Guardians Rays picks prediction spread over/under betting line

Cleveland Guardians at Tampa Bay Rays odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Sunday’s Cleveland Guardians at Tampa Bay Rays odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Cleveland Guardians (51-49) head to Tropicana Field Sunday for their 3-game series finale with the Tampa Bay Rays (54-47) at 1:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Guardians vs. Rays odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Tampa evened the series with a 6-4 win Saturday with the standout performances coming from Rays 2B Brandon Lowe and 3B Yandy Diaz, who both hit home runs and each had 2 RBIs.

Season series: Tied 1-1.

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Guardians at Rays projected starters

RHP Bryan Shaw vs. LHP Shane McClanahan

Shaw is 4-2 with a 5.45 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 4.2 BB/9 and 7.4 K/9 in 36 1/3 IP with 1 start and 39 relief appearances.

Last start: No-decision in Cleveland’s 8-3 win at the Boston Red Sox Tuesday with 2 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 1 BB and 2 K.
Tuesday was Shaw’s 1st career start in his 12 big league seasons.

McClanahan is 10-3 with a 1.76 ERA, 0.77 WHIP, 1.5 BB/9 and 11.8 K/9 in 117 2/3 IP over 19 starts.

Last start: No-decision in Tampa’s 5-3 loss at the Baltimore Orioles with 7 IP, 2 ER, 2 H, 2 HR, 1 BB and 7 K.
McClanahan leads MLB in ERA and WHIP and leads the AL in K/BB rate.

Guardians at Rays odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:18 a.m. ET.

Money line (ML): Guardians +190 (bet $100 to win $190) | Rays -240 (bet $240 to win $100)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Guardians +1.5 (-125) | Rays -1.5 (+102)
Over/Under (O/U): 6.5 (O: -120 | U: -105)

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Guardians at Rays picks and predictions

Prediction

Rays 4, Guardians 1

Money line

PASS.

The Rays (-240) are the right side with the favorite to win the AL Cy Young on the bump but Tampa’s ML is far too expensive. McClanahan has 13 consecutive quality starts and is 8-1 over that span with a 1.27 ERA.

But, we’d be getting the worst of the number because sharp action has steamed the Rays from a -180 opening favorite up to the current price, according to Pregame.com.

I’d entertain parlaying Tampa’s ML with another similarly priced line for a better payout since the Rays are 8-2 as home favorites of -150 or greater in McClanahan starts and a plus-20.3% return on investment (ROI).

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Run line/Against the spread

BET a HALF-UNIT on the RAYS -1.5 (+105) because they are 6-4 RL in the circumstances described above with a plus-29.8% ROI.

Furthermore, Cleveland’s lineup ranks 29th in wRC+ (77) and wOBA (.275) and 22nd in BB/K rate (0.36) vs. left-handed pitching, per FanGraphs.

However, I’m going lighter on Tampa’s RL here because the Rays are 15-25 RL as home favorites and the Guardians +1.5 (-125) is 22-14 RL as road underdogs.

Over/Under

BET a QUARTER-UNIT on the UNDER 6.5 (-105) only because this is a sharp total.

That said, Cleveland’s lineup cannot hit left-handed pitching. the Rays are 6-11-2 O/U in McClanahan starts and 3-7 O/U in McClanahan’s home starts as favorites of -150 or greater with a plus-34.1% ROI towards the Under. Also, Tropicana Field is a pitcher-friendly venue and ranks 23rd in park factor.

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Cleveland Guardians at Tampa Bay Rays odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s Cleveland Guardians at Tampa Bay Rays odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Tampa Bay Rays (53-46) host the Cleveland Guardians (50-48) Friday for the 1st game of a 3-game set at Tropicana Field. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Guardians vs. Rays odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Cleveland is 4-4 straight up (SU) following the All-Star Game with 2 straight 4-game series splits at the Chicago White Sox and at the Boston Red Sox.

Tampa is just 2-5 SU since the All-Star break, which includes back-to-back series losses at the Kansas City Royals and Baltimore Orioles.

Friday’s game is their 1st meeting of the season. The Rays won 6 of 7 from the Guardians in 2021.

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Guardians at Rays projected starters

RHP Shane Bieber vs. LHP Jeffrey Springs

Bieber is 4-6 with a 3.55 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 8.9 K/9 in 111 2/3 IP over 18 starts.

Last start: Lost 6-3 Sunday at the Chicago White Sox with 6 IP, 6 ER, 8 H, 3 HR, 1 BB and 4 K.
2022 road splits: 2-3 with a 3.52 ERA (69 IP, 27 ER), 1.22 WHIP, 9 HR and 9.3 K/9 in 11 starts.

Springs is 3-2 with a 2.50 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 9.5 K/9 in 68 1/3 IP across 12 starts and 8 relief appearances.

Last start: No-decision in Tampa’s 4-2 loss at the Kansas City Royals Sunday with 4 1/3 IP, 2 R (1 ER), 8 H, 0 BB and 2 K.
2022 home splits: 2-1 with a 3.11 ERA (37 2/3 IP, 13 ER), 1.20 WHIP, 5 HR and 9.6 K/9 in 7 starts and 3 bullpen outings.

Guardians at Rays odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:01 a.m. ET.

Money line (ML): Guardians -103 (bet $103 to win $100) | Rays -117 (bet $117 to win $100)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Guardians -1.5 (+170) | Rays +1.5 (-210)
Over/Under (O/U): 6.5 (O: -130 | U: +105)

Guardians at Rays picks and predictions

Prediction

Rays 4, Guardians 2

Money line

BET the RAYS (-117) before they get too expensive.

Tipico opened Tampa at -110 but it’s been steamed up to the current number despite the Guardians (-103) having a former Cy Young-winning ace on the hill and being in much better form.

But, Cleveland’s lineup struggles vs. left-handed pitching and Springs grades higher than Bieber in several advanced pitching metrics.

For instance, the Guardians are 29th in wRC+ (75) and wOBA (.273), 30th in ISO (.102) and 26th in hard-hit rate, per FanGraphs.

Also, Bieber and Springs have the same “expected ERA” but Springs has a much better chase rate, hard-hit rate and exit velocity than Bieber, according to Statcast.

BET the RAYS (-117).