Houston Astros vs. Minnesota Twins odds predictions pick betting line spread

ALDS Game 4: Houston Astros at Minnesota Twins odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Wednesday’s Houston Astros at Minnesota Twins Game 4 odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Houston Astros look to finish off the Minnesota Twins Wednesday in Game 4 of their AL Division Series. First pitch from Target Field is set for 7:07 p.m. ET (FS1). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Astros vs. Twins odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

ALDS Series: Astros lead 2-1 following 9-1 Game 3 victory Tuesday

Houston LF Yordan Álvarez is feasting off the Twins this series, hitting 4 home runs and batting .500 (6-for-12). Astros RHP Cristian Javier allowed just 1 hit over 5 innings with 9 K’s in the Game 3 win.

Minnesota only managed 1 run Tuesday — off an RBI single by CF Willi Castro — despite closing as a -131 favorite. The Over (8) cashed as Twins RHP Sonny Gray only lasted 4 innings, giving up 8 hits and 4 earned runs.

Astros at Twins projected starters

RHP José Urquidy vs. RHP Joe Ryan

Urquidy made 10 starts in 16 appearances during the regular season, finishing 3-3 with a 5.29 ERA. He had a 1.43 WHIP, 3.6 BB/9 and 6.4 K/9 in 63 innings.

Last start: Win, 6 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 3 BB, 2 K in 2-1 road win vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Sept. 29
2023 road stats: 2-1, 4.28 ERA (27 1/3 IP, 13 ER), 1 save in 5 starts and 1 relief appearance
Career vs. Twins: 0-0, 2.93 ERA (15 1/3 IP, 5 ER) in 3 starts, including a no-decision (5 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 7 H, 0 BB, 6 K) in a start this season

Ryan was 11-10 with a 4.51 ERA over 29 regular-season starts. He has a 1.17 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 11.0 K/9 in 161 2/3 innings.

Last start: No decision, 5 IP, 6 ER, 8 H, 1 BB, 6 K in 7-6 road win at Colorado Rockies Sept. 29
2023 home stats: 7-4, 3.83 ERA (82 1/3 IP, 35 ER) in 14 starts
Career vs. Astros: 1-2, 8.36 ERA (14 IP, 13 ER) in 3 starts

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Astros at Twins odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:20 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Astros +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Twins -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Astros +1.5 (-190) | Twins -1.5 (+155)
Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

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Astros at Twins picks and predictions

Prediction

Astros 4, Twins 2

Moneyline

The Twins are on the ropes and this Houston team is looking eerily similar to last year. The Astros are 52-30 on the road and 23-12 as road underdogs.

BET ASTROS (+105).

Run line/Against the spread

Since I am picking Houston to take Game 4 there is no value in taking the Astros +1.5 (-190). I’d rather PASS here and take them on the moneyline for plus money.

Over/Under

Every game this series has gone Over but playoff baseball in general sees lower-scoring games. This year the Over is just 14-18-4, and, if you take away this series the record is a paltry 8-18-4. I expect these teams to regress to match the other playoff teams, especially since the Twins can’t afford to pitch to Alvarez any longer.

LEAN UNDER 7.5 (-105).

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ALDS Game 3: Houston Astros at Minnesota Twins odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Tuesday’s Houston Astros at Minnesota Twins Game 3 odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Houston Astros and Minnesota Twins play Game 3 of an AL Division Series Tuesday. First pitch from Target Field is set for 4:07 p.m. ET (FOX). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Astros vs. Twins odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

ALDS Series: tied 1-1

The Astros lost 6-2 as -128 home favorites as the Over (7.5) hit in the 2nd game of the series Sunday. LF Yordan Álvarez hit a 2-run shot in the 8th inning — his 3rd HR of the series.

Twins SS Carlos Correa finished with 3 hits and 3 RBIs vs. his former team. Minnesota 3B Kyle Farmer hit a 2-run HR in the 2nd inning, and the Twins won their 1st playoff road game since the 2004 ALDS.

Astros at Twins projected starters

RHP Cristian Javier vs. RHP Sonny Gray

Javier made 31 starts in the regular season, going 10-5 with a 4.56 ERA. He had a 1.27 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9 and 8.8 K/9 in 162 innings.

Last start: Win, 6 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 2 BB, 4 K in 8-1 victory at Arizona Diamondbacks on Oct. 1
2023 road stats: 5-3, 5.17 ERA (94 IP, 54 ER) in 18 starts
Postseason career vs. Twins: Win, 3 IP, 0 ER, 0 H, 2 BB, 2 K in relief during 3-1 road victory Sept. 30, 2020

Gray was 8-8 with a 2.79 ERA across 32 regular season starts. He had a 1.15 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 9.0 K/9 in 184 innings.

