The Golden State Warriors (21-5) cruise over to Gainbridge Fieldhouse Monday for a 7 p.m. ET game against the Indiana Pacers (12-16). Below, we look at the Warriors vs. Pacers odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions, and bets.
Golden State has split its last six games 3-3 overall (2-4 ATS) with the latest being a 102-93 loss at the Philadelphia 76ers Saturday. The Warriors are 17-8-1 ATS and 7-18-1 O/U on the season with the second-best non-garbage time efficiency differential according to CleaningTheGlass.com (CtG).
Indiana has three straight wins over the Washington Wizards, New York Knicks and Dallas Mavericks entering Monday (2-0-1 ATS). The Pacers are 14-13-1 ATS and 13-15 O/U with the ninth-best non-garbage time efficiency differential (CtG).
These two sides both won and covered one game against each other last season and the Under was 2-0 in those games.
Warriors at Pacers odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:30 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Warriors -165 (bet $165 to win $100) | Pacers +133 (bet $100 to win $133)
- Against the spread (ATS): Warriors -3.5 (-112) | Pacers +3.5 (-108)
- Over/Under (O/U): 214.5 (O: -107 | U: -115)
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Warriors at Pacers key injuries
Warriors
- SF Andre Iguodala (rest) out
Pacers
- SF Justin Holiday (health and safety protocols) questionable
Warriors at Pacers odds, lines, picks and predictions
Prediction
Warriors 107, Pacers 104
Money line
PASS because I’m not confident enough in Indiana getting points to sprinkle on the Pacers (+133). I’d need Indiana’s money line to be priced around +190 to take a shot at it.
Against the spread
“LEAN” to the PACERS +3.5 (-108) because this line feels suspiciously low considering the difference between these two teams’ records. However, the oddsmakers understand that Indiana is better than its record indicates.
The Pacers’ minus-4.6 win differential is the worst in the NBA and Indiana’s in the top-10 of net efficiency despite its losing record. The Pacers are also 10-5 ATS against teams with a winning record and have been playing better recently.
Indiana is plus-6.6 points per 100 possessions over the last two weeks (ranked sixth) while Golden State is plus-3.8 points per 100 possessions (ranked 10th), per CtG.
This Pacers roster is familiar with and has played well against these Warriors. Indiana beat Golden State last season and the Pacers’ loss in the other game ended in a four-point final scoring margin, and both Steph Curry and Draymond Green played in Indiana’s victory against Golden State last season.
Over/Under
BET the UNDER 214.5 (-115) because the Warriors are 2-8 O/U on the road, the Pacers are 2-9 O/U with a minus-16.6 margin on the total as an underdog and the Under has cashed in three of the past four Warriors-Pacers meetings.
In addition, the Warriors have struggled offensively recently: Golden State is 24th in points per 100 possessions scored in competitive times over the past two weeks.
For what it’s worth, the UNDER 214.5 (-115) is my favorite wager in the Warriors-Pacers meeting.
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