Guardians at Mariners odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

The Cleveland Guardians (66-56) and Seattle Mariners (68-57) continue a 4-game series at T-Mobile Park. Friday’s contest is slated for 10:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Guardians vs. Mariners odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Mariners lead 1-0; Seattle took 4 of 7 from Cleveland in 2021

The Guardians were bested 3-1 in Thursday’s series lid-lifter. Despite the loss, the result marked the 5th straight game Cleveland has held opponents under 4 runs. Guardians pitching has posted a 2.07 ERA, 0.93 WHIP since Aug. 6.

Seattle pitching has also been strong of late, and that’s especially the case at home. The Mariners are 18-8 over their last 26 games at home. Over that span, Seattle has registered a 2.99 ERA and 1.05 WHIP.

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Guardians at Mariners projected starters

RHP Shane Bieber vs. RHP Logan Gilbert

Bieber (8-7, 3.10 ERA) makes his 24th start. He has a 1.10 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 8.9 K/9 in 145 IP.

Owns a 1.62 ERA, 0.96 WHIP over his last 5 starts; has walked just 1.6 batters per 9 over that stretch
Has held current Seattle batters to an aggregate .642 OPS

Gilbert (10-5, 3.52 ERA) has authored a 1.24 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 8.2 K/9 through 143 1/3 IP in 25 starts.

Has scuffled since a hot start this season (2.28 ERA through June 19) with a 5.22 ERA, 1.52 WHIP in his last 60 1/3 IP
Has been sharp against lefty bats (.606 OPS allowed), which figures as a key against a left-leaning Cleveland lineup

Guardians at Mariners odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:31 p.m. ET.

Money line: Guardians -115 (bet $115 to win $100) | Mariners +105 (bet $100 to win $105)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Guardians -1.5 (+145) | Mariners +1.5 (-190)
Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -122 | U: -102)

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Guardians at Mariners picks and predictions

Prediction

Guardians 4, Mariners 2

Money line

Bieber on a roll has the Guardians being a value here. And Cleveland’s bullpen is in much better shape heading into this game.

TAKE CLEVELAND (-115). Go in with a full unit at -120 or better.

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Run line/Against the spread

The extra juice here washes out any leverage: PASS.

Over/Under

These are similar clubs on similar runs with really strong pitching. TAKE THE UNDER 7.5 (-102). This price leaping to -120 would not be a surprise.

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The Cleveland Guardians (66-56) and Seattle Mariners (67-57) open a 4-game series at T-Mobile Park. Thursday’s afternoon opener is slated for 4:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Guardians vs. Mariners odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: first meeting. Seattle took 4-of-7 games from Cleveland in 2021.

The Guardians arrive in Seattle off a pair of wins in as many tries at San Diego. Cleveland pitching held the Padres to just 1 run in that series, and the Guardians have logged a 2.00 ERA, 0.92 WHIP since Aug. 6.

The Mariners went 11-5 over a 16-game stretch from Aug. 2-19. But Seattle is just 1-3 – with a flimsy .670 OPS – in 4 games since. The Mariners have, however, pitched their way to a 17-8 mark over their last 25 games at home. Over that span, Seattle has registered a 3.40 ERA.

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Guardians at Mariners projected starters

RHP Triston McKenzie vs. LHP Marco Gonzales

McKenzie (9-9, 3.11 ERA) has logged a 0.96 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 8.8 K/9 through 141 2/3 IP across 23 games (22 starts).

Has faced the Mariners just twice: allowed a combined 6 runs in 5 IP in 2 starts last season
Owns a 2.42 ERA over his last 7 starts
Had a career-high 14 K’s against the White Sox in his last outing

Gonzales (8-12, 4.08 ERA) is making his 25th start. He has a 1.41 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 5.0 K/9 through 134 2/3 IP.

Has yielded 56 hits over his last 40 1/3 IP, and that has fed into a bloated 6.02 ERA over that spell
Owns a 3.63 ERA at home
Owns a BABIP-muddled 5.34 ERA over the last month: has allowed a .340 BABIP over that stretch

Guardians at Mariners odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:50 a.m. ET.

Money line: Guardians -125 (bet $125 to win $100) | Mariners +102 (bet $100 to win $102)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Guardians -1.5 (+135) | Mariners +1.5 (-170)
Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)

Guardians at Mariners picks and predictions

Prediction

Guardians 5, Mariners 4

Money line

PASS: look for some against-the-current value on the Mariners Run Line.

Run line/Against the spread

McKenzie — good as he has been — is making a start off back-to-back triple-digit pitch counts (101 in each of his last 2 starts) for the first time in his career. He does so on an extra day of rest (5 days in this case), but he has performed better on 4-day rest this season and over his 3-year career.

The Under 7.5 has been hit with some early money. Cleveland struggles mightily against southpaws (.643 OPS), and SEATTLE +1.5 (-170) is worth a partial-unit play. Go more in on a -165 tag and all the way in at -160.