Last start: Win, 5 IP, 0 ER, 5 H, 2 BB, 6 K in 2-0 home victory vs. Toronto Blue Jays on Wednesday
2023 home stats (regular season): 4-5, 2.67 ERA (97 2/3 IP, 29 ER) in 17 starts
Postseason career vs. Astros: No-decision, 5 IP, 2 R (1 ER), 1 H, 2 BB, 4 K in 1 start, a 6-4 home victory with New York Yankees on Oct. 17, 2017

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Astros at Twins odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:20 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Astros +115 (bet $100 to win $115) | Twins -135 (bet $135 to win $100)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Astros +1.5 (-185) | Twins -1.5 (+150)
Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Astros at Twins picks and predictions

Prediction

Twins 4, Astros 3

Moneyline

The TWINS (-135) have the clear advantage at starting pitcher with Gray facing Javier and should be feeling confident after bouncing back in Game 2. Correa looks like he is still capable of starring in October and is extra motivated to beat his former team.

Javier has struggled on the road this season and has given up 3 or more ER in 4 of his last 5 away starts.

BET TWINS (-135).

Run line/Against the spread

The Astros are 26-8 (76.5%) on the run line this season as road underdogs, according to TeamRankings.com. Houston +1.5 (-185) will probably hit, but there’s no need to pay the higher price on the run line when Minnesota ML is the better play.

PASS. Bet the moneyline and/or the total instead.

Over/Under

The Under has hit in Minnesota’s last 3 home games. Gray was dominant last time out and has allowed 1 or fewer ER in 7 of his last 8 starts. While Javier has been a liability on the road this season, Gray should be able to keep this game low-scoring and help the Under hit.

BET UNDER 8 (-110).

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Houston Astros at Minnesota Twins odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s Houston Astros at Minnesota Twins odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Houston Astros (3-4) and Minnesota Twins (4-2) open a 3-game set Friday at Target Field. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Astros vs. Twins odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: First meeting of 2023. Astros won last season’s series 6-0.

The Astros won as -244 home favorites 8-2 vs. the Detroit Tigers Wednesday. OF Chas McCormick, OF Kyle Tucker and SS Jeremy Peña all homered as Houston avoided being swept in the 3-game series.

The Twins lost as -116 favorites 5-2 at the Miami Marlins Wednesday. OF Trevor Larnach made it 1-1 in the 7th inning with an RBI single, but Miami would eventually go on to score 4 runs in the 8th and win the series 2-1.

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Astros at Twins projected starters

RHP José Urquidy vs. RHP Sonny Gray

Urquidy (0-0, 6.75 ERA) makes his 2nd start. He allowed 3 ER on 7 H and 1 BB with 5 K in 4 IP in his debut vs. the Chicago White Sox Saturday.

Went 13-8 with a 3.94 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 7.3 K/9 in 164 1/3 IP in 2022.
Career vs. Minnesota: 0-0 with a 3.60 ERA (10 IP, 4 ER) in 2 starts.

Gray (1-0, 0.00 ERA) makes his 2nd start. He tossed 5 scoreless IP in his debut with 3 H, 4 BB and 1 K at the Kansas City Royals Saturday.

Posted an 8-5 record with a 3.08 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 8.8 K/9 in 119 2/3 IP in 2022.
Career vs. Houston: 4-4 with a 3.08 ERA (64 1/3 IP, 22 ER) in 10 starts.

Astros at Twins odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:24 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Astros +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | Twins -130 (bet $130 to win $100)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Astros +1.5 (-190) | Twins -1.5 (+155)
Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

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Astros at Twins picks and predictions

Prediction

Twins 3, Astros 2

Moneyline

BET TWINS (-130).

Minnesota should bounce back after losing 2 straight games at Miami and be able to take advantage of this Astros team that has been underperforming on the season.

The Twins are 4-0 in their last 4 games after an off day and 5-1 in their last 6 vs. right-handed starters. Houston swept the Twins last season but will struggle to beat them for a 7th straight time.

Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

Houston +1.5 (-190) should hit, but there is no need to pay the higher price on the run line when the Minnesota moneyline is the better play. Bet Minnesota moneyline and/or the total instead.

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Over/Under

BET UNDER 7.5 (-110).

The Under is 4-0 in Houston’s last 4 road games vs. right-handed starters and 7-1 in its last 8 after an off day.

The Under has hit in 5 of Minnesota’s last 6 home games vs. right-handed pitching and should cash again Friday with Urquidy and Gray on the mound.

