Hornets Heat odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

Charlotte Hornets at Miami Heat odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Thursday’s Charlotte Hornets at Miami Heat odds and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Charlotte Hornets (3-9) and Miami Heat (4-7) meet Thursday at FTX Arena. Tip-off is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook’s lines around the Hornets vs. Heat odds, and make our expert NBA picks and predictions.

The Hornets failed to cover the spread as 1.5-point home underdogs in a 105-95 loss vs. the Portland Trail Blazers Wednesday. G Terry Rozier led Charlotte with 18 points in its 6th consecutive loss.

The Hornets have the 2nd-longest odds to win the Southeast Division at +5000.

The Heat lost straight up as 5-point home favorites 110-107 vs. the Trail Blazers Monday. F Jimmy Butler, C Bam Adebayo and F Max Strus each finished with 16 points.

Miami has the 2nd-best odds to win the Southeast Division at +125 (behind the Atlanta Hawks at -130).

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Hornets at Heat odds

Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 2:15 p.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Hornets +390 (bet $100 to win $390) | Heat -550 (bet $550 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Hornets +10.5 (-110) | Heat -10.5 (-110)
Over/Under (O/U): 214.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Hornets at Heat key injuries

Hornets

G LaMelo Ball (ankle) out
F Gordon Hayward (shoulder) out

Heat

G Tyler Herro (ankle) questionable
F Caleb Martin (quad) questionable
G Victor Oladipo (knee) out

For most recent updates: Official NBA injury report.

Hornets at Heat picks and predictions

Prediction

Heat 108, Hornets 102

Moneyline

PASS.

Heat (-550) ML should hit, but the price is way too expensive for a team that is coming off of a loss vs. the Trail Blazers Monday and a 101-99 loss at the Indiana Pacers Friday. The Heat have looked bad lately and I wouldn’t recommend risking more than 5 times your potential profit on them to win.

Against the spread

BET HORNETS +10.5 (-110).

These aren’t exactly the 2 hottest teams in the league. Charlotte is 0-5-1 ATS in its last 6 games and Miami is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games. However, this should be a low-scoring game and that will help the Hornets cover as double-digit underdogs. The lower the scoring, the more valuable each point on the underdog’s spread becomes. Take the points.

Over/Under

BET UNDER 214.5 (-110).

The Under is 6-1-1 in Charlotte’s last 8 games and 3-1 in Miami’s last 4 games. Neither team has been impressive offensively as of late and that trend should continue Thursday as these 2 low-scoring teams come out extra focused on the defensive end in an attempt to break their losing skids.

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Charlotte Hornets at Miami Heat odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Tuesday’s Charlotte Hornets at Miami Heat and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Charlotte Hornets (40-38) head to the FTX Arena Tuesday for a 7:30 p.m. ET tip-off with the Miami Heat (51-28). Below, we look at the Hornets vs. Heat odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

Charlotte is 4-3 straight up (SU) but just 3-4 against the spread (ATS) in the last two weeks, with the latest being a 144-114 loss to the 76ers Saturday in Philadelphia.

Miami won its fourth consecutive game Sunday (4-0 ATS) by upsetting the Raptors 114-109 in Toronto as 4.5-point road underdogs — without SF Jimmy Butler and PF P.J. Tucker.

The Heat are 3-0 SU and 2-0-1 ATS in their season series with the Hornets and the total is 0-3 Over/Under (O/U).

Hornets at Heat odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:01 p.m. ET.

Money line (ML): Hornets +180 (bet $100 to win $180) | Heat -230 (bet $230 to win $100)
Against the spread: Hornets +5.5 (-110) | Heat -5.5 (-110)
Over/Under: 226.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)

Hornets at Heat key injuries

Hornets

None

Heat

SF Jimmy Butler (toe) questionable
C Dewayne Dedmon (ankle) questionable
PG Kyle Lowry (rest) questionable
PF P.J. Tucker (knee) questionable

[tipico]

Hornets at Heat odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Heat 112, Hornets 105

Money line

PASS even though the Heat should win comfortably because Miami (-230) is out of my price range.

That said, Charlotte is 24th in defensive rating and Miami shreds bad defenses. The Heat are 23-7 SU versus teams in the bottom-10 of defensive efficiency with a plus-9.1 adjusted net rating (ranked sixth), according to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG).

On the other hand, Miami is fourth in defensive rating and Charlotte struggles against good defenses. The Hornets are 8-20 SU versus teams in the top-10 of defensive efficiency with a minus-5.9 adjusted net rating (ranked 19th), per CTG.

