The Miami Heat (7-3) meet the Los Angeles Lakers (6-5) in a rematch of the 2020 NBA Finals Wednesday at Staples Center. Tip-off is 10 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Heat vs. Lakers odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions, and bets.
Miami has alternated between winning and losing over the past four games with the latest being a 113-96 blowout loss at the Denver Nuggets Monday.
The Heat have several quality victories including double-digit wins at the Memphis Grizzlies, Dallas Mavericks and against the Milwaukee Bucks. Miami is 7-3 ATS and 5-5 O/U with the third-best net rating (plus-9.0).
L.A. broke out of a two-game losing skid by beating the Charlotte Hornets 126-123 in overtime Monday, barely covering as a 2.5-point home favorite. The Lakers are 3-8 ATS and 6-5 O/U with the 18th-ranked net rating (minus-0.9).
Miami beat L.A. in both regular-season meetings last year but the Lakers were without both LeBron James and Anthony Davis in the second contest.
Heat at Lakers odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 2:09 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Heat -200 (bet $200 to win $100) | Lakers +160 (bet $100 to win $160)
- Against the spread (ATS): Heat -4.5 (-115) | Lakers +4.5 (-107)
- Over/Under (O/U): 215.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Heat at Lakers key injuries
Heat
- C Bam Adebayo (knee) questionable
- SG Tyler Herro (back) questionable
- PF P.J. Tucker (shoulder) out
Lakers
- PF Anthony Davis (thumb) probable
- SF LeBron James (abdomen) out
- PG Kendrick Nunn (knee) out
- SF Talen Horton-Tucker (thumb) out
- SF Trevor Ariza (ankle) out
Heat at Lakers odds, lines, picks and predictions
Prediction
Heat 107, Lakers 100
Money line
PASS on the Heat (-200) because it’s a little out of my price range especially since I only “lean” towards Miami covering the spread.
I couldn’t bet the Heat (-200) anyway until I know exactly who’s in each team’s starting 5. Both squads have cluster injuries and, while L.A. has a lot more injuries, Miami’s depth could be significantly reduced Wednesday.
Against the spread
“LEAN” to the HEAT -4.5 (-115) because there’s been a “sharp line move” towards South Beach and there are a few “strengths vs. weaknesses” edges for Miami.
The Heat have the second-best rebounding rate in the league and score the second-most second-chance points per game. Whereas the Lakers have the 24th-ranked defensive rebounding rate and are 26th in second-chance points allowed per game.
First-year Heat PG Kyle Lowry has seamlessly fit into Miami’s scheme thus far, while first-year Lakers PG Russell Westbrook is struggling to organize L.A.’s offense and is getting crushed by nearly all NBA pundits.
However, it’s only a “lean” to Miami because we are getting to the party late since the Heat opened as 3-point favorites but has been steamed up to the current number.
On top of that, AD has dominated Adebayo in their career head-to-head meetings and the Lakers play good defense against mid-range jumpers, which is a specialty for Jimmy Butler and the Heat.
Over/Under
BET the UNDER 215.5 (-110) for 1 unit because we are seeing “reverse line movement” in the betting market.
Nearly 70% of the cash is on the Over but the Heat-Lakers total has been lowered to the current number according to pregame.com. It’s suspicious whenever we see sportsbooks make the more popular side cheaper.
Also, Miami plays at the third-slowest pace in the NBA and should be able to control the tempo with its rebounding.
The Lakers average the second-most fast-break points per game and get out in transition at the fourth-highest frequency, but the Heat give up the ninth-fewest fast-break points per game and is 11th in points per possession allowed out of transition.
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