Tag: Guardians Orioles odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

Cleveland Guardians at Baltimore Orioles odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Wednesday’s Cleveland Guardians at Baltimore Orioles odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Cleveland Guardians (51-26) and Baltimore Orioles (49-30) wrap up a 3-game series Wednesday. First pitch from Oriole Park at Camden Yards is scheduled for 6:35 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Guardians vs. Orioles odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Guardians lead 2-0

The Guardians won their 7th straight game Tuesday, winning a seesaw battle 10-8. Cleveland has won the 1st 2 games between these playoff hopefuls, and it looks for its 1st series road sweep since May 24-26 against the Los Angeles Angels.

The Orioles have dropped 5 consecutive outings. The good news from Tuesday’s 10-8 loss is that the offense picked up the pace after plating just 4 runs in the previous 3 outings. The Over is now 5-2 in the past 7 games, and 7-3-1 in the past 10 contests.

The underdog has cashed in 3 straight meetings in this series, while holding a 6-4 edge in the previous 10 battles. The Under also had a 6-4 edge in the past 10 in the series.

Guardians at Orioles projected starters

RHP Carlos Carrasco vs. RHP Grayson Rodriguez

Carrasco (3-6, 5.40 ERA) makes his 14th start. He has a 1.38 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 7.1 K/9 in 65 IP.

  • Last start: Win, 6 IP, 1 ER, 4 H (solo HR), 0 BB, 7 K in 7-1 home win vs. Toronto Blue Jays Friday
  • 2024 road splits: 1-3, 5.95 ERA (39 1/3 IP, 26 ER), 1.27 WHIP, .247 opponents’ batting average (OBA), 6 HR, 12 BB, 30 K in 8 starts
  • Career vs. Orioles: 4-2, 2.06 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 39 1/3 IP, 9 ER, 2 HR, 8.5 K/9 in 6 starts and 1 relief appearance

Rodriguez (8-3, 3.82 ERA) makes his 14th start. He has a 1.29 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9 and 10.2 K/9 in 75 1/3 IP.

  • Last start: Loss, 5 IP, 7 ER, 9 H (1 HR), 2 BB, 8 K in 14-11 road loss vs. Houston Astros Friday
  • 2024 home splits: 4-2, 5.35 ERA (38 2/3 IP, 23 ER), 1.47 WHIP, .277 OBA, 5 HR, 13 BB, 44 K in 7 starts

Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.

Guardians at Orioles odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:13 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Guardians +155 (bet $100 to win $155) | Orioles -190 (bet $190 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Guardians +1.5 (-120) | Orioles -1.5 (+100)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: +100 | U: -120)

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Guardians at Orioles picks and predictions

Prediction

Orioles 6, Guardians 4

Moneyline

The Orioles (-190) are a little too pricey for a team which has dropped 5 straight outings. It’s also especially risky since it is playing the Guardians (+155), the best AL team in terms of winning percentage.

If anything, it might be worth a roll of the dice on Cleveland, but Carrasco has had a tough season, and it’s not easy to trust him.

PASS.

Run line/Against the spread

The ORIOLES -1.5 (+100) are worth playing lightly on the run line at plus-money.

Again, Baltimore has dropped 5 straight games, but it has 22 victories dating back to May 17, and 21 of those wins have come by 2 or more runs. So, if you like the O’s to get the job done in the series finale, then you should like them to cash on the run line, too.

Over/Under

OVER 9.5 (+100) is the lean, so go with a half-unit at most here, too.

The Over is on a 7-3-1 run in the past 11 outings for the Orioles, with the pitching staff responsible for much of that. The O’s have conceded 51 across the past 7 games, or 7.3 RPG.

Cleveland has hit the Over at a 6-2-1 clip in the past 9 outings, including Tuesday’s 10-8 slugfest win in Charm City.