Furthermore, the Heat destroyed the Hornets in their first 3 meetings. Charlotte is shooting just 38.9% from the field (29.0% from 3) and being outscored 109.7-97.3 by Miami this season.

The only pro-Hornets argument here is “Miami won’t sweep the season series.” But, the Heat should roll the Hornets and I’ll lay the points instead.

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Against the spread

BET the HEAT -5.5 (-110) for 1 unit because they are very profitable in this spot whereas Hornets +5.5 (-110) are not.

Miami has a plus-3.6 ATS margin (ranked eighth) versus bottom-10 defenses, per CTG, and 10-5 ATS as 5-to-7-point favorites.

Charlotte has a minus-3.4 ATS margin (ranked 26th) versus top-10 defenses and 5-8-1 ATS as 5-to-7-point underdogs.

GIMME the HEAT -5.5 (-110) to roll the Hornets again.

Over/Under

LEAN UNDER 226.5 (-112) even though my prediction is well below the total because Miami is shooting 41.4% from 3 in the last 7 games, Charlotte is seventh in 3-point shooting percentage and the Hornets-Heat series is due for an Over.

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Charlotte Hornets at Miami Heat odds, picks and prediction

Previewing Monday’s Charlotte Hornets at Miami Heat NBA odds and lines, with basketball picks, tips and predictions.

The Charlotte Hornets (9-11) visit the Miami Heat (7-12) Monday for a 7:30 p.m. ET tip-off at American Airlines Arena. Below, we analyze the Hornets-Heat NBA odds and lines, with picks and predictions.

Charlotte won and covered the spread in back-to-back games against the Indiana Pacers and Milwaukee Bucks entering Monday. The Hornets’ two-game win streak was preceded by two straight losses and Charlotte is 3-3 straight up and 3-3 against the spread in its last six contests.

The Heat snapped a five-game losing skid with a 105-104 win over the Sacramento Kings Saturday. It was the healthiest game for Miami in a long time as the Heat have been dealing with a myriad of injury and COVID-19-related absences.

These teams split the 2019-20 regular-season series but the Hornets won the final meeting of the season 109-98 as 10.5-point underdogs.

Hornets at Heat: Odds, spread and lines

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:55 a.m. ET.

Money line: Hornets +200 (bet $100 to win $200 | Heat -250 (bet $250 to win $100)
Against the spread/ATS: Hornets +6.5 (-110) | Heat -6.5 (-110)
Over/Under: 217.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Hornets at Heat: Key injuries

Hornets

PG Terry Rozier (ankle) questionable

Heat

SF Andre Iguodala (neck) probable
SG Avery Bradley (knee) questionable
PG Goran Dragic (groin) questionable
SG Tyler Herro (health and safety protocols) questionable
C Meyers Leonard (shoulder) questionable
C Maurice Harkless (thigh) out

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Hornets at Heat: Odds, lines, predictions and picks

Prediction

Hornets 112, Heat 106

Money line (ML)

This line and the market action (more on that in a second) is confusing. The Hornets’ last two wins were very impressive and this team has the potential to contend for the playoffs if they can stop turning the ball over and do a better job of cleaning up the glass.

These are also areas of weakness for the Heat. Miami is second-to-last in turnover percentage and last in offensive rebounding percentage. While everyone expects the Heat to get right eventually, they struggled in these areas last season, too.

Given how good Charlotte has looked in the last two games and Miami needing time to find its groove, I lean HORNETS (+200) for a one-fifth-unit.

Against the spread (ATS)

First, the market is all over the Heat here, steaming this line up from Miami favored by 4 points on the opener to the current price. According to Pregame.com, more than 70% of the money is on the Heat. It’s tough to not fade that one-sided action.

Also, Hornets SF Gordon Hayward has played well in his last two games (one for Charlotte and one for the Boston Celtics) vs. Heat SF Jimmy Butler, scoring 27.5 points per game on better than 70% shooting. Butler outplayed Hayward in last season’s playoffs but as we’re finding out this season, Boston was never a fit for Hayward.

Since I lean toward Charlotte stealing one here, I like HORNETS +6.5 (-110) for 1 unit.

Over/Under (O/U)

PASS with a lean on Over 217.5 (-110) because it’s more of a hunch than anything. Miami allows opponents to shoot the second-most threes per game and Charlotte’s opponents shoot the third-most so I’m expecting a 3-point chuck-off. If you know that going in, how eager are you to bet an Under?

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Also see:

Hornets’ LaMelo Ball pours in career-high in win over Giannis, Bucks (Rookie Wire)
Hoops Hype rumors: Hornets | Heat

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