The Miami Heat (34-18) continue their Western Conference road swing Monday when they visit the Golden State Warriors (12-41) for a 10:30 p.m. ET tip-off at Chase Center. We analyze the Heat-Warriors sports betting odds and lines, with NBA betting advice and tips around the matchup.
Heat at Warriors: Key Injuries
Heat
- SF Jimmy Butler (shoulder) questionable
- C Meyers Leonard (ankle) out
- SG Tyler Herro (ankle) questionable
Warriors
- PG Stephen Curry (hand) out
- SG Klay Thompson (knee) out
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Heat at Warriors: Odds, lines, picks and betting tips
NBA odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 12:30 p.m. ET.
Prediction
Warriors 116, Heat 112
Moneyline (ML)
The Heat (-208) suffered a 115-109 loss against the Portland Trail Blazers Sunday, which dropped them to 0-3 through the first three games of their six-game road swing. They’re now just 12-15 on the road for the season and 5-5 across their last 10 games overall. The WARRIORS (+170) have lost two straight games, including a 125-120 setback against the Los Angeles Lakers Saturday at Chase Center. They remain last in the NBA and are just 7-18 on home court.
I like the value with the Warriors, even though they’re just 1-12 straight up when playing with the rest advantage over their opponents this season. The absences of Butler and Herro are looming large for Miami, and the Heat are just 6-9 when playing with a rest disadvantage. Back the home dogs with a small wager.
New to sports betting? A $10 bet on the Warriors to win returns a profit of $17.
Line/Against the Spread (ATS)
Place a larger amount on the WARRIORS (+4.5, -106) with four points of insurance in the event of a loss. They lost by only five points against a much-stronger Lakers squad Saturday, and they’re 12-13 ATS on their home floor while the Heat are just 11-15-1 ATS on the road.
Miami has covered the spread in just five of 12 games as a road favorite on the season. Don’t put much stock in the Heat’s 122-105 win over the Warriors in Miami Nov. 29, as Butler and Herro combined for 35 points in the victory.
Over/Under (O/U)
Take the OVER 219.5 (-110) as the Warriors will be able to exploit the Heat’s defensive weaknesses in the absences of Butler and Herro. New Warriors SG Andrew Wiggins, acquired from the Minnesota Timberwolves at the trade deadline for PG D’Angelo Russell, went 8-for-12 from the floor for 24 points in his debut with the team in the narrow loss to the Lakers.
Miami has allowed 128, 105 and 115 points in each of its last three losses, respectively. Expect the Warriors to approach 120 points on their own as this one creeps Over the number in the final minutes.
Esten’s NBA betting record: 192-153
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