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Cleveland Guardians at Baltimore Orioles odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Tuesday’s Cleveland Guardians at Baltimore Orioles odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Cleveland Guardians (50-26) and Baltimore Orioles (49-29) play the middle contest of a 3-game series Tuesday. First pitch from Oriole Park at Camden Yards is scheduled for 6:35 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Guardians vs. Orioles odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Guardians lead 1-0

The Guardians picked up their 6th consecutive victory in the series opener, winning 3-2 on Monday. 3B Jose Ramirez broke the tie with a go-ahead solo HR in the top of the 6th inning. Cleveland (-108) cashed as the slight underdog while the Under (7.5) came through.

The Orioles dropped their 4th game in a row, and the offense has managed just 4 runs in the past 3 outings, or 1.33 runs per game (RPG). The Under has cashed in 2 of those 3 contests.

Despite the Under result Monday, the Over is still 6-3-2 in the past 11 games for the Orioles. Similarly, the total went low Monday, but the Over is still 5-2-1 in the past 8 outings for the Guardians.

Guardians at Orioles projected starters

LHP Logan Allen vs. LHP Cole Irvin

Allen (8-3, 5.23 ERA) makes his 16th start. He has a 1.48 WHIP, 3.6 BB/9 and 7.0 K/9 in 75 2/3 IP.

  • Last start: Win, 6 IP, 3 ER, 4 H, 4 BB, 2 K in 6-3 home win vs. Seattle Mariners Thursday
  • 2024 road splits: 5-3, 4.27 ERA (46 1/3 IP, 22 ER), 1.40 WHIP, .270 opponents’ batting average, 8 HR, 17 BB, 36 K in 9 starts

Irvin (6-3, 3.45 ERA) makes his 13th start and 15th appearance. He has a 1.25 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 6.5 K/9 in 73 IP.

  • Last start: No-decision, 4 2/3 IP, 5 ER, 5 H (2 HR), 2 BB, 2 K in 17-5 road win vs. New York Yankees Thursday
  • 2024 road splits: 3-2, 2.83 ERA (41 1/3 IP, 13 ER), 1.26 WHIP, .270 OBA, 3 HR, 8 BB, 33 K in 7 starts and 1 relief appearance

Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.

Guardians at Orioles odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 5:59 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Guardians +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Orioles -150 (bet $150 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Guardians +1.5 (-155) | Orioles -1.5 (+125)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: +100 | U: -120)

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Guardians at Orioles picks and predictions

Prediction

Orioles 4, Guardians 3

Moneyline

The ORIOLES (-150) are a decent moderate favorite at home Tuesday, as they look for the bounce-back game after falling to the Guardians (+125) in the low-scoring opener.

There is plenty of risk here, as Baltimore is just 2-3 in the past 5 home games, and it has dropped 4 in a row. However, the last time it won, Swervin’ Cole Irvin was on the hill, and the O’s are 9-2 in Irvin’s previous 11 outings.

Run line/Against the spread

The GUARDIANS +1.5 (-145) aren’t a bad play on the run line, if you’re a little on the conservative side, but you cannot bring yourself to back Cleveland straight up.

Cleveland has won 6 in a row, and it is 3-0 on the run line as an underdog, while going 4-1 in the past 5, winning 3 times outright. It is also 10-2 in the past 12 games on the run line as a ‘dog.

Over/Under

UNDER 9.5 (-120) is worth a look. The Under is 2-1-1 in the past 4 games for the Guardians, and Cleveland pitching has allowed just 14 total runs during the 6-game win streak, or 2.3 RPG.

For the O’s, they’ve plated just 4 runs in the past 3 games, a total power outage after racking up 28 total runs of offense in consecutive games June 20-21.

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Cleveland Guardians at Baltimore Orioles odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Monday’s Cleveland Guardians at Baltimore Orioles odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Cleveland Guardians (49-26) and Baltimore Orioles (49-28) begin a 3-game series Monday. First pitch from Oriole Park at Camden Yards is scheduled for 6:35 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Guardians vs. Orioles odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: First meeting; Guardians won 4-3 last year

The Guardians completed a 3-game sweep of the Toronto Blue Jays Sunday, winning 6-5. Cleveland has won 5 straight outings, outscoring opponents 33-12 in the span. The Over is on a 4-1-1 run in the previous 6 outings.

