. These two teams are playing good baseball with Houston going 14-6 over its last 20 games and Toronto going 7-3 over its last 10. That’s why I am going to avoid the run line on both sides of this matchup.

AVOID.

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Over/Under

My lean in this game is the UNDER 9 (+100) but go with a half-unit at most.

Houston and Toronto have both gone under this total in 3 of their last 5 games but there are otherwise no heavy trends favoring either side.

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Houston Astros at Toronto Blue Jays odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Tuesday’s Houston Astros at Toronto Blue Jays odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Houston Astros (36-24) play the 2nd game of a 4-game series against the Toronto Blue Jays (33-28) on Tuesday at Rogers Centre. First pitch is scheduled for 7:07 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Astros vs. Blue Jays odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Astros lead 3-1

In Monday’s lopsided 11-4 win over the Blue Jays, the Astros got home runs from 4 different players including OF Yordan Alvarez who hit his 16th of the season. Houston is 7-3 in its last 10 games and is 3 1/2 games behind the Texas Rangers for 1st place in the AL West.

Monday’s loss snapped a 4-game win streak for the Blue Jays. Toronto is 9 1/2 games back of the Tampa Bay Rays in the AL East despite going 7-3 in its last 10 contests.

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Astros at Blue Jays projected starters

RHP Hunter Brown vs. RHP Kevin Gausman

Brown (5-2, 3.61 ERA) makes his 12th start. He has a 1.24 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 10.7 K/9 through 62 1/3 IP.

  • Has struck out 8 or more batters in 4 straight starts
  • Has surrendered 3 or more ER in 3 of his last 5 turns

Gausman (4-3, 2.76 ERA) makes his 13th start. He has a 1.12 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 12.0 K/9 through 75 IP.

  • Has tallied 7-plus K’s in 9 of his first 12 outings
  • Apr. 17 at Astros: Loss, 4 2/3 IP, 8 R (7 ER), 7 H, 2 BB, 5 K in a 9-2 loss

Astros at Blue Jays odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:06 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Astros +115 (bet $100 to win $115) | Blue Jays -140 (bet $140 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Astros +1.5 (-175) | Blue Jays -1.5 (+145)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -120 | U: +100)

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Astros at Blue Jays picks and predictions

Prediction

Blue Jays 4, Astros 3

Moneyline

The Astros have won 3 of the first 4 meetings this season, but I’ll back the BLUE JAYS (-140) at home on Tuesday. Gausman boasts a 1.72 ERA and a 0.93 WHIP at home compared to a 3.76 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP on the road this season.

Run line/Against the spread

Even though the Astros +1.5 (-175) should keep this game close, taking their run line isn’t worth the risk at the current odds. PASS.

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Over/Under

LEAN UNDER 7.5 (+100).

Brown has been giving up multiple runs in recent starts, but Gausman has surrendered a total of just 5 earned runs in his last 5 starts. Three of those starts were a home game for the Blue Jays.

The Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Toronto and is 3-1-1 in the last 5 meetings overall.

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Houston Astros at Toronto Blue Jays odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Monday’s Houston Astros at Toronto Blue Jays odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Houston Astros (35-24) will begin a 4-game series against the Toronto Blue Jays (33-27) on Monday at Rogers Centre. First pitch is scheduled for 7:07 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Astros vs. Blue Jays odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Astros lead 2-1

The Astros lost 2-1 to the Los Angeles Angels on Sunday, snapping a 3-game winning streak. Houston is only 3 1/2 games back of the Texas Rangers for 1st place in the AL West.

On Sunday, the Blue Jays defeated the New York Mets 6-4 to give them 4 consecutive wins. Despite winning 7 of its last 10 games, Toronto is still 8 1/2 games behind the Tampa Bay Rays in the AL East.

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Astros at Blue Jays projected starters

RHP Brandon Bielak vs. RHP Alek Manoah

Beilak (2-2, 3.19 ERA) makes his 6th start. He has a 1.45 WHIP, 3.5 BB/9 and 8.1 K/9 in 31 innings.

  • Has surrendered fewer than 2 ER in 3 of his 5 starts
  • Has also allowed 5 HRs in his 5 starts

Manoah (1-6, 5.46 ERA) makes his 13th start. He has a 1.77 WHIP, 6.4 BB/9 and 7.5 K/9 in 57 2/3 innings.

  • Has given up multiple ER in 10 of his first 12 starts.
  • Walks have been a major issue; has walked 3 or more batters in 8 of his 12 starts

Astros at Blue Jays odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:55 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Astros +100 (bet $100 to win $100) | Blue Jays -120 (bet $120 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Astros +1.5 (-185) | Blue Jays -1.5 (+150)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 10 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Astros at Blue Jays picks and predictions

Prediction

Astros 6, Blue Jays 5

Moneyline

With Manoah struggling mightily this season, I’ll back the ASTROS (+100) on the road. While the Blue Jays are 15-10 at home, the Astros are 17-10 on the road this season.

Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

The Astros should keep this game within 2 runs and I have them winning outright. That being said, taking Houston to cover the run line isn’t worth the risk at the current odds (-185).

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Over/Under

OVER 10 (-110) is the lean in this AL matchup with the underlying numbers for Bielak and Manoah. The Astros and the Blue Jays are both swinging hot bats, and the pitchers in this game are both producing hard-hit rates of 42% or higher.

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Houston Astros at Toronto Blue Jays odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s Houston Astros at Toronto Blue Jays odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Houston Astros (10-9) begin a 3-game series with the Toronto Blue Jays (13-7) at Rogers Centre Friday. First pitch is scheduled for 7:07 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Astros vs. Blue Jays odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Houston won three straight at the Texas Rangers after dropping the series opener earlier this week but the Astros lost four consecutive games April 19-23, two versus Toronto.

The Blue Jays are 7-3 overall in their last 10 games and have won four straight series over the Boston Red Sox (twice), Astros and Oakland Athletics.

Season series: Toronto leads 2-1 and has outscored Houston 14-13.

Astros at Blue Jays projected starters

RHP Jose Urquidy vs. LHP Yusei Kikuchi

Urquidy (1-1, 5.52 ERA) took a no-decision in Houston’s 3-2 home loss to the Blue Jays Saturday after going 5 2/3 IP with 2 ER on 6 H and 1 BB with 3 K.

  • 2021 vs. the Blue Jays: 1-1 with a 6.35 ERA (11 1/3 IP, 8 ER), 13 H, 4 HR, 1 BB and 7 K across 2 starts.
  • vs. the Blue Jays on the current roster: 6.34 FIP with a .277 expected batting average (xBA), .357 expected wOBA (xwOBA), .510 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 16.7 K% and 91.3 mph exit velocity (EV) in 48 plate appearances (PA).

Kikuchi (0-1, 3.75 ERA) got a no-decision in Toronto’s 8-7 loss at the Astros Sunday, throwing 3 2/3 IP and surrendering 2 ER (4 R) on 3 H and 5 BB with 4 K.

  • 2021 vs. the Astros: 1-3 with a 5.64 ERA (30 1/3 IP, 19 ER), 5 HR, 1.45 WHIP and 6.8 K/9 over 6 starts.
  • vs. the Astros on the current roster: 6.11 FIP with a .270 xBA, .385 xwOBA, .519 xSLG, 15.4 K% and 91.6 mph EV in 169 PA.

Astros at Blue Jays odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:35 a.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Astros +100 (bet $100 to win $100) | Blue Jays -120 (bet $120 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Astros +1.5 (-205) | Blue Jays -1.5 (+165)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -105 | U: -120)

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Astros at Blue Jays picks and predictions

Prediction

Astros 5, Blue Jays 4

Money line

LEAN ASTROS (+100) only because I prefer their First 5-Inning RL, which I’ll discuss below and Houston’s bullpen has poor pitching peripherals whereas Toronto’s bullpen grades out as one of the American League’s best.

However, there’s a line freeze in the betting market that makes the Astros seem like a sharp bet. Most of the cash and bets are on Toronto but the line hasn’t moved off the opener according to pregame.com, which is suspicious.

The Astros are also 6-2 overall versus left-handed starters, one of those victories was last week against Kikuchi who’s a pitcher Houston is familiar with because Kikuchi pitched for the Seattle Mariners from 2019-21.

LEAN ASTROS (+100) for the full game since I prefer Houston’s First 5-Inning lines more.

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Run line/Against the spread

BET the ASTROS +0.5 FIRST 5-INNING RUN LINE (-140) because they rake Kikuchi but the Blue Jays have a much better bullpen and I’m worried Toronto could sneak in the backdoor versus Houston’s weak bullpen.

Houston’s hitting numbers against lefties would be far more impressive if it weren’t for bad luck. The Astros are 29th in BABIP versus left-handed pitching (.208) but that should turn around since they are fourth in BB/K rate (0.51) and third in hard-hit rate (33.8%), per FanGraphs.

You could make a case for Houston’s -0.5 alternate First 5-Inning RL (+130) but since Urquidy has been shaky to start 2022, I’ll stick with the ASTROS +0.5 FIRST 5-INNING RUN LINE (-140) to be safe.

Over/Under

PASS because the Over 8.5 (-105) feels too easy with two below-average starters on the mound versus two powerful lineups and the House is trying to entice more Over action by making that side cheaper. The Under has also cashed in four of the past five Astros-Blue Jays meetings.

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