Tag: Guardians Twins odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

The Cleveland Guardians (26-32) and Minnesota Twins (31-28) close out a 4-game set Sunday at Target Field. First pitch is at 2:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Guardians vs. Twins odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Tied 3-3

The Guardians got back in the win column with a 4-2 victory Saturday. They had 12 hits and scored 2 in the 7th inning and 1 more in the 9th to seal the deal. Cleveland has just been treading water thus far, 5-5, 9-11 and 13-17 over the last 10, 20 and 30 games, respectively.

The Twins snapped a 3-game winning streak Saturday as they took the first 2 of the series 7-6 and 1-0. They are 6-4 over the last 10 games as they try to extend their lead in the AL Central. Minnesota is 18-13 at home and 12-7 in the division.

[gambcom-standard rankid=”3011″ ]

[gambcom-standard rankid=”3012″ ]

Guardians at Twins projected starters

RHP Triston McKenzie vs. RHP Joe Ryan

McKenzie is making his season debut after recovering from a shoulder injury. He was 11-11 with a 2.96 ERA, a 0.95 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 8.9 K/9 in 191 1/3 innings last season.

• Had a 4.35 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and 13 K in 10 1/3 IP at Triple-A Columbus during 3 rehab starts.
• Last 5 starts vs. Twins: 1-2, 5.46 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 29 K in 31 1/3 IP

Ryan (7-2, 2.77 ERA) makes his 12th start. He has a 1.00 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9 and 10.5 K/9 in 65 innings.

• Last start: Loss, 4 IP, 5 ER, 4 H, 3 BB, 6 K vs. Houston Astros Tuesday
• Last 5 starts vs. Guardians: 2-1, 2.05 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 26 K in 30 2/3 IP

Guardians at Twins odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:25 a.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Guardians +130 (bet $100 to win $130) | Twins -155 (bet $155 to win $100)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Guardians +1.5 (-160) | Twins -1.5 (+135)
• Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

Win your fantasy baseball league with BaseballHQ.com. For decades, BHQ has been helping players just like you win! Use the couple code SBW23 for $15 OFF a full-season subscription. New customer offer; expires 9/30/2023. Subscribe today and start winning!

Guardians at Twins picks and predictions

Prediction

Twins 4, Guardians 2

Moneyline

Ryan is having the best season of his career, but he was tripped up by a surging Astros team in his last start. I look for him to rebound here as he has allowed just 7 ER in 30 2/3 IP over his last 5 starts against Cleveland.

I’m willing to take the -155 Twins moneyline. If you want to go there and call it a day, by all means do so. There’s a ton of value if you want to get creative, though. Head to the Win/Total section and give TWINS AND UNDER 8.5 (+170) for a HALF-UNIT and TWINS AND UNDER 9.5 (+130) for a FULL UNIT.

Run line/Against the spread

The Twins are just 29-30 on the RL this season and 14-17 at home. The 1st 2 games of this series were decided by 1 run, and I’m just not feeling them in this spot. We are forecasting a multi-run win, but Cleveland has the 2nd-best bullpen ERA at 3.08. McKenzie is also extremely talented, but I don’t look for him to go deep into this one in his first start.

PASS.

Play our free daily Pick’em Challenge and win! Play now!

Over/Under

These are both Under teams. Cleveland is 19-36-3 O/U, and Minnesota is 25-31-3. We’re in a big ballpark with a 6-mph wind coming in from center field. The Under has cashed in 7 of the last 10 meetings, and it’s 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.

We have already taken Under 9.5 and 8.5 in the moneyline section, and I’d rather stand pat there. I think both starters do their part early on, and I will take UNDER 4.5 FIRST 5 INNINGS (-155).

[gambcom-standard rankid=”5″ ]

For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow Ryan Dodson on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Additional MLB coverage:
BaseballHQ Fantasy Baseball
BaseballPress.com: Your source for every MLB lineup

[lawrence-newsletter]

[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1372]

The Cleveland Guardians (25-32) and the Minnesota Twins (31-27) play the 3rd contest in a 4-game series on Saturday at Target Field in Minneapolis. First pitch is scheduled for 7:15 p.m. ET (FOX). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Guardians vs. Twins odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Twins lead 3-2

The Guardians are ranked 29th in runs per game (3.61) and were shut out 1-0 Friday. Cleveland has dropped 12 of the past 16 games on the road, has lost 6 of the past 7 games against a right-handed starter and has lost each of its last 4 tries inside the AL Central.

The Twins have won 3 consecutive games, its longest win streak since winning 3 in a row from April 23-25. Minnesota is looking to tie a season-best with a 4th straight win, a feat it accomplished twice in April.

Minnesota has won 16 of its last 21 games at Target Field against a left-handed starting pitcher while cashing in 13 of its last 19 games inside the division.

[gambcom-standard rankid=”3011″ ]

[gambcom-standard rankid=”3012″ ]

Guardians at Twins projected starters

LHP Logan Allen vs. RHP Sonny Gray

Allen (2-2, 2.72 ERA) makes his 8th start. He has a 1.31 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 9.8 K/9 in 39 2/3 innings.

