The Cleveland Guardians (66-56) and Seattle Mariners (67-57) open a 4-game series at T-Mobile Park. Thursday’s afternoon opener is slated for 4:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Guardians vs. Mariners odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Season series: first meeting. Seattle took 4-of-7 games from Cleveland in 2021.
The Guardians arrive in Seattle off a pair of wins in as many tries at San Diego. Cleveland pitching held the Padres to just 1 run in that series, and the Guardians have logged a 2.00 ERA, 0.92 WHIP since Aug. 6.
The Mariners went 11-5 over a 16-game stretch from Aug. 2-19. But Seattle is just 1-3 – with a flimsy .670 OPS – in 4 games since. The Mariners have, however, pitched their way to a 17-8 mark over their last 25 games at home. Over that span, Seattle has registered a 3.40 ERA.
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Guardians at Mariners projected starters
RHP Triston McKenzie vs. LHP Marco Gonzales
McKenzie (9-9, 3.11 ERA) has logged a 0.96 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 8.8 K/9 through 141 2/3 IP across 23 games (22 starts).
- Has faced the Mariners just twice: allowed a combined 6 runs in 5 IP in 2 starts last season
- Owns a 2.42 ERA over his last 7 starts
- Had a career-high 14 K’s against the White Sox in his last outing
Gonzales (8-12, 4.08 ERA) is making his 25th start. He has a 1.41 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 5.0 K/9 through 134 2/3 IP.
- Has yielded 56 hits over his last 40 1/3 IP, and that has fed into a bloated 6.02 ERA over that spell
- Owns a 3.63 ERA at home
- Owns a BABIP-muddled 5.34 ERA over the last month: has allowed a .340 BABIP over that stretch
Guardians at Mariners odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:50 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Guardians -125 (bet $125 to win $100) | Mariners +102 (bet $100 to win $102)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Guardians -1.5 (+135) | Mariners +1.5 (-170)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)
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Guardians at Mariners picks and predictions
Prediction
Guardians 5, Mariners 4
Money line
PASS: look for some against-the-current value on the Mariners Run Line.
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Run line/Against the spread
McKenzie — good as he has been — is making a start off back-to-back triple-digit pitch counts (101 in each of his last 2 starts) for the first time in his career. He does so on an extra day of rest (5 days in this case), but he has performed better on 4-day rest this season and over his 3-year career.
The Under 7.5 has been hit with some early money. Cleveland struggles mightily against southpaws (.643 OPS), and SEATTLE +1.5 (-170) is worth a partial-unit play. Go more in on a -165 tag and all the way in at -160.
Over/Under
The prices here are close to equilibrium, and there aren’t enough Over mechanics at play to make for any sort of value. In other words, a slight Over lean gets rewarded on 7.5 (+110) or something. But that’s not where this one sits.
STEER CLEAR.
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