With Cleveland’s win Sunday, it has a winning percentage of .653, slightly ahead of the New York Yankees (.650) for the best mark in the American League.

The Orioles were swept in 3 games on the road against the Houston Astros, getting outscored 27-13, and that was with 11 runs scored in Friday’s series opener loss. The Over is 6-2-2 in the past 10 games for Baltimore.

Guardians at Orioles projected starters

RHP Tanner Bibee vs. LHP Cade Povich

Bibee (5-2, 3.65 ERA) makes his 16th start. He has a 1.13 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 10.9 K/9 in 81 1/3 IP.

  • Last start: Win, 6 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 1 BB, 12 K in 8-0 home victory vs. Seattle Mariners Wednesday
  • 2024 road splits: 2-1, 2.84 ERA (38 IP, 12 ER), 1.11 WHIP, .218 opponents’ batting average, 5 HR, 11 BB, 46 K in 7 starts

Povich (0-1, 3.94 ERA) makes his 4th start. He has a 1.25 WHIP, 5.1 BB/9 and 5.1 K/9 in 16 IP.

  • Last start: No-decision, 4 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 1 H, 5 BB, 1 K in 7-6 road win in 10 innings vs. Yankees Wednesday
  • Career home splits (1 start): No-decision, 6 IP, 0 ER, 5 H, 0 BB, 6 K in 4-2 home win vs. Atlanta Braves June 12

Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.

Guardians at Orioles odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Sunday at 11:55 p.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Guardians -105 (bet $105 to win $100) | Orioles -115 (bet $115 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Guardians -1.5 (+155) | Orioles +1.5 (-190)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

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Guardians at Orioles picks and predictions

Prediction

Guardians 5, Orioles 4

Moneyline

The GUARDIANS (-105) are worth a look as short ‘dogs in this clash of potential American League playoff teams.

Bibee has emerged as a solid option in the Cleveland rotation, and he tends to do his best work on the road.

While Povich has done a decent job against the Braves and Yankees in his fledgling career, it’s a tough matchup against a red-hot Guards offense.

Run line/Against the spread

The Orioles +1.5 (-190) will cost you nearly 2 times your potential return, if you can’t bring yourself to back Baltimore straight up and need a little bit of insurance.

If you like the O’s, just bet them straight up.

AVOID.

Over/Under

OVER 8.5 (-105) is the lean, but only roll with a half-unit play at most.

The Over is on a 6-2-1 run in the past 9 games for the Orioles, including 2-0-1 in the past 3 appearances at home.

The Guardians split the total 1-1-1 in the 3-game sweep of the Blue Jays this past weekend, but the Over is on a 5-1-1 run in the previous 7 outings dating back to June 16.

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Cleveland Guardians at Baltimore Orioles odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Tuesday’s Cleveland Guardians at Baltimore Orioles odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Cleveland Guardians (24-29) will play the 2nd game of a 3-game series against the Baltimore Orioles (34-20) on Tuesday at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Guardians vs. Orioles odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Guardians lead 1-0

The Guardians shut out the Orioles 5-0 on Monday with rookie LHP Logan Allen striking out 10 batters in 7 innings. Cleveland has won 3 of its last 4 games and is 3.5 games behind the Minnesota Twins for the AL Central lead.

In Monday’s lopsided loss to the Guardians, the Orioles totaled 5 hits as a team and OF Anthony Santander had 3 of them. Baltimore has gone 6-4 in its last 10 contests and is 4 games back of the Tampa Bay Rays for 1st place in the AL East.

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Guardians at Orioles projected starters

RHP Cal Quantrill vs. RHP Kyle Gibson

Quantrill (2-3, 4.75 ERA) makes his 11th start. He has a 1.35 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 5.1 K/9 in 55 innings.

