In a middleweight bout in the co-main event on Saturday’s card, Jack Hermansson and Marvin Vettori meet at UFC Vegas 16 at the UFC’s APEX facility in Las Vegas. The prelims kick off at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN2/ESPN+, followed by the main card on ESPN2/ESPN+ at 10 p.m. ET. Other names for the event are UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Vettori and UFC on ESPN 19.
Hermansson (21-5) is coming off a Round 1 knockout of Kelvin Gastelum last time out on July 18, winning in 78 seconds on the Figueiredo-Benavidez card at Fight Island in Abu Dhabi, U.A.E. Hermansson has won five of his past six bouts, including three submission victories. Since arriving at the UFC level, nine of his 11 fights have finished inside the distance with five KO/TKO endings (3-2) and four stoppages via submission (3-1). He enters the octagon with a one-inch height advantage, while holding a three-inch reach advantage over his counterpart. He also holds a 5.08 to 4.33 significant strikes landed per minute advantage, and leads 48.54 to 43.81 in significant strikes-accuracy percentage. He is also ahead 2.19 to 1.67 in takedown advantage.
Vettori (15-4-1) – a.k.a. “The Italian Dream” – enters on a three-bout win streak. The southpaw posted a first-round submission win over Karl Roberson last time out on June 13. It was a rare stoppage, as Vettori’s previous six fights went the distance (3-2-1). The Brazilian jiu-jitsu specialist might normally try and get Hermansson to the canvas, but the Scandinavian fighter is just as effective on the mat as Vettori. If Vettori does go that route, his specialties are the guillotine and the rear-naked choke.
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Jack Hermansson vs. Marvin Vettori: Betting odds, predictions and picks
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 4:58 a.m. ET.
VETTORI (-145) has been the hotter fighter lately, and he is the play in this co-main event. You can expect that it’s going to be a rather lengthy bout, too, as the Italian doesn’t go for the early finish very often.
As such, go for OVER 3.5 ROUNDS (+105), which is a value play at plus-money. Rolling the dice on YES (+165): WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE? is also a tremendous value at this price. In addition, if you want a better play than Vettori on the 2-way line, look to VETTORI ON POINTS (+340) to more than triple up. Yes, if he wins via knockout or submission, you’re out of luck, but it’s worth the risk.
If you’re not feeling Vettori for the win, but still want some action with a nice value, look to DECISION (+165) for the fight finish. If either fighter has their arm raised after the fight goes to the judges’ cards, you’re a winner.
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Also see:
- UFC on ESPN 19 predictions (MMA Junkie)
- Photos: UFC on ESPN 19 weigh-ins & faceoffs (MMA Junkie)
- More UFC/MMA coverage from MMA Junkie
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