Heat Celtics odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line – Page 2

Miami Heat at Boston Celtics Game 4 odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Monday’s Miami Heat at Boston Celtics Game 4 lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The No. 2 seed Boston Celtics host the No. 1 seed Miami Heat Monday for Game 4 of the Eastern Conference Finals at TD Garden. Tip-off is scheduled for 8:30 p.m. ET (ABC) and Miami leads the series 2-1. Below, we look at the Heat vs. Celtics odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

Miami took control of the series by blitzing Boston to open Game 3 Saturday, outscoring the Celtics by 21 points in the 1st quarter and holding on for a 109-103 victory.

The Celtics lost despite outperforming the Heat in three of the “four factors”, outshooting Miami from everywhere on the floor and with Heat SF Jimmy Butler missing the entire 2nd half with a knee injury because they lost the turnover battle 23-8.

Heat big Bam Adebayo feasted on the Celtics frontcourt without second-team All-Defense C Robert Williams III. Adebayo scored a team-high 31 points on 68.2% shooting with 10 rebounds, 6 assists and 4 steals.

Heat at Celtics odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:45 p.m. ET.

Money line (ML): Heat +250 (bet $100 to win $250) | Celtics -320 (bet $320 to win $100)
Against the spread: Heat +6.5 (-105) | Celtics -6.5 (-120)
Over/Under: 206.5 (O: -107 | U: -115)

Heat at Celtics key injuries

Heat

SF Jimmy Butler (knee) questionable
SG Tyler Herro (groin) out
PG Kyle Lowry (hamstring) questionable
SG Max Strus (hamstring) questionable
PF P.J. Tucker (knee) questionable
PG Gabe Vincent (hamstring) questionable

Celtics

PG Marcus Smart (ankle) questionable
SF Jayson Tatum (shoulder) probable
C Robert Williams III (knee) questionable

[tipico]

Heat at Celtics picks and predictions

Prediction

Celtics 103, Heat 99

Money line

PASS because there’s no way anyone should take the Heat (+250) until the final injury report is released, if at all.

Boston should even this series up before these teams head back to Miami for Game 5 but the Celtics (-320) are a terrible long-term return on investment at that price.

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Against the spread

LEAN HEAT +6.5 (-105) since they have enough defense and experience to muck this game up. If that doesn’t work then Miami’s 3-point shooting (ranked 1st during the regular season) is good enough to sneak a backdoor cover.

However, there’s no reason to rush to bet on Miami’s spread because this number will get bigger if any of the Heat’s ball-handlers or Butler are officially announced out for Game 4.

There’s a contrarian angle to taking the HEAT +6.5 (-105) as well because most of the public is going to be on the Celtics based on the “zig-zag theory” and with Miami’s sketchy injury report. A contrarian mindset is a profitable foundation for sports betting.

Over/Under

BET the UNDER 206.5 (-115) because there’s reverse line movement headed south of the total, Boston was 24th in pace during the regular season, Miami was 28th and the Heat will probably try to slow this game down with their banged-up backcourt.

Roughly 70% of the action and money is on the Over per Tipico Sportsbook, but the total has been lowered from a 208.5-point opener. This line movement is suspicious since oddsmakers typically adjust the line according to their liability.

Miami’s defense ranked 6th in second-chance points per game (PPG) allowed and 1st in paint PPG allowed in the regular season. Boston’s defense was 5th in second-chance PPG allowed and 2nd in paint PPG allowed. Also, these teams were tied for the best defensive 3-point percentage in the NBA.

The UNDER 206.5 (-115) is my favorite wager in this game because of the market movement and the Over cashing in the first 3 games of this series so we are due for an Under.

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Miami Heat at Boston Celtics Game 3 odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s Miami Heat at Boston Celtics Game 3 lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The No. 1 seed Miami Heat stop by the TD Garden to face the No. 2 seed Boston Celtics Saturday for Game 3 of the Eastern Conference Finals. Tip-off is set for 8:30 p.m. ET (ABC) with the best-of-7 series tied 1-1. Below, we look at the Heat vs. Celtics odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

Boston evened the series by blasting Miami 127-102 Thursday in Game 2. The Celtics went into halftime with a 25-point lead, which they held by outperforming the Heat in three of the “four factors.”

Celtics SF Jayson Tatum scored a team-high 27 points, while PG Marcus Smart and SG Jaylen Brown chipped in 24 apiece. Tatum and Brown shot a combined 56.7% from the field (17 of 30) and Smart nearly put up a triple-double in his series debut, finishing with 12 assists and 9 rebounds.

Miami SF Jimmy Butler was sensational again in Game 3, scoring 29 points on 61.1% shooting (11 of 18), but no other Heat player scored more than 14 points.

Heat at Celtics odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 2:19 p.m. ET.

