Heat Bucks odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

Miami Heat at Milwaukee Bucks odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Monday’s Miami Heat at Milwaukee Bucks odds and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Miami Heat (1-2) and Milwaukee Bucks (1-1) square off Monday with tip-off from Fiserv Forum set for 8 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Heat vs. Bucks odds and make our expert NBA picks and predictions.

Season series: First meeting; tied 2-2 in regular season last year with Heat defeating Bucks 4-1 in the playoffs

The Heat were contained by the Minnesota Timberwolves Saturday night 106-90. F Jimmy Butler sat out of that one for load management. They’re having problems on offense as they’re 28th in the NBA with 101.3 points per game. They’re 28th with a 41-percent field goal percentage as well.

The Bucks were throttled 127-110 at home by the Atlanta Hawks Sunday as PG Damian Lillard had just 6 points on 2-for-12 shooting. So they’re on the back end of a back-to-back with the bad taste in their mouths.

Heat at Bucks odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:32 p.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Heat +220 (bet $100 to win $220) | Bucks -275 (bet $275 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Heat +6.5 (-110) | Bucks -6.5 (-110)
Over/Under (O/U): 224.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Heat at Bucks key injuries

Heat

F Kevin Love (shoulder) game-time decision
G Caleb Martin (knee) game-time decision

Bucks

F Khris Middleton (knee) game-time decision

For most recent updates: Official NBA injury report.

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Heat at Bucks picks and predictions

Prediction

Bucks 111, Heat 101

Moneyline

I’m siding with the Bucks, despite being on the back-to-back, because I don’t think the Heat can stop F Giannis Antetokounmpo, and I don’t think the Heat can score the 110 on them it will take to beat them. The Heat went from +180 to +220 Monday morning.

That said, there is no chance we’re taking the Bucks at this price. PASS.

Against the spread

The Heat are 1-2 ATS this year with their only cover against an inflated line against the Boston Celtics, and they barely covered that 9.5-point line. The line went from 5.5 to 6.5, and that’s about my limit to take BUCKS -6.5 (-110).

Over/Under

The total blimped up from 214.5 to 224.5, which means the books are expecting a blowout by Milwaukee. I liked the Under before the explosion because of how inept Miami has been on offense. They have trouble breaking 105, which means the Bucks have to drop 115 possibly without Middleton.

Take the UNDER 224.5 (-110).

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Miami Heat at Milwaukee Bucks Game 5 odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Wednesday’s Miami Heat at Milwaukee Bucks Game 5 odds and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Miami Heat visit the Milwaukee Bucks on Wednesday for Game 5 of their 1st round Eastern Conference playoff series. Miami leads the series 3-1. Tip from Fiserv Forum is scheduled for 9:30 p.m. ET (NBA TV). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Heat vs. Bucks odds, and make our expert NBA picks and predictions.

The Heat took down the Bucks 119-114 at home Monday, covering as 7.5-point underdogs and taking a 3-1 series lead. F Jimmy Butler carried the load with 56 points on 19-of-28 shooting and going 15 of 18 from the free throw line. C Bam Adebayo was 2nd on the team with 15 points.

Milwaukee was up by as many as 15 points at one point during the game before Butler took over. C Brook Lopez scored a team-high 36 points to go along with 11 rebounds while F Giannis Antetokounmpo racked in a triple-double with 26 points, 10 rebounds and 13 assists. The Bucks outscored the Heat 54-40 in the paint as well but were outscored 22-13 on fast break points.

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Heat at Bucks odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Heat +475 (bet $100 to win $475) | Bucks -650 (bet $650 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Heat +11.5 (-110) | Bucks -11.5 (-110)
Over/Under (O/U): 219.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Heat at Bucks key injuries

Heat

C Bam Adebayo (hamstring) probable

Bucks

F Giannis Antetokounmpo (back) probable

For most recent updates: Official NBA injury report.

Heat at Bucks picks and predictions

Prediction

Bucks 117, Heat 109

Moneyline

PASS.

Barring another outlier performance from Butler, the Bucks (-650) should easily win this matchup at home. However, there is no profit to be made on the Milwaukee moneyline at these odds.

Against the spread

LEAN BUCKS -11.5 (-110).

