After two dominant and near-perfect performances to start the season, redshirt freshman quarterback Graham Mertz has struggled mightily to maintain a rhythm as the season has progressed.
First, there was his 56 percent completion, 230-yard, 1-touchdown, 4-turnover game against Northwestern when he and the Badger offense were only able to muster 7 points.
Then, yesterday against Indiana, Mertz finished the contest with 202 yards, 0 touchdowns and 1 interception and the offense scored only six points.
Today I went through the film of Saturday’s game and analyzed Mertz’s performance, looking at areas of his game that he must improve upon as he moves forward in his college career (the entire film analysis of the game is available on my Twitter @Benzkenney).
Related: Studs and duds from Wisconsin’s loss to Indiana
The redshirt freshman got off to a really rocky start in the first quarter, throwing for 33 yards while the offense gained just 3.9 yards-per-attempt.
Part of that was his footwork and timing, missing a potential 14-yard gain by throwing off balance and not taking the time he had to set his feet and deliver an accurate football.
UW 2nd drive:
-Mertz rolls left but Dietzen gets beat inside
-Had Dike and Pryor crossing (Dike deep, Pryor short) but threw between them
-Pressure was getting home, but Mertz still had time to plant and deliver an accurate passMiss #1 by the QB pic.twitter.com/91gz1iteDZ
— Ben Kenney (@benzkenney) December 7, 2020
Though the pass protection did break down on the play, the quarterback still had an opportunity to get his legs into the pass. The ball fell incomplete and it became his first miss of the day.
The second miss came on the same drive and highlights one of the biggest flaws in the quarterback’s performance yesterday: locking on to tight end Jake Ferguson and failing to see the field.
The following 3rd-and-3:
-Protection holds
-Pass to Ferguson is a bit high but a play could've been made
-Kendric Pryor was running free 14yds deep (in Mertz's eyeline)
-Mertz locked on FergusonMissed opportunity #2 by the QB pic.twitter.com/FJl2xfXBHc
— Ben Kenney (@benzkenney) December 7, 2020
As you can see the catch could’ve been made by Ferguson even though the pass was a bit high. But Mertz had a wide-open Kendric Pryor 15-yards down the field and even had him running in the same line of sight as Ferguson.
Mertz locked on to Ferguson, the play wasn’t made, and it was miss No. 2 by the quarterback.
We now move to his fumble, one of the pivotal moments in the contest.
The fumble:
-Looks like Groshek went into pass pro on the wrong side or RT missed the assignment…Left side was matched up, right side had the free rusherStill, Mullen came from the strong side…Mertz could've tossed him a glance before locking on to Dike who ran open pic.twitter.com/fVupwm5PGW
— Ben Kenney (@benzkenney) December 7, 2020
Running back Garrett Groshek lines up to pass protect on the wrong side of the quarterback and misses his assignment of Indiana cornerback Tiawan Mullen blitzing from Mertz’s strong side. Even though Mertz received no help from his running back or right tackle, however, he should’ve tossed Mullen a glance before locking on to freshman wide receiver Chimere Dike who was breaking open outside the numbers.
It’s the awareness of understanding where the blitzes are coming from, the failed blocking assignments that allowed Mullen to run free, Mertz’s problem of locking on to a receiver and his ball security when the rush does get home that all happened at the same time.
The result? Another Wisconsin turnover.
Mertz’s poor play wasn’t all from the first few drives, as later in the game we saw the same problems arise when the Badgers were driving and trying to battle back and even the score.
Enter the quarterback’s second turnover of the night and his sixth in just two games.
Mertz's INT:
-Great protection, sees Dike finding a hole in the zone past the sticks
-Dike didn't turn to the ball until it was too late (lacking the awareness of where he was breaking to)
-The throw, though, was a second lateThis was equally on Dike and Mertz pic.twitter.com/4Fqd6Rb2OY
— Ben Kenney (@benzkenney) December 7, 2020
Turnovers were arguably the most critical key to a Badger victory, with Mertz struggling to take care of the football against Northwestern and Indiana entering the contest with a conference-high 18 takeaways.
This play, though it looks like Dike simply flailed at the pass, was actually yet another key mistake.
It was 3rd-and-12 and, as you can see above, Dike was breaking into an open area in the zone. The pass blocking, as it was all night, was tremendous and Mertz simply delivered the ball a second late, allowing Indiana safety Jamar Johnson to break on the ball and intercept the pass.
Dike probably should’ve turned a second earlier and given the pass a chance, but if that ball is thrown 1.5 seconds earlier it’s a 15-yard completion.
It was a missed opportunity at a conversion paired with a poor throw and a turnover, plays we did not see the quarterback make against Illinois or Michigan.
We now move to the final seconds of the third quarter when the Badgers had a 3rd-and-4 on the Indiana 10 yard-line.
Also had Dunn at the sticks with separation. Just wasn't a high-percentage pass in a pivotal situation…
Here's the play: pic.twitter.com/U6hNaQQrzZ
— Ben Kenney (@benzkenney) December 7, 2020
Mertz, like he did earlier in the game, forced a ball into double coverage to Kendric Pryor–locking on to him as the guy he would definitely deliver the ball to.
The pass could’ve been thrown further to the inside in order to give Pryor a chance, but wide receiver Jack Dunn also had space at the sticks and could’ve converted a first down.
This was another miss by Mertz and a failed red-zone opportunity for the Badger offense–red zone opportunities which ended up seeing them convert 0/3 of their trips for touchdowns while Indiana converted both of their two.
Along with turnovers, that red zone efficiency is what lost them the football game.
The final play of interest came on Wisconsin’s final drive of the game when they drove into the Indiana red zone and tried to erase the 8-point deficit.
I’m not talking about the last play of the game when Mertz’s pass to Dike got broken up by the Indiana corner, but instead the 3rd-and-10 attempt that directly preceded it.
I'm finishing by looking at the 2 final plays by the #Badger offense.
3-10:
-Mertz forces it to Ferguson, had AJ Abbott wide open breaking back to him with 5yds of separation (in his sightline)…Mertz locking onto a receiver and forcing passes was the case for much of the night pic.twitter.com/GqdOsTLuVn— Ben Kenney (@benzkenney) December 7, 2020
Yet again the freshman quarterback locks onto Jake Ferguson and tries to force a ball his way. And just like earlier in the game, there was a receiver in his same line of sight that had 6+ yards of separation and could’ve converted the first down.
In my opinion, this was the play on the final drive, not the 4th down pass, that was the missed opportunity. Scoring eight and evening the game in that spot was a tall task, but the play was there to be made and was staring Mertz right in the face.
There were some bright spots from the quarterback’s film, two of which are highlighted below. But there was more bad than there was good, and his overall performance played a big role in the Badgers losing the football game.
2 plays later:
-Wonderful job by Mertz progressing through his reads and finding Dike in a soft spot in the zone
-Pass protection continues to be great pic.twitter.com/VWYvvg3MwO— Ben Kenney (@benzkenney) December 7, 2020
So what can we take away moving forward?
First, Mertz is only a freshman and has a lot of time to grow. In all honesty, him seeing this game action and making these mistakes will be good for his development as his career progresses.
But second, he is not a perfect quarterback as many saw him after two weeks. There are flaws to be worked out as this season comes to a close and his career progresses as the starter for the Wisconsin Badgers.
Footwork, timing and going through his progressions should be what the coaching staff focuses on when developing him as a passer
Indiana Recap:
