Miami Heat vs. Oklahoma City Thunder odds, picks and best bets

Previewing Wednesday’s Miami Heat vs. Oklahoma City Thunder betting odds and lines, with NBA betting picks, tips and best bets.

The Miami Heat (44-27) meet the Oklahoma City Thunder (43-27) Wednesday in the Lake Buena Vista, Fla., bubble for an 8 p.m. ET tip-off. We analyze the Heat-Thunder NBA betting odds and lines, with picks and best bets.

Heat vs. Thunder: Key injuries

Heat

  • PG Kendrick Nunn (throat) out
  • F/G KZ Okpala (personal) out
  • PF Kelly Olynyk (thumb) probable

Thunder

  • C Steven Adams (leg) questionable
  • C Nerlens Noel (ankle) questionable
  • SG Dennis Schroder (self-isolating) out 

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Heat vs. Thunder: Odds, lines, picks and betting tips

NBA odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 7:08 p.m. ET.

Prediction

Thunder 110, Heat 101

Moneyline (ML)

The Thunder (+145) have been up and down this whole bubble schedule, flipping from the winning to the losing side in each game. Oklahoma City lost the last one, 128-101 to the Phoenix Suns, so the trend says it wins this one. The Thunder are 3-3 in the bubble.

The Heat (-176) won their last game against probable first-round opponent Indiana Pacers 114-92. SF Jimmy Butler returned from a three-game absence, scoring 19 points in that win. Miami is also 3-3 in its six restart games.

Miami beat OKC earlier this season 115-108 in large to a 40-26 first quarter where the Heat shot 65% from the field. Adams was out that game and C Bam Adebayo feasted for 21 points, 8 rebounds and 5 assists.

Adams has missed the last three games and opponents are scoring 117.3 points per game, shooting ..477% from the field and .366% from 3 (compared to 108 points per game, .454% FG and .339% from 3).

Be sure to check the injury report before betting, but I am handicapping this game as if Adams, SF Danilo Gallinari and PG Shai Gilgeous-Alexander are playing. We’re just getting too much value for the Thunder. The line opened in most places at Thunder (-160)ish and it’s been bet to Heat (-176).

As of 4 p.m. ET, 91% of the cash bet with sportsbooks for the Heat-Thunder is on Miami, according to pregame.com. I’d rather be on the same side as the House. TAKE THE HUNDER (+145)

Line/Against the Spread (ATS)

I am not going to use spread trends (which there are plenty of pro-Thunder trends to use) and instead focus on the PG Chris Paul’s intensity. Paul is a known basketball curmudgeon who’s got a competitive fury and fierce drive to win.

My theory is that OKC will be motivated to play hard because Paul demands it. I am not saying Miami and its squad isn’t driven but in this spot — where the Heat are essentially guaranteed a 4- or 5-seed and home court means nothing — the Thunder should be a little more buttoned-up.

Most importantly, we are on the OKC moneyline so let’s GRAB THE THUNDER +4 (-110).

New to sports betting? A $110 bet on the Thunder +4 (-110) returns a $100 profit if OKC wins or loses by 3 or fewer points. A 4-point loss is a push.

Over/Under (O/U)

I “lean” Under 222.5 (-110) but will PASS because I don’t handicap those particularly well. The O/U record is 3-9 in the last 12 Heat-Thunder meetings but Miami has an O/U of 9-2 in its last 11 games as a favorite.

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