The Gonzaga Bulldogs (31-0) meet the Baylor Bears (27-2) in Monday night’s National Championship Game. The West Region-champ Bulldogs and South Region-champ Bears will tip off at 9:20 p.m. ET at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. Below, we analyze the Gonzaga vs. Baylor National Championship Game odds and lines, with March Madness NCAA Tournament picks and predictions.
Gonzaga is No. 1 and Baylor is No. 3 in the Ferris Mowers Coaches Poll powered by USA Today Sports, the last iteration of which was published March 14. The Bulldogs and Bears were neck-and-neck in the poll until February when Baylor program activities were halted for three weeks due to COVID-19 protocols.
The Bulldogs are trying to become the first NCAA-I men’s basketball team to go undefeated and claim a national title since Bobby Knight’s Indiana Hoosiers did so in 1976.
Gonzaga vs. Baylor: Odds, spread and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:10 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Gonzaga -200 (bet $200 to win $100) | Baylor +165 (bet $100 to win $165)
- Against the spread/ATS: Gonzaga -4.5 (-110) | Baylor +4.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: 159.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Gonzaga vs. Baylor: What you need to know
Gonzaga
Gonzaga, the nation’s top-scoring team with 91.6 points per game, is coming off quite a scare. In Saturday’s semifinal against UCLA, Gonzaga trailed multiple times in the game’s final six minutes, went to overtime and eventually won 93-90 on a buzzer-beater by G Jalen Suggs.
Analytics peg the ‘Zags as the No. 1 team in the nation in offensive efficiency and as a top-10 team at the other end of the floor. Metrics of note include the Bulldogs being a top-notch squad in turnover avoidance, preventing offensive rebounds, and blocking shots.
GU is an elite shooting team. The Bulldogs don’t attempt a ton of triples, but they are no slouches from distance (37.0% from beyond the arc), and they have a remarkable 63.9% conversion rate on 2-point attempts.
The Bulldogs typically get a slew of dunks, tip-ins, and lay-ups, and they’re adept at scoring in transition, on second-chance put-backs and avoiding the same on defense.
For head coach Mark Few and the five from Spokane, Wash., it has all come together to result in GU outshooting foes, 54.6% to 43.2%, in five NCAA Tournament games.
Baylor
Baylor ranks third in the nation in points per game. The Bears are further down the defensive rankings than Gonzaga, but that is mostly due to a post-COVID slide when the team scuffled upon returning to action.
BU attempts more treys and with good reason: the Bears’ 41.2% conversion rate for the season is first in the nation. Baylor is an elite team in scrambling for offensive rebounds and in creating opponent turnovers.
For the Bears, distance and mid-ange shooting are difference-makers. So is BU’s ability to flip possessions and score in transition while preventing the same from its opponents.
In their five-game march to the program’s first national final since 1948, the Bears have forced 15.4 turnovers per game while committing just 7.0. BU’s closest bracket game thus far was a nine-point win over Arkansas in the South Region finals.
Gonzaga vs. Baylor: Odds, lines, predictions and picks
Prediction
Gonzaga 81, Baylor 79
Money line (ML)
Baylor’s 2020-21 line includes not only an impressive climb out of a valley of COVID struggles but a tremendous record in games against good offenses.
In games against the best offenses in the Big 12 (West Virginia, Texas, Texas Tech, and Oklahoma) and the best in their non-conference action (Illinois, Houston, Villanova, Wisconsin), the Bears are a combined 9-0 against the spread.
BU’s style of play and ability to crank out plus-performances in the turnover exchange and distance game makes for a smack in the mouth against good offenses. A smack in the mouth at first, then a few solid jabs, and eventually an uppercut knockout punch. If that happens to Gonzaga, can the Bulldogs get up off the mat? Can they do that after Saturday’s emotional grinder against UCLA?
Yes, the ‘Zags are an elite team, a different ring foe than those that fell before against the Bears but there is no challenge-and-return-in-48 hours in GU’s results from this season.
BAYLOR (+165) is worth a play. The Bears aren’t worthy of being a favorite but the price here is enough.
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Against the spread (ATS)
Peg BEARS +4.5 (-110) as the strongest play in this game.
Baylor’s 3-point shooting and ability to steal a bucket or two make a mid-two-possession cushion enough to tag it as real value to leverage.
Over/Under (O/U)
At alternating times over the last 16 hours, this contest has looked like a solid neutral-venue Under and a score-dragged-upward-of-160 Over.
In those aforementioned Baylor games against top offenses, the Over went 6-3. Tag the Over 159.5 (-110) with a lean, but there isn’t enough ammo to warrant a play.
PASS.
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