Money line (ML): Heat +190 (bet $100 to win $190) | Celtics -240 (bet $240 to win $100)
Against the spread: Heat +5.5 (-107) | Celtics -5.5 (-115)
Over/Under: 207.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)

Heat at Celtics key injuries

Heat

PG Kyle Lowry (hamstring) questionable
SG Max Strus (hamstring) questionable
PF P.J. Tucker (knee) questionable
PG Gabe Vincent (hamstring) questionable

Celtics

C Robert Williams III (knee) questionable

[tipico]

Heat at Celtics picks and predictions

Prediction

Celtics 105, Heat 101

Money line

PASS with a heavy “lean” to the Heat (+190) because I like their spread and generally will “sprinkle” on an underdog’s ML when betting them to cover.

But Butler didn’t get much support from teammates when this series was in Miami and role players typically perform better at home in the playoffs.

Also, the Heat’s ML will get juicier if Tucker and/or Lowry cannot suit up for Game 3, but Miami’s defense vs. Boston’s All-Star wings will be a question mark without Tucker.

PASS.

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Against the spread

BET HEAT +5.5 (-107) because there’s a “Pros vs. Joe’s” scenario in the betting market and Miami has been profitable following losses and as road underdogs this season.

According to Tipico Sportsbook, more money is on the Heat, but 61% of the bets placed are on the Celtics -5.5 (-115). Since professional bettors put up more dough than the average Joe, the cash column of the betting splits is considered the sharp side of the market.

Also, Miami is 20-11-1 ATS following a loss, 14-7 ATS with an NBA-best plus-6.0 ATS margin, 16-10 ATS on the road vs. teams with a winning record and 11-6 ATS as a 5-to-7.5-point underdog.

Meanwhile, the Celtics are 19-24-1 ATS as home favorites and 14-12-1 ATS at home vs. winning teams.

BET HEAT +5.5 (-107).

Over/Under

Slight LEAN to the UNDER 207.5 (-107).

There’s reverse-line movement headed south of the total, both teams played at a bottom third of the NBA in pace during the regular season and this series is playing at a slower pace than their regular-season tempos.

Also, nearly 70% of the bets placed are on the Over 207.5 (-115), according to Pregame.com, but the total has been lowered down from the 208.5-point opener.

This type of suspicious line movement leads me to believe that the oddsmakers would like more pro-Over money. If anything, go the other way.

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Miami Heat at Boston Celtics odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Wednesday’s Miami Heat at Boston Celtics odds and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

Despite losing its last game, the Boston Celtics (47-29) enter Wednesday’s matchup with the Miami Heat (48-28) as the hottest team in the league. But they face a big test against the Eastern Conference leaders. Tip-off from TD Garden will be at 7:30 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Heat vs. Celtics odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

The Heat snapped their four-game losing streak Monday with a 123-100 win over the Sacramento Kings. Miami is just 4-6 in its last 10 games, with five of those losses coming as the favorite. The Heat lead the NBA in 3-point percentages (37.4%) and defensively, they allow the fourth-fewest points per game (105.2).

The Celtics were extremely short-handed in their last game against the Toronto Raptors, missing SF Jayson Tatum, SG Jaylen Brown and C Robert Williams. As 8.5-point underdogs, they still managed to take the Raptors into OT before losing 115-112. Boston is 8-2 in its last 10 games and currently holds the third seed in the East.

Heat at Celtics odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:37 a.m. ET.

Money line: Heat +170 (bet $100 to win $170) | Celtics -210 (bet $210 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Heat +5.5 (-120) | Celtics -5.5 (-105)
Over/Under (O/U): 213.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)

Heat at Celtics key injuries

Heat

SF Caleb Martin (calf) questionable
SF Duncan Robinson (illness) questionable
G Gabe Vincent (toe) questionable

Celtics

SF Jayson Tatum (knee) probable
SG Jaylen Brown (knee) probable
C Robert Williams III (knee) out

[tipico]

Heat at Celtics odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Celtics 113, Heat 107

Money line

The Celtics were already considered one of the best teams in the league but in their loss to the Raptors on Monday, they showed how deep and unreliant they are on their stars. Now with Tatum and Brown expected to be back, the Celtics will pick up where they left off when they had won six straight.

If the line dips below -200, take the CELTICS (-210) to win outright. But only make it a quarter- or half-unit because the spread is a better wager.

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Against the spread

The Celtics are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games. The Heat’s ATS record in their last 10 is, well, unsightly. They’re just 2-8 ATS in that span, struggling to cover the spread against lesser opponents.

Miami is only 3-3 when getting 5-7 points, while the Celtics are 12-6 when giving up 5-7 points as the favorites. Bet the CELTICS -5.5 (-105).

Over/Under

The total has gone over in each of the Celtics’ last six games and in five of the last six Heat games. These are two of the best defenses in the league, but the Celtics are moving the ball well and getting open looks often, which should continue against the Heat.

Bet the OVER 213.5 (-115).

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Miami Heat at Boston Celtics odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Monday’s Miami Heat at Boston Celtics odds and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Miami Heat (32-18) visit Beantown Monday for a 7:30 p.m. ET game against the Boston Celtics (26-25) at the TD Garden. Below, we look at the Heat vs. Celtics odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

Miami lost at home to the Toronto Raptors 124-120 in triple overtime Saturday as 2.5-point favorites. Over the past two weeks, the Heat are 4-2 straight-up (SU) and 3-3 against the spread (ATS).

