The Tampa Bay Rays (53-46) host the Cleveland Guardians (50-48) Friday for the 1st game of a 3-game set at Tropicana Field. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Guardians vs. Rays odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Cleveland is 4-4 straight up (SU) following the All-Star Game with 2 straight 4-game series splits at the Chicago White Sox and at the Boston Red Sox.
Tampa is just 2-5 SU since the All-Star break, which includes back-to-back series losses at the Kansas City Royals and Baltimore Orioles.
Friday’s game is their 1st meeting of the season. The Rays won 6 of 7 from the Guardians in 2021.
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Guardians at Rays projected starters
RHP Shane Bieber vs. LHP Jeffrey Springs
Bieber is 4-6 with a 3.55 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 8.9 K/9 in 111 2/3 IP over 18 starts.
- Last start: Lost 6-3 Sunday at the Chicago White Sox with 6 IP, 6 ER, 8 H, 3 HR, 1 BB and 4 K.
- 2022 road splits: 2-3 with a 3.52 ERA (69 IP, 27 ER), 1.22 WHIP, 9 HR and 9.3 K/9 in 11 starts.
Springs is 3-2 with a 2.50 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 9.5 K/9 in 68 1/3 IP across 12 starts and 8 relief appearances.
- Last start: No-decision in Tampa’s 4-2 loss at the Kansas City Royals Sunday with 4 1/3 IP, 2 R (1 ER), 8 H, 0 BB and 2 K.
- 2022 home splits: 2-1 with a 3.11 ERA (37 2/3 IP, 13 ER), 1.20 WHIP, 5 HR and 9.6 K/9 in 7 starts and 3 bullpen outings.
Guardians at Rays odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:01 a.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Guardians -103 (bet $103 to win $100) | Rays -117 (bet $117 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Guardians -1.5 (+170) | Rays +1.5 (-210)
- Over/Under (O/U): 6.5 (O: -130 | U: +105)
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Guardians at Rays picks and predictions
Prediction
Rays 4, Guardians 2
Money line
BET the RAYS (-117) before they get too expensive.
Tipico opened Tampa at -110 but it’s been steamed up to the current number despite the Guardians (-103) having a former Cy Young-winning ace on the hill and being in much better form.
But, Cleveland’s lineup struggles vs. left-handed pitching and Springs grades higher than Bieber in several advanced pitching metrics.
For instance, the Guardians are 29th in wRC+ (75) and wOBA (.273), 30th in ISO (.102) and 26th in hard-hit rate, per FanGraphs.
Also, Bieber and Springs have the same “expected ERA” but Springs has a much better chase rate, hard-hit rate and exit velocity than Bieber, according to Statcast.
BET the RAYS (-117).
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Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
The Rays +1.5 (-210) is overpriced and their alternate line is a no-go because Tampa is 14-24 RL as home favorites and the Guardians -1.5 (+165) are 21-13 RL as road underdogs.
Over/Under
PASS with a “lean” to the Under 6.5 (+105) because the Rays are 3-8-1 O/U in Springs’ 12 starts.
But, this is a sharp number and the O/U trends are pointing in different directions so it’s hard to find value in betting the total.
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