• Last start: Win, 7 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 2 BB, 10 K in a 5-0 road win vs. the Baltimore Orioles Monday
• 2023 Road splits: 1-1, 1.53 ERA (17 2/3 IP, 3 ER) with 5 BB, 23 K and a .209 opponent batting average (OBA) in 4 starts
• 2023 vs. Minnesota: No-decision, 5 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 7 H, 2 BB, 3 K in a 4-3 home win on May 6

Gray (4-0, 1.94 ERA) makes his 12th start. He has a 1.19 WHIP, 3.6 BB/9 and 10.3 K/9 in 60 1/3 innings.

• Last start: No-decision, 6 IP, 3 R (2 ER), 4 H, 3 BB, 3 K in a 7-5 road win vs. the Houston Astros Monday
• 2023 Home splits: 3-0, 1.27 ERA (35 1/3 IP, 5 ER – 0 HR) with a .198 OBA in 6 starts
• 2023 vs. Cleveland: No-decision, 5 IP, 3 ER, 4 H, 3 BB, 6 K in a 4-3 road loss opposite Allen on May 6

Guardians at Twins odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:15 a.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Guardians +115 (bet $100 to win $115) | Twins -140 (bet $140 to win $100)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Guardians +1.5 (-175) | Twins -1.5 (+145)
• Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

Win your fantasy baseball league with BaseballHQ.com. For decades, BHQ has been helping players just like you win! Use the couple code SBW23 for $15 OFF a full-season subscription. New customer offer; expires 9/30/2023. Subscribe today and start winning!

Guardians at Twins picks and predictions

Prediction

Twins 4, Guardians 1

Moneyline

The TWINS (-140) are a great play, as they look to go 3-for-3 to start this 4-game divisional series.

Minnesota has won a pair of 1-run games on Thursday and Friday, and Cleveland is unlikely to have much offense against Gray. He has allowed 1 or 0 runs in 5 of his 6 starts and allowed just 2 ER in the other outing.

The Twins have won 16 of the past 21 home games against a southpaw, and it is 13-6 in the past 19 inside the division.

Run line/Against the spread

The TWINS -1.5 (+145) are worth playing on the run line, even though the first 2 games have been won by just a single run.

The Guardians are unlikely to muster much offense against Gray, and 9 of Minnesota’s last 11 victories have actually been by 2 or more runs. If you like the Twins, you should like them on the run line.

Play our free daily Pick’em Challenge and win! Play now!

Over/Under

The UNDER 7.5 (-105) is the best play on the board, as Cleveland has really struggled to score runs this season.

The Under has cashed in 10 of the past 11 in Game 3 of a series while going 13-3-1 in the past 17 games inside the division. The Under is also 19-7 in the past 26 against a right-handed starting pitcher.

The Under is 4-1 in the Twins’ last 5 games inside the division and is 4-1 in their past 5 games against the Guardians. The Under is also 5-1 in the past 6 for Minnesota following a win.

[gambcom-standard rankid=”5″ ]

For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Additional MLB coverage:
BaseballHQ Fantasy Baseball
BaseballPress.com: Your source for every MLB lineup

[lawrence-newsletter]

[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1372]

The Cleveland Guardians (25-31) and Minnesota Twins (30-27) clash in an AL Central showdown Friday in Minneapolis. First pitch at Target Field is slated for 8:10 p.m. ET (Apple TV+). Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Guardians vs. Twins odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Twins lead 1-0

Cleveland lost Thursday’s series opener 7-6. The Guardians led 6-3 going into the bottom of the 8th, but Minnesota scored 3 runs in the 8th and a game-winner in the 9th. Cleveland is 3-9 over its last 12 road games.

The Minnesota offense has been feast or famine recently. The Twins have scored 7 or more runs 5 times and 1 run or fewer 3 times in their last 8 games.

[gambcom-standard rankid=”3011″ ]

[gambcom-standard rankid=”3012″ ]

Guardians at Twins projected starters

RHP Aaron Civale vs. RHP Bailey Ober

Civale (1-1, 2.84 ERA) makes his 3rd start. He has a 1.03 WHIP, 1.4 BB/9 and 5.7 K/9 through 12 2/3 IP.

• Returning from an oblique strain and a lengthy stay on the IL
• Last pitched in an MLB game on April 7: 5 2/3 IP, 4 ER, 9 H, 1 BB, 5 K vs. the Seattle Mariners
• Owns a 5.14 ERA over his last 5 starts against Minnesota (2020-22)

Ober (3-2, 2.68 ERA) makes his 8th start. He owns a 1.02 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 8.3 K/9 through 40 1/3 IP.

• Has held current Cleveland batters to an aggregate .157/.189/.196 (.385 OPS) line
• Started the season at Triple-A and made his season debut on April 23
• Has benefited from a .257 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) and a low 5.1% home runs/fly balls (HR/FB) mark

Guardians at Twins odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:53 a.m. ET.