Boston beat the Pelicans 107-97 in New Orleans Saturday as 7-point road favorites. The Celtics are 3-3 SU and ATS in the last 14 days.

The Celtics (+6.5) crushed the Heat 95-78 in their first meeting this season, Nov. 4. Most of the damage was done in the second quarter where Boston outscored Miami 33-9, but the Celtics also won three of the “four factors”.

Heat at Celtics odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:35 a.m. ET.

Money line: Heat +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Celtics -155 (bet $155 to win $100)
Against the spread: Heat +3.5 (-115) | Celtics -3.5 (-107)
Over/Under (O/U): 209.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)

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Heat at Celtics key injuries

Heat

SF Jimmy Butler (ankle) questionable
C Omer Yurtseven (health and safety protocols) out
PG Kyle Lowry (personal) out

Celtics

None.

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Heat at Celtics odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Celtics 107, Heat 101

Money line

PASS ON THE MONEY LINE.

Boston is the right side, but the Celtics (-155) is a little too expensive, especially against a Heat (+125) team that’s an NBA-best 11-5 SU as an underdog with a plus-8.0 margin of victory.

Against the spread

BET the CELTICS -3.5 (-107) for a variety of reasons.

First of all, Boston matches up well with Miami since the Celtics have the frontcourt to neutralize Heat big Bam Adebayo, and Boston forwards Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown is too much for Butler to handle. And that’s even if Butler plays, he is listed on Miami’s injury report as “questionable”.

But, Tatum and Brown are averaging a combined 50.3 points per game in January, and both are having their best shooting month of the season by true shooting percentage.

In fact, Tatum and Brown’s production is the major reason the Celtics are fourth in net rating this month (plus-7.8), three spots ahead of the Heat’s net rating (plus-5.9).

Plus Boston gets up for home games against quality competition. For instance, the Celtics are 5-2 SU at home versus top-10 teams in efficiency differential with a plus-6.8 adjusted net rating (ranked second) and a plus-4.4 ATS margin (ranked third), according to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG).

Furthermore, the Celtics are better than their record indicates. In fact, Boston has a minus-4.2 win differential, which essentially means the Celtics should have four more wins (CTG). Also, Boston has a better shot quality differential than Miami according to both CTG and ShotQuality.com.

Finally, the Celtics may be able to get cheap points at the charity stripe because they are seventh in adjusted offensive free-throw rate while the Heat are 26th in adjusted defensive free-throw rate, per CTG.

BET the CELTICS -3.5 (-107) for 1 unit.

Over/Under

PASS with a slight “lean” towards the Under 209.5 (-107) because Boston is 25th in pace, Miami is 29th in pace, both teams are in the top-seven of defensive rating and the Celtics are 9-14 O/U as a home favorite with a minus-4.5 total margin.

However, Miami is 5-0 O/U over the past five games, the Over has cashed in six of the past eight Heat-Celtics meetings and both shoot an above-average 3-point attempt rate.

PASS ON THE TOTAL because it’s just too tough to call.

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Miami Heat at Boston Celtics odds, picks and prediction

Previewing Sunday’s Miami Heat at Boston Celtics NBA odds and lines, with basketball picks, tips and predictions.

The Miami Heat (36-31) play the first of a two-game set against the Boston Celtics (35-32) Sunday at TD Garden. Tip-off is set for 1 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze the Heat vs. Celtics odds and lines, with NBA picks and predictions.

The Heat has won four of the past five games overall, and they’re 3-1-1 against the spread during the span.

That includes a 121-112 win over the Minnesota Timberwolves as eight-point favorites last time out. Miami has also hit the Over in eight straight outings.

The Celtics were whipped 121-99 against the Chicago Bulls Friday, and they have won just three times across the past eight outings while going just 2-6 ATS. The Over is 6-1 in their past seven contests.

Heat at Celtics: Odds, spread and lines

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:45 a.m. ET.

Money line: Heat +100 (bet $100 to win $100) | Celtics -120 (bet $120 to win $100)
Against the spread/ATS: Heat +1.5 (-110) | Celtics -1.5 (-110)
Over/Under: 220.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

Heat at Celtics: Key injuries

Heat

SG Andre Iguodala (quadricep) questionable
SG Victor Oladipo (knee) out

Celtics

SG Jaylen Brown (ankle) questionable
C Robert Williams III (toe) probable

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Heat at Celtics: Odds, lines, predictions and picks

Prediction

Heat 119, Celtics 113

Money line (ML)

The HEAT (+100) are the play at even money. Miami is playing much better lately, as the Celtics (-120) were dusted last time out against the Bulls.

Boston is in danger of being forced to the play-in, and Miami is a team on the rise, similar to the team which caught fire last season in the bubble.

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Against the spread (ATS)

The HEAT +1.5 (-110) aren’t really worth playing, unless you feel this game will be a one-point Celtics -1.5 (-110) win. It’s best to play them straight up on the money line instead.

Over/Under (O/U)

OVER 220.5 (-115) is the best play on the board. The Over has cashed in eight consecutive games for the Heat, while hitting in six of the past seven for the Celtics, and nine of the past 13.

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