  • Has allowed 3-plus ER in 7 of his 10 starts, including each of his last
  • Has recorded more than 4 K’s just once in 10 starts

Gibson (6-3, 3.82 ERA) makes his 12th start. He has a 1.30 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9 and 6.0 K/9 in 66 innings.

  • Has posted a quality start (6 IP and 3 or fewer ER) in 6 of his 11 starts
  • Owns a 3-10 record with a 5.59 ERA, 1.66 WHIP, and 6.2 K/9 in 21 career appearances (20 starts) against the Guardians

Guardians at Orioles odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:14 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Guardians +130 (bet $100 to win $130) | Orioles -155 (bet $155 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Guardians +1.5 (-160) | Orioles -1.5 (+135)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Guardians at Orioles picks and predictions

Prediction

Orioles 5, Guardians 3

Moneyline

With Gibson having a renaissance of sorts to begin the season, the ORIOLES (-155) are the pick. The Orioles are 16-11 at home while the  Guardians are 12-14 on the road.

Run line/Against the spread

ORIOLES -1.5 (+135) has solid value with Quantrill taking the bump for the Guardians. Quantrill isn’t missing bats with a minuscule 12.4% strikeout rate and the Orioles potentially have 5 players in their lineup who have a barrel rate of 7% or higher.

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Over/Under

UNDER 8.5 (-110)

The Under has hit in 5 straight meetings between the teams and the Under is 34-16-1 in the last 51 meetings overall.

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Cleveland Guardians at Baltimore Orioles odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Monday’s Cleveland Guardians at Baltimore Orioles odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Cleveland Guardians (23-29) and Baltimore Orioles (34-19) open up a 3-game series in Charm City on Monday. First pitch from Oriole Park at Camden Yards is slated for 1:05 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Guardians vs. Orioles odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: First meeting; teams went 3-3 in 2022 with each team scoring 18 total runs in the 6 games

The Guardians wrapped up a 3-game home series against the St. Louis Cardinals with a 4-3 win Sunday. Cleveland finished 3-3 on its 6-game homestand and start a 7-game stretch on the road. The Guardians have lost 9 of their last 12 road games.

After 2 losses to the Texas Rangers, the Orioles got their 1st win of a 6-game homestand 3-2 on Sunday as LF Austin Hays singled in the go-ahead run in the bottom of the 8th inning. The Orioles, who are averaging over 5 runs per game on the season, have produced just 3 runs or less in 4 of their last 5 games.

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Guardians at Orioles projected starters

LHP Logan Allen vs. RHP Tyler Wells

Allen (1-2, 3.31 ERA) makes his 7th start. He has a 1.43 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 9.1 K/9 in 32 2/3 innings.

  • Last start: Loss, 6 IP, 3 ER, 7 H, 1 BB, 4 K in a 4-2 home loss against the Chicago White Sox Tuesday
  • 1st career start vs. Orioles
  • Lefties are hitting .292 with a .954 OPS vs. Allen this season

Wells (3-1, 3.47 ERA) makes his 10th start. He has a 0.84 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 8.5 K/9 in 57 innings.

  • Last start: No-decision, 5 IP, 5 ER, 5 H, 2 BB, 8 K in a 9-6 road victory at the New York Yankees Wednesday
  • Only start vs Guardians: No-decision, 4 IP, 2 ER, 2 H, 2 BB, 1 K in 5-4 Baltimore’s home win June 4, 2022
  • Has allowed 3 or more ER in each of his last 2 starts

Guardians at Orioles odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:23 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Guardians +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Orioles -150 (bet $150 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Guardians +1.5 (-165) | Orioles -1.5 (+135)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -115 | U: -105)

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Guardians at Orioles picks and predictions

Prediction

Orioles 8, Guardians 4

Moneyline

You can bet the ORIOLES (-150), but I’m more interested in the run line. The Orioles are batting .260 with a .785 OPS against lefties this season.

PASS.

Run line/Against the spread

I love getting plus money on the ORIOLES -1.5 (+135), especially playing in Baltimore. This is why I would not put anything down on the moneyline and save it for this bet. The O’s have covered the spread in 8 of their last 10 wins.

