In a middleweight bout on the main card, Ian Heinisch and Brendan Allen meet at UFC on ESPN+ 40 Saturday at the UFC’s APEX facility in Las Vegas. The early prelims kick off at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN+, followed by the main card set for 10 p.m. ET, also on ESPN+.
Heinisch (14-3) heads into this one as a slight underdog, and physically he is also at a slight disadvantage. He enters the octagon three inches shorter and with a three-inch reach disadvantage against his counterpart. He does own a 3.62 to 2.67 advantage in significant strikes landed per minute over his career, and he can hold his own on takedowns, although Allen (15-3) is much more accurate with a 37.50 to 19.23 takedown-accuracy percentage. Heinisch snapped a two-bout losing skid with a first-round knockout of Gerald Meerschaert at UFC 250 last time out on June 6 at this very same venue.
Allen, the Brazilian jiu-jitsu specialist, has posted a 3-0 record since arriving at the UFC level, while posting a seven-bout win streak overall since last tasting defeat at LFA 32 against Anthony Hernandez in a title bout in that division on Jan. 26, 2018. More importantly for this bout, at the UFC level, he has shown a variety of ways he can win. He has a submission win over Kevin Holland, a KO/TKO in the first round against Tom Breese, as well as a UD win over Kyle Daukaus in his most recent showing June 27 on the Poirier-Hooker fight card.
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Ian Heinisch vs. Brendan Allen betting odds
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 9:10 p.m. ET.
ALLEN (-115) is worth a look on the 2-way line in this bout, which is essentially a coin-flip fight. However, Allen’s versatility, or ability to win in a variety of ways, makes him quite a bit more attractive. Plus, he enters with a reach advantage or ability to keep his counterpart, literally, at arm’s length.
If you want a little more value, target Allen by KO/TKO, DQ or SUBMISSION (+290) for a small-unit wager on the 5-way line. Note, if he ends up winning on points, you don’t get to cash a winner. But he has shown he can win on the mat with his wrestling ability, or with a knockout blow.
It’s a bit against the trends, but I am also feeling UNDER 2.5 ROUNDS (+165), as that’s just too tempting to pass up at plus-money. If you’re not feeling a particular winner but want to have a reason to peek this fight, go with KO/TKO/DQ (+300) for the fight finish for a potential triple up.
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Also see:
- UFC on ESPN+ 40 predictions (MMA Junkie)
- Allen refutes notion he’s scared of Heinisch (MMA Junkie)
- MMA Junkie – The latest UFC/MMA coverage
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