With their backs against the ropes and returning to their home court, expect the Bucks to set the tone early and never look back. They took an 11-point lead into the 4th quarter of Game 4 before losing all momentum and allowing Miami back into the game. Milwaukee did a good job of shutting down Miami outside of Butler, as the next-best shooting performance was 6 of 16 from the field. Other than Butler’s 18 free throw attempts, the Bucks allowed just 7 trips to the charity stripe.

The Bucks are 24-19 against the spread (ATS) at home this season while the Heat are just 16-25-1 ATS on the road.

Over/Under

BET OVER 219.5 (-110).

The Over has hit in each of the first 4 games of this series — by an average of more than 22 points per game. Of the 8 total 1st round playoff series, this series ranks 3rd in total pace with 101.63 showcasing these teams’ ability to push the ball which results in scoring more.

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Miami Heat at Milwaukee Bucks Game 2 odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Wednesday’s Miami Heat at Milwaukee Bucks Game 2 odds and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Miami Heat battle the Milwaukee Bucks in Game 2 of their 1st-round playoff series on Wednesday. Tip from Fiserv Forum is set for 9 p.m. ET (NBA TV). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Heat vs. Bucks odds, and make our expert NBA picks and predictions.

Miami leads the series 1-0 after covering as a 9-point road favorite on Sunday. The Heat was led in the 130-117 win by a 35-point, 11-assist performance from F Jimmy Butler and a 22-point, 9-rebound showing from C Bam Adebayo. The Heat’s biggest concern moving forward is how to replace the production of G Tyler Herro who exited the game with a fractured hand after scoring 12 points in less than 20 minutes.

The Bucks were led by 33 points from F Kris Middleton, 21 from F Bobby Portis, and a 16-point, 16-assist performance from G Jrue Holiday. F Giannis Antetokounmpo exited the game early with just 6 points after a scary fall resulting in a back injury. Replacing the ‘Greek Freak’ could prove to be challenging for Milwaukee.

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Heat at Bucks odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:18 p.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Heat +200 (bet $100 to win $200) | Bucks -250 (bet $250 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Heat +6.5 (-110) | Bucks -6.5 (-110)
Over/Under (O/U): 218.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

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Heat at Bucks key injuries

Heat

G Tyler Herro (hand) out
F Nikola Jovic (back) out
G Kyle Lowry (knee) questionable

Bucks

F Giannis Antetokounmpo (back) doubtful
G Wesley Matthews (out) calf

For most recent updates: Official NBA injury report.

Heat at Bucks picks and predictions

Prediction

Bucks 115, Heat 111

Moneyline

PASS.

At -250 odds, there is no profit to be made on a Bucks moneyline play.

Against the spread

LEAN HEAT +6.5 (-115).

While Milwaukee should claim a Game 2 victory, it will be tough to dominate the game and control the pace without Antetokounmpo, who will most likely be sidelined. Without his dominant presence, expect the Heat to look to Adebayo to keep them in this game.

A line of 6.5 points is too high to bet against a hot Miami team facing a Bucks team without their superstar.

Over/Under

BET OVER 218.5 (-115).

The Over hit by 26 points in Game 1 with a closing line of 221.

The Over is 6-0 in the Heat’s last 6 games and 4-1 in the Bucks’ last 5. The Over is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings between these franchises and 7-3 in the last 10 meetings overall.

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Miami Heat at Milwaukee Bucks Game 1 odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Sunday’s Miami Heat at Milwaukee Bucks Game 1 odds and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The 8th-seeded Miami Heat meet the 1-seed Milwaukee Bucks Sunday for Game 1 of their 1st-round playoff series. Tip-off from Fiserv Forum is set for 5:30 p.m. ET (TNT). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Heat vs. Bucks odds, and make our expert NBA picks and predictions.

Regular season series was tied 2-2.

Miami secured the 8 seed with a 102-91 win Friday over the Chicago Bulls as 5-point home favorites. Miami guards Jimmy Butler and Max Strus led the way, each scoring 31 points and combining for 17 made free throws. The Heat were the 2nd-best scoring defense in the regular season, only allowing 109.8 pointe per game (PPG).

Milwaukee finished the regular season with a league best 58-24 record, with MVP finalist F Giannis Antetokounmpo leading the charge. Giannis averaged 31.1 point and 11.8 rebounds per game (RPG) for the Bucks. The Bucks also have C Brook Lopez, who finished as a finalist for DPOY, with his 2.5 blocks per game tied for 2nd in the league. Milwaukee was the best rebounding team, averaging 48.6 RPG.