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Houston Astros at Minnesota Twins odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Wednesday’s Houston Astros at Minnesota Twins odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Houston Astros (19-11) seek their 9th win in a row when they take on the Minnesota Twins (18-12) Wednesday. First pitch is set for 7:40 p.m. ET at Target Field. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Astros vs. Twins odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Astros lead 1-0

Houston won Tuesday’s game 5-0 and has allowed a total of just 8 runs during its 8-game win streak.

The Twins have also been hot with a 14-4 record over their last 18 games after a slow start.

Astros at Twins projected starters

RHP Jose Urquidy vs. RHP Chris Archer

Jose Urquidy (2-1, 4.56 ERA) makes his 6th start. He has a 1.36 WHIP, 1.4 BB/9 and 5.6 K/9 through 25 2/3 IP.

Is showing pinpoint control but not missing a lot of bats, with 3 strikeouts or fewer in 4 of his 5 outings.
Has surrendered 11 earned runs and 3 home runs across 14 IP while striking out 10 in 3 road starts.

Archer (0-0, 3.26 ERA) makes his 6th start of the season. He has a 1.29 WHIP, 4.2 BB/9 and 9.3 K/9 through 19 1/3 IP.

He has held the opposition to 2 earned runs or fewer in each start but has yet to make it through the 5th inning.
He recorded season-highs in both strikeouts (6) and swinging strikes (13) last time out against Baltimore.

Astros at Twins odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:27 a.m. ET.

Money line (ML): Astros -130 (bet $130 to win $100) | Twins +105 (bet $100 to win $105)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Astros -1.5 (+125) | Twins +1.5 (-155)
Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -105 | U: -120)

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Astros at Twins picks and predictions

Prediction

Astros 5, Twins 4

Money line

The Astros have been red hot and they are 10-7 in road games on the season. Archer has already served up 5 home runs in 19 1/3 IP, and the Houston bats should be able to do some damage against him. Side with the ASTROS (-130).

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Run line/Against the spread

The Astros have had their fair share of tight games, as 12 of their 30 games, including 7 of their wins, have been decided by just a single run. This sets up as another close one and there’s not enough value in the run line even though the Astros should come out on top. PASS.

Over/Under

The Under is 4-0-1 in Minnesota’s last five contests and 13-2 in Houston’s last 15 games. However, both of these starting pitchers have displayed marginal skills this season.

Urquidy isn’t missing bats, Archer is walking a lot of batters, and both are allowing a lot of loud contact. Despite the recent trends, look for this total to go OVER 8.5 (-105).

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Houston Astros at Minnesota Twins odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Saturday’s Houston Astros at Minnesota Twins odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Houston Astros (36-27) face the Minnesota Twins (25-38) for the second game of a three-game series Saturday. First pitch is scheduled for 7:15 p.m. ET at Target Field. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Astros vs. Twins odds with MLB picks and predictions.

RHP Luis Garcia is the projected starting pitcher for the Astros. He is 5-3 with a 2.75 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 10.4 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9 in 59 IP over 10 starts and a pair of relief appearances. Garcia has picked up a victory in each of his last five starts. During that streak, he has allowed only six total earned runs for an ERA of 1.86.

RHP Jose Berrios is the projected starting pitcher for the Twins. He is 6-2 with a 3.58 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 9.3 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9 in 70 1/3 IP over 12 starts. He has won his last four decisions, and his team has won in each of his last five starts.

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Astros at Twins odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 7:20 a.m. ET.

Money line: Astros -115 (bet $115 to win $100) | Twins -105 (bet $105 to win $100)
Against the spread/ATS: Astros -1.5 (+135) | Twins +1.5 (-160).
Over/Under: 9 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Prediction

Astros 4, Twins 2

Money line (ML)

The Astros picked up a 6-4 series-opening win on Friday. They have won four of their last five games and are 5-2 on their road trip.

Only the Baltimore Orioles have fewer home wins in the AL than the Twins’ 13 this season. They have lost five of their last seven games at Target Field.

Garcia and Berrios are a fantastic pitching matchup, and both teams are on winning streaks with them on the mound. However, Garcia has been pitching better than Berrios.

For that reason, I LEAN ASTROS (-115).

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

The Astros are 31-31 ATS this season and 15-14 ATS on the road, but in Garcia’s last four starts they have won by at least three runs.

The Twins have the league’s worst ATS record at 20-42 ATS. They have covered the spread only three times in their last 16 games.

Again, I LEAN ASTROS -1.5 (+135).

Over/Under (O/U)

The Twins have the highest Over percentage in the league at 67.8%. The Astros are close at 61.7% – the third-highest clip in the majors.

However, the total has gone over 9 runs in only one of Berrios’ last five starts, and Houston has only had four of its last 11 games go Over the projected total.

Take UNDER 9 (-110).

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