The Miami Heat (44-27) meet the Oklahoma City Thunder (43-27) Wednesday in the Lake Buena Vista, Fla., bubble for an 8 p.m. ET tip-off. We analyze the Heat-Thunder NBA betting odds and lines, with picks and best bets.
Heat vs. Thunder: Key injuries
Heat
- PG Kendrick Nunn (throat) out
- F/G KZ Okpala (personal) out
- PF Kelly Olynyk (thumb) probable
Thunder
- C Steven Adams (leg) questionable
- C Nerlens Noel (ankle) questionable
- SG Dennis Schroder (self-isolating) out
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Heat vs. Thunder: Odds, lines, picks and betting tips
NBA odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 7:08 p.m. ET.
Prediction
Thunder 110, Heat 101
Moneyline (ML)
The Thunder (+145) have been up and down this whole bubble schedule, flipping from the winning to the losing side in each game. Oklahoma City lost the last one, 128-101 to the Phoenix Suns, so the trend says it wins this one. The Thunder are 3-3 in the bubble.
The Heat (-176) won their last game against probable first-round opponent Indiana Pacers 114-92. SF Jimmy Butler returned from a three-game absence, scoring 19 points in that win. Miami is also 3-3 in its six restart games.
Miami beat OKC earlier this season 115-108 in large to a 40-26 first quarter where the Heat shot 65% from the field. Adams was out that game and C Bam Adebayo feasted for 21 points, 8 rebounds and 5 assists.
Adams has missed the last three games and opponents are scoring 117.3 points per game, shooting ..477% from the field and .366% from 3 (compared to 108 points per game, .454% FG and .339% from 3).
Be sure to check the injury report before betting, but I am handicapping this game as if Adams, SF Danilo Gallinari and PG Shai Gilgeous-Alexander are playing. We’re just getting too much value for the Thunder. The line opened in most places at Thunder (-160)ish and it’s been bet to Heat (-176).
As of 4 p.m. ET, 91% of the cash bet with sportsbooks for the Heat-Thunder is on Miami, according to pregame.com. I’d rather be on the same side as the House. TAKE THE HUNDER (+145).
Line/Against the Spread (ATS)
I am not going to use spread trends (which there are plenty of pro-Thunder trends to use) and instead focus on the PG Chris Paul’s intensity. Paul is a known basketball curmudgeon who’s got a competitive fury and fierce drive to win.
My theory is that OKC will be motivated to play hard because Paul demands it. I am not saying Miami and its squad isn’t driven but in this spot — where the Heat are essentially guaranteed a 4- or 5-seed and home court means nothing — the Thunder should be a little more buttoned-up.
Most importantly, we are on the OKC moneyline so let’s GRAB THE THUNDER +4 (-110).
New to sports betting? A $110 bet on the Thunder +4 (-110) returns a $100 profit if OKC wins or loses by 3 or fewer points. A 4-point loss is a push.
Over/Under (O/U)
I “lean” Under 222.5 (-110) but will PASS because I don’t handicap those particularly well. The O/U record is 3-9 in the last 12 Heat-Thunder meetings but Miami has an O/U of 9-2 in its last 11 games as a favorite.
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