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Heat at Bucks odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:53 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Heat +325 (bet $100 to win $325) | Bucks -400 (bet $400 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Heat +9.5 (-115) | Bucks -9.5 (-105)
Over/Under (O/U): 219.5 (O: +100 | U: -120)

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Heat at Bucks key injuries

Heat

F Nikola Jovic (back) out
G Kyle Lowry (knee) questionable
G Gabe Vincent (hip) questionable

Bucks

None

For most recent updates: Official NBA injury report.

Heat at Bucks picks and predictions

Prediction

Bucks 122, Heat 110

Moneyline

AVOID.

The Bucks should win this game despite the tightness of the regular season series. Expect Giannis and his co-stars to dominate a Heat team that has stars, but are very inconsistent. The line here is far too rich for my blood as the risk here is not worth the reward.

Against the spread

LEAN BUCKS -9.5 (-105).

Expect the defense of Milwaukee to stifle this Heat team that had the worst offense in the NBA, averaging only 109.5 ppg. A playoff game having a spread this high is a risky bet, but the trends clearly suggest to lean toward the Bucks. The Heat are only 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Milwaukee.

Over/Under

BET OVER 219.5 (+100).

For Miami the Over is 5-0 in their last 5 overall and for Milwaukee the Over is 6-1 in their last 7 after scoring 100+ in their previous game. The Over is also 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in Milwaukee.

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Miami Heat at Milwaukee Bucks odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s Miami Heat at Milwaukee Bucks odds and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Miami Heat (32-27) battle the Milwaukee Bucks (41-17) Friday. Tip from Fiserv Forum is set for 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN). Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook’s lines around the Heat vs. Bucks odds, and make our expert NBA picks and predictions.

This will be the last regular-season battle between thecteams with the Heat having won 2 of the 3. The home team has won and covered in each battle. The total is 1-2 O/U.

The Heat are just 2-8 against the spread (ATS) in their last 10 games and are 1-6 ATS in their last 7. They are coming off a 116-105 loss at Brooklyn on Feb. 15, failing to cover as a 1.5-point underdog. Miami is 32-27 ATS on the season.

The Bucks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games and are coming off a Feb. 16 win over the Bulls, beating Chicago 112-100 and covering as a 7.5-point road underdog. Milwaukee is 32-24-2 ATS on the season.

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Heat at Bucks odds

Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:33 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Heat +100 (bet $100 to win $100) | Bucks -120 (bet $120 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Heat +1.5 (-110) | Bucks -1.5 (-110)
Over/Under (O/U): 218.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)

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Heat at Bucks key injuries

Heat

G Tyler Herro (knee) probable
G Kyle Lowry (knee) out

Bucks

F Giannis Antetokoumpo (wrist) doubtful
G Pat Connaughton (calf) doubtful

For most recent updates: Official NBA injury report.

Heat at Bucks picks and predictions

Prediction

Heat 114, Bucks 110

Moneyline

PASS.

The moneyline and spread both aren’t bad options given how close they are. I would prefer the 1.5-point spread for the underdog instead.

Against the spread

LEAN HEAT +1.5 (-110).

The weapons are there for the Heat. The Bucks played most of their last game without their 2-time MVP, but the Bulls shot just 38% from the field. The Heat should have more success with Herro, F Jimmy Butler and C Bam Adebayo taking the court.

Also, without Antetokounmpo, C Brook Lopez and G Jrue Holiday will need to step up, and All-Defensive team players, Adebayo and Butler, should limit what they can do offensively. The Bucks are 5-4 without Antetkounmpo.

Given the lack of Giannis and the subsequent ability for the Heat to defend Milwaukee’s top scoring options, back the HEAT +1.5 (-110).

Over/Under

BET OVER 218.5 (-112).

The Bucks have scored at least 110 in their last 6 games, dropping 123 on Miami Feb. 4 in a 123-115 win. The Bucks even scored 112 against Chicago on the road without Antetokounmpo for most of the game.

The Heat have gone Over in 2 straight and in 4 of their last 6. They have scored at least 107 points in 4 of those 6 games.

Considering the Bucks’ ability to score without their star in the lineup and the Heat’s recent success covering the Over, back the OVER 218.5 (-112).