• Moneyline: Guardians +114 (bet $100 to win $114) | Twins -134 (bet $134 to win $100)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Guardians +1.5 (-184) | Twins -1.5 (+152)
• Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

Win your fantasy baseball league with BaseballHQ.com. For decades, BHQ has been helping players just like you win! Use the couple code SBW23 for $15 OFF a full-season subscription. New customer offer; expires 9/30/2023. Subscribe today and start winning!

Guardians at Twins picks and predictions

Prediction

Twins 6, Guardians 4

Moneyline

Take the baselines for the starting pitchers, add in some gray area for the Civale return — a plus for the Minnesota offense — and a couple of percentage ticks for the home side, and the lines here are tough to parse.

PASS.

Run line/Against the spread

Take the ML commentary and add extra juice: AVOID.

Play our free daily Pick’em Challenge and win! Play now!

Over/Under

The Over is 5-2 in the last 7 series meetings in Minnesota.

The Twins’ offense has been average thus far, but Minnesota has been awful in high-leverage situations in part due to a .259 BABIP in those spots. With solid home numbers (.773 OPS), it’s not a reach to consider Minnesota to be a top-10 offense in waiting.

Civale is a talented hurler, but what Cleveland gets out of him in this return is a question mark, and Ober is too far out over his skis with his surface ERA. Both bullpens are outperforming their numbers too, and the Guardians’ relief corps — at least at the back end — is not set up well after being used in trying to nurse a lead on Thursday.

On a warm evening in Minneapolis, BACK THE OVER 8.5 (-105).

[gambcom-standard rankid=”5″ ]

For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Additional MLB coverage:
BaseballHQ Fantasy Baseball
BaseballPress.com: Your source for every MLB lineup

[lawrence-newsletter]

[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1372]

The Cleveland Guardians (25-30) and Minnesota Twins (29-27) meet Thursday to kick off a 4-game series. First pitch from Target Field is set for 7:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Guardians vs. Twins odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Guardians lead 2-1

Cleveland won 12-8 vs. the Baltimore Orioles as a -113 road favorite Wednesday. 1B Josh Naylor catapulted the Guardians to the victory with 6 RBIs. The Guardians are 3-1 in their last 4 games.

Minnesota won 8-2 as a +163 road underdog Wednesday vs. the Houston Astros. Minnesota never trailed as it took a 3-0 lead in the 3rd inning that started with an RBI single by 1B Donovan Solano that scored 2. The Twins are 3-2 in their last 5 contests but have not won back-to-back games since May 13-14.

[gambcom-standard rankid=”3011″ ]

[gambcom-standard rankid=”3012″ ]

Guardians at Twins projected starters

RHP Tanner Bibee vs. RHP Pablo Lopez

Bibee (1-1, 2.88 ERA) makes his 7th start. He has a 1.08 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 8.9 K/9 through 34 1/3 IP.

• Last outing: No-decision, 6 IP, 1 ER, 2 H, 1 BB, 9 K in a 2-1 home loss Saturday vs. St. Louis Cardinals
• First career start vs. Minnesota

Lopez (3-3, 4.11 ERA) makes his 12th start. He has a 1.13 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 11.1 K/9 through 65 2/3 IP.

• Last outing: Win, 5 2/3 IP, 4 ER, 5 H, 3 BB, 6 K in a 9-7 home win Saturday vs. Toronto Blue Jays
• Career vs. Cleveland: 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA (6 1/3 IP, 0 ER), 2 H, 0 HR, 2 BB, and 6 K through 1 start on April 19, 2019, as a member of the Miami Marlins

Guardians at Twins odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:50 a.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Guardians +120 (bet $100 to win $120) | Twins -145 (bet $145 to win $100)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Guardians +1.5 (-165) | Twins -1.5 (+140)
• Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Win your fantasy baseball league with BaseballHQ.com. For decades, BHQ has been helping players just like you win! Use the couple code SBW23 for $15 OFF a full-season subscription. New customer offer; expires 9/30/2023. Subscribe today and start winning!

Guardians at Twins picks and predictions

Prediction

Guardians 4, Twins 3

Moneyline

BET GUARDIANS (+120).

Cleveland has dominated Minnesota in recent matchups, going 11-2 in the last 13 meetings overall and 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Minnesota. The Twins are also just 1-6 in their last 7 series openers.

Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

The Guardians at +1.5 (-165) should be a very safe bet, but the risk here is not worth the reward when the moneyline and O/U are both great plays as well and offer better value.

Play our free daily Pick’em Challenge and win! Play now!

Over/Under

BET UNDER 8 (-110).

The Under is 11-2-2 in Cleveland’s last 15 series openers and 8-2 in their last 10 overall. The Under is 6-4 in Minnesota’s last 10 overall.

The Under is also 4-1 in the last 5 meetings between these squads and 7-3 in their last 10 contests.

[gambcom-standard rankid=”5″ ]

For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow @payton_shanks on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Additional MLB coverage:
BaseballHQ Fantasy Baseball
BaseballPress.com: Your source for every MLB lineup

[lawrence-newsletter]

[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1372]