The 5-seed Creighton Bluejays (22-8) take on 1-seed Gonzaga Bulldogs (28-0) in a West Regional Sweet 16 game Sunday afternoon at Hinkle Fieldhouse in Indianapolis. Tip-off is scheduled for 2:10 p.m. ET and the game will broadcast on CBS. Below, we analyze the Creighton-Gonzaga odds and lines, with March Madness NCAA Tournament picks and predictions.
Gonzaga trampled its first two NCAA Tournament opponents — 16-seed Norfolk State and 8-seed Oklahoma — by an average score of 92.5-63 but is 1-1 ATS in those games and only covered by a half-point against the Sooners.
This is the third straight Big Dance the Bulldogs have at least advanced to the Sweet 16 and fifth in the past six NCAA Tournaments.
Creighton bounced back from a 25-point blowout by Georgetown in the Big East Tournament championship and eking past 12-seed UC Santa Barbara 63-62 to demolish 13-seed Ohio 72-58 as 5.5-point favorites.
The Bluejays are making their first Sweet 16 appearance in head coach Greg McDermott’s 11 seasons on the job.
Gonzaga vs. Creighton: Odds, spread and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 2:15 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Gonzaga -1100 (bet $1,100 to win $100) | Creighton +650 (bet $100 to win $650)
- Against the spread/ATS: Gonzaga -13 (-110) | Creighton +13 (-110)
- Over/Under: 158 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Gonzaga vs. Creighton: Odds, lines, predictions and picks
Prediction
Gonzaga 88, Creighton 81
Money line (ML)
PASS with a slight LEAN toward Creighton (+650) because as unlikely as it is that the Bluejays upset the Bulldogs, I do like Creighton plus the points and +650 is juicy.
But, instead of sprinkling on the underdog’s money line, I’ll use it on the total.
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Against the spread (ATS)
It’s hard to poke holes in an undefeated team’s resume but Gonzaga -13.5 (-110) is just too many points to lay in the Sweet 16 and the Bulldogs are just 3-3 ATS in their previous six games.
In Gonzaga’s win over Oklahoma last round, the Bulldogs actually shot worse from the field but attempted 14 more free throws and Creighton is 48th in defensive FTA/FG rate.
And while Creighton will struggle to find an answer for Gonzaga’s big Drew Timme and he’ll most likely be the difference-maker in this game, the Bluejays matchup really well against Bulldogs’ other superstars.
Creighton leading scorer and PG Marcus Zegarowski has a higher offensive rating, assist rate and effective field goal percentage than Gonzaga PG Jalen Suggs.
Also, Gonzaga senior SF Corey Kispert will have his hands full against Creighton’s defensive wing Christian Bishop.
Finally, who isn’t laying the points with Gonzaga here?
According to Pregame.com, nearly 80% of the action is on the Bulldogs to cover but the line has dropped from Gonzaga -13.5 on the opener. Simply put, 80% of sports bettors don’t turn a profit.
Fade the market and BET CREIGHTON +13 (-110) for 1 unit.
Over/Under (O/U)
Gonzaga is hands down the best offensive team in the nation but Creighton will keep up with ‘Zaga Sunday.
The Bulldogs scheduled four ranked out of conference opponents at the beginning of their season and the Over cashed in all four of those contests.
Both teams play at a very fast pace and are top-30 in effective field goal shooting.
TAKE OVER 158 (-110) for a quarter-unit.
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