Plus, I’d save some money for the over on the run total as well.

BET ORIOLES -1.5 (+135).

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Over/Under

While the Guardians have struggled to score this season, they do average over 4 runs per game away from home. The Orioles average more than 5 runs per game on the season.

Allen has allowed at least 7 hits in each of his last 4 starts. We’ve also seen Wells give up 8 total ER over his last 2 starts.

These are the back of rotation arms, so I’d expect lots of runs. BET OVER 8 (-115).

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Cleveland Guardians at Baltimore Orioles odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s Cleveland Guardians at Baltimore Orioles odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Baltimore Orioles (22-32) host the Cleveland Guardians (23-24) Saturday at Oriole Park at Camden Yards for the 2nd game of a 3-game set. First pitch is scheduled for 4:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Guardians vs. Orioles odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Cleveland beat Baltimore in the series opener 6-3 Friday as the Guardians 3-through 5-batters (3B Jose Ramirez, 2B Owen Miller and 1B Josh Naylor) combined to hit 7-for-14 with 3 doubles and 6 RBIs. Friday’s Guardians-Orioles meeting was their 1st meeting of the year.

Guardians at Orioles projected starters

RHP Triston McKenzie vs. RHP Tyler Wells

McKenzie is 3-4 with a 2.65 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 7.9 K/9 in 51 IP over 8 starts and 1 relief appearance.

  • Last start: Loss, 2-1, Sunday at the Detroit Tigers with 7 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 2 HR, 1 BB and 8 K.

Wells is 2-4 with a 3.71 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 1.4 BB/9 and 5.8 K/9 in 43 2/3 IP over 10 starts.

  • Last start: Win, 10-0, Monday at the Boston Red Sox with 6-scoreless IP, 2 H, 1 BB and 3 K.
  • 2022 home splits: 1-0 with a 2.29 ERA (19 2/3 IP, 5 ER), 14 H, 1 HR, 4 BB and 14 K across 4 starts.

Guardians at Orioles odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:18 a.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Guardians -120 (bet $120 to win $100) | Orioles +100 (bet $100 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Guardians -1.5 (+135) | Orioles +1.5 (-170)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -125 | U: +100)

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Guardians at Orioles picks and predictions

Prediction

Orioles 4, Guardians 3

Money line

BET ORIOLES (+100) because there’s a “Pros vs. Joe’s” scenario in the betting market with the presumed sharp money backing Baltimore, Wells has been more effective at home and McKenzie struggles on 5 days of rest.

A slight majority of the money is on the Orioles whereas nearly 70% of the bets placed are on the Guardians according to pregame.com at the time of writing. It’s typically wise to follow the money when it’s counter to the public since professional bettors put up more cash than your average Joe.

Five days off is by far McKenzie’s worst rest-based pitching split. McKenzie is 3-8 when pitching on five days’ rest with a 5.73 ERA (4.10 career ERA) and 1.27 WHIP (1.06 career WHIP) over 16 starts.

Wells pitches well at home (stats written above) and grades higher than McKenzie in several advanced pitching metrics including hard-hit rate, exit velocity, barrel rate, chase rate, expected ERA and BB%, per Statcast.

BET ORIOLES (+100).

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Run line/Against the spread

PASS because I’m not confident enough in Baltimore to lay it with the Orioles +1.5 (-170) since the Guardians are 6-3 RL as road favorites, which includes their 6-3 win in the series opener Friday.

Over/Under

LEAN UNDER 7.5 (+100) because we also have a “Pros vs. Joe’s” situation in the betting market for the total of Guardians-Orioles.

Around 85% of the cash is on the Under while roughly the same percentage of bets are on the Over but the oddsmakers have lowered the total from an 8.5-run opener, which suggests the Under is the sharp play.

Each bullpen is also top-10 in both ERA and FIP (per FanGraphs) and these teams have a combined 5-12 O/U record when these starters take the mound.