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Miami Heat at Milwaukee Bucks odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Wednesday’s Miami Heat at Milwaukee Bucks odds and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Milwaukee Bucks (37-25) host budding Eastern Conference rival in the Miami Heat (41-21) Wednesday. Tip-off at the Fiserv Forum is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Heat vs. Bucks odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

Miami is on a 4-game winning streak (three since the All-Star game) and 2-1-1 against the spread (ATS) in those contests. The Heat’s latest victory was a 112-99 beatdown of the Chicago Bulls at home as 5-point favorites Monday. Miami is 2 games atop the East, 4 games in front of the fourth-place Bucks.

Milwaukee split its first two games following the All-Star break, losing at home 126-123 to the Brooklyn Nets as a 9.5-point favorite Saturday and beating the Charlotte Hornets 130-106 Monday as a 10.5-point home favorite.

The Heat are 2-1 straight up (SU) and ATS versus the Bucks this season with an Over/Under (O/U) of 2-1.

Also see: Bet Slippin’ Podcast: NBA March 2 breakdown

Heat at Bucks odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 2:24 p.m. ET.

Money line (ML): Heat +145 (bet $100 to win $145) | Bucks -180 (bet $180 to win $100)
Against the spread: Heat +4.5 (-112) | Bucks -4.5 (-108)
Over/Under: 224.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Heat at Bucks key injuries

Heat

SF Martin Caleb (Achilles) questionable
PG Kyle Lowry (personal reasons) out

Bucks

SG Pat Connaughton (finger) out
PG George Hill (neck) out
C Brook Lopez (back) out

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Heat at Bucks odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Heat 116, Bucks 112

Money line

BACK the HEAT (+145) for a tiny wager – if at all – because Miami’s spread is the much sharper wager.

Everyone is waiting for the Bucks to begin their ascension atop the East, but the Heat are unquestionably the better team through 60-plus games and the numbers back it up.

Not only do the Heat have a better overall record, but they have higher effective field-goal shooting and rebounds per game differentials than Bucks.

Also, Miami does a better job winning tight games. The Heat are 18-11 SU in “clutch” situations while the Bucks are just 15-16 SU in those spots. “Clutch” is defined by games within a 5-point margin inside of five minutes to play.

Again, my preference is Miami getting points, but there’s some value in the HEAT (+145) all the way down to +135.

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Against the spread

Definitely BET the HEAT +4.5 (-112) heavier than or instead of their money line for a variety of reasons.

This is a Pros vs. Joe’s game in the betting market as roughly 80% of the cash is on Miami’s spread, but a slight majority of the bets placed are on the Bucks -4.5 (-108), according to VegasInsider.com. Typically, it’s wise in sports betting to follow the money when it’s counter to the public.

It’s also a much better spot for the Heat, who are 9-5 ATS as road underdogs with a plus-7.5 ATS margin, while the Bucks are 10-19 ATS as home favorites with a minus-3.9 ATS margin.

MIAMI +4.5 (-112) is by far my favorite wager in this game.

Over/Under

PASS.

I’m much more comfortable betting the Heat’s ML and spread than the total.

I “lean” to the Over 224.5 (-110) because Miami scored 137 points in the only Heat-Bucks meeting that both SF Jimmy Butler and C Bam Adebayo played. Both are projected to be Miami’s starting 5 Wednesday. Plus, Milwaukee is 8-1 O/U in its last nine games.

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Miami Heat at Milwaukee Bucks odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Saturday’s Miami Heat at Milwaukee Bucks odds and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Miami Heat (14-9) visit the “Cream City” Saturday for an 8 p.m. ET game against the Milwaukee Bucks (14-9) at the Fiserv Forum. Below, we look at the Heat vs. Bucks odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions, and bets.

Miami is 3-3 overall and 2-4 ATS over its past six games with the latest being a 113-104 road win over the Indiana Pacers Friday. The Heat are 14-9 ATS and 14-9 O/U with the fifth-best net rating.

Milwaukee had its eight-game winning streak snapped Thursday in a 97-93 road loss to the Toronto Raptors in a game Giannis Antetokounmpo missed. The Bucks are 10-13 ATS and 8-15 O/U with the seventh-best net rating.

Milwaukee swept Miami in the first round of the Eastern Conference playoffs last season (4-0 ATS) and won two of three regular-season meetings. However, the Heat blasted the Bucks 137-95 in their first meeting this season Oct. 21.

Heat at Bucks odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 2:50 p.m. ET.

