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Straight Talk Wireless 400: What you need to know

23XI Racing driver Tyler Reddick captured the pole for Sunday’s race with a best speed of 167.452 mph in qualifying. He is sixth in the NASCAR Cup Series playoff standings

Reddick has 4 career Cup starts at HMS, posting 3 top-5 finishes and 1 DNF with an 11.0 Average-Finish Position (AFP) and 4 laps led

Joe Gibbs Racing driver Christopher Bell leads all drivers with a 10.0 AFP in 4 Cup starts at Homestead-Miami Speedway, with 1 win, 2 top-10 finishes and 30 laps led

JGR’s Denny Hamlin has picked up 3 checkered flags at HMS to lead all active drivers, while finishing inside the top 10 in 12 of his 19 Cup starts (63.2%) at the South Florida track. Hamlin will start 4th Sunday

Hendrick Motorsports driver Kyle Larson qualified second for Sunday’s race with a speed of 167.053 mph. He is also second in the playoff standings

JGR’s Martin Truex Jr. makes his final Homestead-Miami Cup start. He has a win among his 7 top-5 finishes and 12 top-10 runs in 19 career starts with a 10.9 AFP and 387 laps led

Hendrick’s Chase Elliott, eighth in the playoff standings, is second among all drivers with a 10.4 AFP in 8 career Cup starts at the South Florida track. He will start in the lucky seventh spot Sunday

Florida native Ross Chastain has had a tough time at Homestead in his career, posting a 23.6 AFP in 5 career Cup starts with 1 DNF

Ricky Stenhouse Jr., who qualified fifth for Sunday’s start, has a 21.7 AFP in 12 career Cup starts with 2 DNFs

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Straight Talk Wireless 400 – Expert pick

DENNY HAMLIN (+800) is always a threat to take checkers at Homestead-Miami Speedway. The JGR program in general has had tremendous success at the track, winning 3 of the past 5 races.

The driver of the No. 11 machine has posted 3 career wins among his 5 top-5 finishes and 12 top-10 showings with 428 laps led in 19 career Cup starts. He has an impressive 10.9 AFP with an Average Driver Rating of 98.1.

If you’re conservative, playing HAMLIN TOP-5 FINISH (+110) still has value as a plus-money wager.

Straight Talk Wireless 400 – Contender

CHASE ELLIOTT (+1600) is worth a look as he figures to drive with some urgency. He is eighth in the playoff standings heading into this second race of the Round of 8.

Elliott has had tremendous success in his career at Homestead-Miami Speedway. While he has never won, he has been a runner-up before, while finishing inside the top 5 in 2 of his 8 career starts at the track.

If you’re not feeling an outright-winner wager, betting ELLIOTT TOP-5 FINISH (+210) is a solid play for the opportunity to potentially more than double up.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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The NASCAR Cup Series heads to the Homestead-Miami Speedway for the 2023 4EVER 400 presented by Mobil 1 Sunday afternoon. The green flag is set to drop shortly after 2:30 p.m. ET (NBC). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the 2023 4EVER 400 presented by Mobil 1 odds, and make our expert NASCAR picks and predictions.

2023 4EVER 400 presented by Mobil 1: What you need to know

Joe Gibbs Racing driver Martin Truex Jr., currently 14 points behind standings leader Kyle Larson of Hendrick Motorsports, is on the pole for Sunday’s race
MTJ has managed a win, 7 top-5 finishes and 12 top-10 runs in 18 career Cup starts at HMS, posting a 9.7 Average-Finish Position (AFP)
Larson, who starts 5th Sunday, has a win, 5 top-5 runs and 529 laps led in 9 Cup starts in Homestead while posting a 10.7 AFP
JGR’s Denny Hamlin leads all active drivers with 3 career wins at Homestead-Miami, posting 12 top-10 finishes in 18 starts while posting a 9.8 AFP — 1 of just 4 active drivers with a sub-10.0 AFP
RFK Racing’s Chris Buescher, still alive for championship with 3 races to go, has struggled in his career at HMS. He has never finished better than 13th in 7 Cup starts with a dismal 19.7 AFP
Team Penske’s Ryan Blaney, just ahead of Buescher in the standings, has just a single top-10 finish in 8 Cup starts at HMS, while turning in an 18.6 AFP
Richard Childress Racing driver Kyle Busch, out of the championship hope, looks to play spoiler. He has 2 wins, 5 top-5 finishes and 11 top-10 runs with 465 laps led in 18 Cup starts at Homestead
23XI Racing’s Bubba Wallace posted a qualifying speed of 167.115 mph — 0.313 seconds behind Truex Jr. — to start on the outside of Row 1
Toyota leads the field with 3 drivers in the top 3 spots, followed by the Ford of RFK’s Brad Keselowski, then 4 Chevrolets
Chevrolet has won the past 2 Homestead-Miami Speedway races, with Toyota winning the previous 2 races. The last time Ford went to Victory Lane was Nov. 18, 2018, when Joey Logano capped off a championship season

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2023 4EVER 400 – Expert pick

Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:01 a.m. ET.

DENNY HAMLIN (+900) has a golden opportunity to inch closer to a championship shot by winning at one of his best tracks. Hamlin leads all active drivers with 3 career checkered flags at Homestead-Miami Speedway. He sits 4th in the standings, with a precarious 2-point lead over Christopher Bell.

The biggest threat to Hamlin is Larson (+250), who is the overwhelming chalk. However, Hamlin is a better value, even more so than his teammate Truex Jr. (+500), who is on the pole.

Play our free daily Pick’em Challenge and win! Play now!

2023 4EVER 400 – Long shot

JOEY LOGANO (+4000) is no longer alive for a championship, but I couldn’t believe my eyes when I saw this number. Logano has won before at Homestead-Miami Speedway, locking down a championship in the 2018 installment of the race. He has a solid 15.0 AFP with 197 laps led, just 1 DNF and 4 finishes inside the top-5 in 14 career Cup starts.

2023 4EVER 400 – Best props bets

JOEY LOGANO TOP-10 FINISH (+230) for a chance to double up your initial wager seems like stealing candy from a baby. Sure, things haven’t gone according to plan for Logano, who has admittedly had a down season, but he has always been decent at this track, and he has been inside the top 5 in 3 of his past 8 races.

Another sure-fire play, although you’ll have to eat a little chalk, is DENNY HAMLIN TOP-10 FINISH (-170). That seems too good to be true. The fact you can get this under -200 is a steal.

I know Buescher doesn’t have the greatest averages at HMS, but CHRIS BUESCHER TOP-10 FINISH (+135) at plus-money is worth playing lightly. He is still in the championship hunt and will be throwing everything and the kitchen sink at the rest of the field trying to stay alive for a trophy.

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