However, it’s only a LEAN to the UNDER 7.5 (+100) because we are getting the worst of the number and the Over has cashed in 4 consecutive Guardians-Orioles meetings.

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Cleveland Guardians at Baltimore Orioles odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s Cleveland Guardians at Baltimore Orioles odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Cleveland Guardians (22-24) head to Oriole Park at Camden Yards Friday to start a 3-game set with the Baltimore Orioles (22-31). First pitch is scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Guardians vs. Orioles odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Cleveland completed a 3-game sweep at home vs. the Kansas City Royals Monday-Wednesday but the Guardians are just 5-5 straight up (SU) over their last 10 games.

Baltimore lost the rubber match of a 3-game set at the Seattle Mariners Thursday 7-6 in extra innings and the Orioles are 4-6 SU in their last 10 contests.

The Guardians beat the Orioles in last year’s season series 5-2 and Cleveland had a plus-5 run differential in those meetings.

Guardians at Orioles projected starters

RHP Shane Bieber vs. LHP Bruce Zimmermann

Bieber is 2-3 with a 3.19 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 8.6 K/9 in 53 2/3 IP over 9 starts.

  • Last start: Win, 8-1, Saturday at the Detroit Tigers with 8 IP, 1 ER, 8 H, 0 BB and 5 K.
  • 2022 road splits: 1-1 with a 2.17 ERA (37 1/3 IP, 9 ER), 1.13 WHIP and 3.8 K/BB rate in 6 starts.

Zimmermann is 2-3 with a 4.53 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 7.1 K/9 in 51 2/3 IP across 10 starts.

  • Last start: Loss, 12-2, Sunday at the Boston Red Sox with 4 IP, 6 ER, 8 H, 5 HR, 1 BB and 2 K.
  • 2022 home splits: 1-0 with a 3.24 ERA (25 IP, 9 ER), 1.20 WHIP and 3.0 K/BB rate in 5 starts.

Guardians at Orioles odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:28 a.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Guardians -155 (bet $155 to win $100) | Orioles +125 (bet $100 to win $125)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Guardians -1.5 (+110) | Orioles +1.5 (-135)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -130 | U: +105)

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Guardians at Orioles picks and predictions

Prediction

Orioles 4, Guardians 2

Money line

LEAN ORIOLES (+125) because the Guardians are going for a suspiciously low price with Bieber on the bump who’s the 2022 American League Cy Young winner vs. a Baltimore team sitting at the bottom of the AL East.

However, Cleveland has lost 5 consecutive Bieber starts vs. AL East teams and he’s struggled to regain his 2020 Cy Young form after spending most of 2021 on the IL. Bieber ranks in the 41st percentile or worse in hard-hit rate, exit velocity, barrel rate and fastball velocity, according to Statcast.

It’s only a LEAN to the ORIOLES (+125) because the Guardians are 6-2 SU as road favorites and the Under is my favorite bet in this game.

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Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

The Orioles +1.5 (-135) is a no-go even though Baltimore is 16-7 RL as a home underdog because the Guardians are 5-3 RL as road favorites and, again, the Under feels like a sharp play.

Over/Under

BET 0.75 units on the UNDER 7.5 (+105) only because we are getting to the party a little late on the total, which has been lowered from an 8.5-run opener, according to Pregame.com.

Baltimore’s lineup ranks 24th in WAR (3.6), 22nd in wRC+ (93), 25th in wOBA (.297) and 26th in BB/K rate (0.32), per FanGraphs. Cleveland’s lineup struggles vs. left-handed pitching: 27th in both wRC+ (87) and wOBA (.286) and 25th in home runs (9).

Zimmermann’s advanced pitching numbers are nothing to write home about but he’s been very solid at home. He has allowed 11 fewer home runs (12-1) at home and Zimmermann’s ERA is 2.50 lower than his road mark (5.74). Also, Cleveland’s bullpen is 4th (3.15) in ERA and Baltimore’s ‘pen is 5th (3.19).

BET UNDER 7.5 (+105).

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