Money line: Heat +220 (bet $100 to win $220) | Bucks -280 (bet $280 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Heat +6.5 (-112) | Bucks -6.5 (-108)
Over/Under (O/U): 211.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)

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Heat at Bucks key injuries

Heat

SF Jimmy Butler (back) out
C Bam Adebayo (thumb) out

Bucks

SF Giannis Antetokounmpo (calf) doubtful
PG George Hill (knee) probable

Heat at Bucks odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Bucks 116, Heat 112

Money line

PASS with a slight “lean” to the Heat (+220) because Miami plus the points is the side I’m on. Plus I think the Heat are too well-coached to be getting more than +200 against a team missing its best player.

Giannis Antetokounmpo is having an MVP-caliber season thus far and we’ve seen how mediocre the Bucks can be when they are without one of their Big 3.

Against the spread

“LEAN” to the HEAT +6.5 (-112) based on the rationale above, but I’d wait to get an official announcement on Giannis’s game status before placing a wager.

If Giannis plays, the Bucks will probably smack the Heat. If Giannis doesn’t play then we’ll still get points with the Heat.

Furthermore, Giannis grades in the 99th percentile of on/off court efficiency differential, according to CleaningTheGlass.com.

On top of that, Milwaukee is 0-2 overall without Giannis in the lineup and 3-5 overall when Khris Middleton was sidelined. The point is, the Bucks are far less profitable if one of these guys isn’t in the lineup.

For what it’s worth, there’s also a “fade the market” angle to play here since a vast majority of bettors are backing Milwaukee despite the probable absence of Giannis.

Also, Miami head coach Erik Spoelstra is one of the best coaches in the league, which is a major reason the Heat are 8-2 ATS vs. teams with a winning record this season.

Granted, the Heat are without their two best players but there’s just more value in the road underdog in this spot.

“LEAN” the HEAT +6.5 (-115) pending Giannis’s final game status.

Over/Under

BET the OVER 211.5 (-115) for 1 unit as my favorite play in this contest because of how these teams match up. For instance, these Heat-Bucks games in recent seasons have been 3-point shootouts.

Since the beginning of 2019, Miami has an average 3-point attempt rate of 45.6% and Milwaukee has a 43.4% average 3-point attempt rate in their 16 head-to-head meetings, which includes the postseason. To put that into perspective, those rates would be in top-5 across the NBA this year.

Moreover, I think the Heat picks up the pace and tries to turn this game into a 3-point shootout to compensate for Butler and Adebayo’s absence. Miami knows it’ll be significantly outgunned and the Heat’s best chance to win this game is to get hot from behind the arc.

Because Milwaukee is one of the fastest-paced, highest 3-point shooting teams in the Association, I think the Bucks will engage in a high-octane game.

Lastly, the market is hammering the Under in this game presumably because Giannis will most likely be out. But, you could make the argument Giannis’ absence affects Milwaukee’s defense as much as its offense.

Plus roughly 80% of the action is on the Over according to both the Yahoo! Sports app and Pregame.com. Eight out of 10 bettors don’t beat the House. And all the pro-Over money has steamed the Heat-Bucks total down four points from the opener. I’ll fade the market and all that line movement.

BET THE OVER 211.5 (-115).

If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Please gamble responsibly.

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Miami Heat at Milwaukee Bucks Game 1 odds, picks and prediction

Previewing Saturday’s Miami Heat at Milwaukee Bucks Game 1 odds and lines, with NBA picks, tips and predictions.

The 6-seed Miami Heat and 3-seed Milwaukee Bucks play Game 1 of their Eastern Conference first-round series Saturday at Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee. Tip-off is set for 2 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze the Heat vs. Bucks odds and lines, with NBA picks and predictions.

The Heat head into the postseason with wins in five of the past six outings, although that lone loss came May 15 in Milwaukee by a 122-108 count.

Despite that loss and non-cover, they’re still 5-1 ATS in the past six, and 10-4-1 ATS across the past 15 games overall.

The Bucks dropped their regular-season finale in Chicago by a 118-112 count, and while they won eight of the final 10 straight up, they’re just 1-6 ATS across the past seven outings.

Heat at Bucks: Odds, spread and lines

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 5:55 a.m. ET.

Money line: Heat +165 (bet $100 to win $165) | Bucks -200 (bet $200 to win $100)
Against the spread/ATS: Heat +5 (-110) | Bucks -5 (-110)
Over/Under: 226.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Heat at Bucks: Key injuries

Heat

Nothing affecting gambling odds.

