Heat Spurs odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

The Miami Heat (32-20) travel to AT&T Center Thursday to take on the San Antonio Spurs (19-33). Tip-off is scheduled for 8:30 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Heat vs. Spurs odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

The Heat come into this game on a three-game losing skid that follows a three-game win streak. Miami has failed to cover four straight games and is just 4-6 against the spread (ATS) over its last 10 outings.

The Heat hold opponents to the second-fewest number of points from 3-pointers; however, for the Spurs, that won’t matter much as they rank 27th in points generated from 3-pointers.

San Antonio is riding a 2-game losing skid, is 4-6 straight up and 5-5 ATS over its last 10 games. Bettors should wait til closer to tip-off to wager on this game as both teams have potential injury concerns.

Heat at Spurs odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:35 p.m. ET.

Money line: Heat -260 (bet $260 to win $100) | Spurs +205 (bet $100 to win $205)
Against the spread (ATS): Heat -6.5 (-107) | Spurs +6.5 (-115)
Over/Under (O/U): 221.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)

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Heat at Spurs key injuries

Heat

F Jimmy Butler (toe) questionable
G Kyle Lowry (personal) questionable
F P.J. Tucker (knee) questionable
G Caleb Martin (Achilles) out

Spurs

C Jakob Poeltl (concussion) out
G Dejounte Murray (wrist) questionable

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Heat at Spurs odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Heat 113, Spurs 111

Money line

PASS on the money line. The Heat are far too banged up to bet on their -260 tag.

Miami hasn’t shown enough to garner that expensive of a price tag and has a .500 road record, and you can expect it to become even more expensive if Murray is ruled out.

Against the spread

BET on the SPURS +6.5 (-115).

This handicap is assuming the Spurs do get their leading scorer, Murray, to play. Murray is second in the NBA in triple-doubles, so his impact on every aspect of the game is there.

The Heat rank ninth in points off turnovers and have the seventh-best offensive and defensive rating.

The Spurs average the fourth-fewest turnovers per game. The Heat allow the fewest shot attempts per game while the Spurs’ low turnover numbers help influence their league-leading 93.4 attempts per game.

I trust the well-coached Spurs offense to play their style and force the Heat to defend without the ability to force turnovers. Miami may struggle to get extra points and cover the spread without those extra attempts.

The Heat are 6-8 ATS as road favorites. I like the Spurs to cover with that in mind, especially if Murray suits up and either Lowry or Butler don’t play.

Over/Under

“LEAN” to the OVER 221.5 (-108).

The Spurs Over has hit in four of their last six games and they’re 26-24-2 O/U on the season. The Heat are a league-leading 33-19 O/U and have hit the Over in eight straight games. However, just two of those eight games would have surpassed this current total.

The Spurs are fifth in pace, and this should be a high-energy game, so the Over looks like the better play here given the trends.

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The Miami Heat (22-13) travel to AT&T Center Wednesday to take on the San Antonio Spurs (14-19). Tip-off is scheduled for 8:30 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Heat vs. Spurs odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

The Heat are coming off a 7-point victory over the Wizards. Miami SG Tyler Herro put up 32 while SF Duncan Robinson chipped in 26. Heat wing Jimmy Butler, who is out for this game, had 25 points while no other player topped 10 for Miami.

Without Butler and many other key starters, the Heat will be underdogs on the road. They’re 6-2 ATS as road underdogs, the second-best ATS record in the NBA as a road underdog. Miami is 19-16 ATS on the season.

As for the Spurs, they’ll also be down their top player, PG Dejounte Murray. However, they covered as 7-point underdogs against the Jazz without Murray in their last outing.

The Spurs are a deep team and far better than their record indicates, posting the 10th-best net rating in the NBA. They’re 20-13 ATS this season.

Also see: Bet Slippin’ Podcast: NBA December 29 breakdown

Heat at Spurs odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Wednesday at 2:05 p.m. ET.

Money line: Heat +200 (bet $100 to win $200) | Spurs -250 (bet $250 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Heat +6.5 (-120) | Spurs -6.5 (-105)
Over/Under (O/U): 217.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Heat at Spurs key injuries

Heat

C Bam Adebayo (thumb) out
F Jimmy Butler (ankle) out
G Kyle Lowry (health and safety protocols) out
F P.J. Tucker (health and safety protocols) out

Spurs

G Dejounte Murray (health and safety protocols) out

Heat at Spurs odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Spurs 112, Heat 104

Money line

PASS on the Spurs at -250.

The Heat have Herro still active, and he could be the best scorer on the court. If anything, I’d lean to the Heat’s money line, but given their absences, I’d stay away from either money line pick.

Against the spread

“LEAN” to the SPURS -6.5 (-105) as the Heat are down just too many bodies. With Butler out, the Heat will turn to Herro and Robinson, both of which aren’t the most consistent scoring options.

As for the Spurs, they have the league’s second-lowest turnover rate and rank in the top 12 in offensive rebounding which should help against a team down several key bigs.

At 42.8 points per game, the Spurs average the most bench points, so their depth, with Derrick White and others, will be key, and it should push them to be able to cover at home.

Over/Under

BET on the UNDER 217.5 (-110) as the best bet in this game. Both teams have a defense that ranks in the top half of the league in efficiency. Similarly, both teams rank in the top 12 in total rebounding rate.

While the Spurs push the pace, they don’t turn the ball over often. Against a Miami team that ranks 29th in pace, this game should turn into a half-court battle without many transition opportunities.

With that in mind, I expect fewer points.

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If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow @nathanbeighle_ on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

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