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The Chicago Cubs (15-9) meet the Houston Astros (7-18) at Wrigley Field Thursday with 1st pitch in the final game of the 3-game series set for 2:20 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Astros vs. Cubs odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Cubs lead 2-0
The Cubs beat the Astros 7-2 on Tuesday and 4-3 on Wednesday. They have won 5 of their last 7 games and are 9-3 at home. Chicago has been among the best teams for bettors too, posting a 17-7 against-the-spread (ATS) record.
The Astros have lost 4 straight games, dropping 2 against the Cubs and the final 2 games of a 3-game series against the Washington Nationals. Houston is 3-11 over the last 15 days and is struggling, sitting 5th in the American League West. It is 8-17 ATS on the season.
Astros at Cubs projected starters
RHP Justin Verlander vs. RHP Javier Assad
Verlander (1-0, 3.00 ERA) makes his 2nd start. He has a 0.67 WHIP, 0.0 BB/9 and 6.0 K/9 in 6 IP.
- Last start: Win, 6 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 0 BB, 4 K in 5-3 win vs. the Washington Nationals Friday
- 2023 road splits: 7-3, 3.20 ERA (76 IP, 27 ER — 6 HR), 74 H, 26 BB, 62 K, .345 opponent SLG in 13 starts
- Is 2-0 with a 1.98 ERA in 2 career starts vs. Cubs with 12 K in 13 2/3 IP
Assad (2-0, 2.11 ERA) makes his 5th start. He has a 1.03 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9 and 8.9 K/9 in 21 1/3 IP.
- Last start: No-decision, 4 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 3 BB, 3 K in 3-2 loss vs. the Miami Marlins Saturday
- 2024 home splits: 1-0, 0.84 ERA (10 2/3 IP, 1 ER — 0 HR), 7 H, 4 BB, 8 K, .250 opponent SLG in 2 starts
- Cubs are 2-2 in his starts
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Astros at Cubs odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Wednesday at 11:31 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Astros -132 (bet $132 to win $100) | Cubs +112 (bet $100 to win $112)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Astros -1.5 (+126) | Cubs +1.5 (-152)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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Astros at Cubs picks and predictions
Prediction
Astros 4, Cubs 2
Moneyline
BET ASTROS (-132).
The Cubs have one of the best home records in the MLB, but they have just 1 sweep this season which came against the Colorado Rockies, who sit last in the National League West.
The Astros were 15-12 in games Verlander started last season and 1-0 this season. They have tallied at least 4 runs in 3 of their last 6 games. The Houston offense should come alive while the Cubs’ season-long trends suggest they’ll struggle to close the series out.
Take ASTROS (-132).
Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
There’s not much value here either way. The Astros -1.5 (+126) are too risky as a run-line favorite here while the Cubs +1.5 (-152) are too expensive as a run-line underdog, especially considering how well Assad has pitched at home.
Ultimately, avoid this play.
Over/Under
LEAN UNDER 8 (-115).
The Cubs are 11-13 O/U on the season and have gone Under in 4 of their last 5 games. Chicago has allowed 3 or fewer runs in 4 of its last 6 games. It has gone Under the projected total in Assad’s last 2 starts as well.
The Astros have gone Under in 4 straight games and are 0-7-1 O/U in their last 8, pushing in a 5-3 win against the Nationals in Verlander’s lone start. Houston is 8-15-2 O/U on the season.
Considering the season-long trends for both sides and the strength of the pitching that’ll start on the mound, back UNDER 8 (-115).
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