Bucks

Nothing affecting gambling odds.

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Heat at Bucks: Odds, lines, predictions and picks

Prediction

Heat 118, Bucks 114

Money line (ML)

The HEAT (+165) were able to trip up the Bucks (-200) last season, winning in five games during the Eastern Conference Semifinals.

While Miami has taken a step back this season, especially with its guard play, they still finished up strong and will be a hard out as long as Jimmy Butler is healthy.

They’ll get off on the right foot in Game 1 before the Bucks tighten up and roll the rest of the series.

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Against the spread (ATS)

The HEAT +5 (-110) are a good play with the points if you’re not feeling them straight up. The Bucks -5 (-110) did go 2-1 SU/ATS in three regular-season meetings with the Heat.

However, Miami has rolled down the stretch and in the past month, it has looked more like the team that made the NBA Finals.

Over/Under (O/U)

OVER 226.5 (-110) is the way to go. Miami has hit the Over in six of the past seven on the road, and 11 of the previous 13 overall.

The Over hit in five of the final seven for Milwaukee, while cashing in five of the past seven as a favorite, too.

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Miami Heat at Milwaukee Bucks odds, picks and prediction

Previewing Saturday’s Miami Heat at Milwaukee Bucks NBA odds and lines, with basketball picks, tips and predictions.

The Milwaukee Bucks (45-25) host the Miami Heat (39-31) Saturday in their regular-season home finale at Fiserv Forum. Tip-off is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze the Heat-Bucks odds and lines, with NBA picks and predictions.

Miami has won four straight and seven of its last eight games (6-1-1 against the spread) with the latest being a 106-94 whooping of a fully loaded Philadelphia 76ers team Thursday.

The Heat have the same record as the fourth-place Atlanta Hawks and sixth-place New York Knicks but are the 5-seed due to the tiebreaker scenario.

Milwaukee has also won seven of its last eight games but has only covered in three of those contests. Two of those wins were against the Brooklyn Nets, who the Bucks are 1 game behind for second in the East.

These teams split a back-to-back in Miami December 29 and 30 with each team winning and covering a game.

Heat at Bucks: Odds, spread and lines

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:20 p.m. ET.

Money line: Heat -150 (bet $150 to win $100) | Bucks +125 (bet $100 to win $125)
Against the spread/ATS: Heat +3 (-110) | Bucks -3 (-110)
Over/Under: 230.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

Heat at Bucks: Key injuries

Heat

PG Kendrick Nunn (calf) questionable

Bucks

Nothing affecting gambling odds.

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Heat at Bucks: Odds, lines, predictions and picks

Prediction

Heat 118, Bucks 115

Money line (ML)

PASS because the line movement indicates Milwaukee is going to be resting its best players, but no official announcement has been made by the Bucks (+125).

As per usual, do not bet on this game until the official starting 5’s get announced because it would appear as though who is in Milwaukee’s starting 5 is based on the outcome of today’s Nets game against the Chicago Bulls.

If Brooklyn somehow loses against a Chicago team with nothing to play for then the Bucks are in the driver seat for the 2-seed since they own the tiebreaker with the Nets.

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Against the spread (ATS)

Slight “LEAN” to the BUCKS +3 (-110) for a tiny wager because at the moment we don’t know who’s playing, but if Milwaukee actually runs its best hoopers out there then we have an awesome number.

If you bet Milwaukee plus the points now (which you shouldn’t) and the backups get hot from three against a Miami defense that allows the second-most 3-point attempts per game then there are “middle” opportunities in-game.

For instance, BetMGM has live, in-game betting, and if the Bucks get out to a double-digit lead perhaps you can get the Heat’s in-game money line at near even-money for a freeroll at a scoop.

In this mock scenario, the Heat winning by two or one points would win the Bucks +3 and Miami’s in-game money line bet.

Over/Under (O/U)

Again, I can only slightly “LEAN” to the OVER 230.5 (-115) for a quarter unit because I’d assume the market’s preference with the Over is sharp money getting ahead of what could be a Milwaukee no-show tonight.

The Heat have the best offensive rating this month and if Giannis Antetokounmpo is given a rest day, then Miami’s offense should have a big night.

However, since the Heat’s defense allows opponents to chuck threes and there is a good chance Bucks’ backups will be firing from deep, Milwaukee can chip in on the Over cashing.

Want some action on this one? Place a bet at BetMGM now. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

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