Golden State Warriors odds line spread pick predictions best bets

Minnesota Timberwolves at Golden State Warriors odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Thursday’s Minnesota Timberwolves at Golden State Warriors odds and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Minnesota Timberwolves (24-23) head to the Chase Center Thursday for a 10 p.m. ET game with the Golden State Warriors (35-13). Below, we look at the Timberwolves vs. Warriors odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

Golden State won its third straight game Tuesday by crushing Dallas 130-92 at home. Over the past two weeks, the Warriors are 5-3 straight-up (SU) and 3-4-1 against the spread (ATS).

Minnesota fended off the Trail Blazers in Portland for a 109-107 win as 3-point road favorites Tuesday. The T-Wolves are 4-2 SU and 2-4 ATS in the last 14 days.

These teams are tied 1-1 SU and ATS in their head-to-head series this season with the home team winning and covering both games.

Timberwolves at Warriors odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:15 p.m. ET.

Money line: Timberwolves +205 (bet $100 to win $205) | Warriors -260 (bet $260 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Timberwolves +6.5 (-120) | Warriors -6.5 (-105)
Over/Under (O/U): 229.5 (O: -107 | U: -115)

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Timberwolves at Warriors key injuries

Timberwolves

PG Patrick Beverley (ankle) questionable

Warriors

PF Draymond Green (calf) out
SF Andre Iguodala (hip) out
C James Wiseman (knee) out

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Timberwolves at Warriors odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Warriors 121, Timberwolves 117

Money line

PASS because I only “lean” to Minnesota plus the points but don’t like it enough to sprinkle on the Timberwolves (+205).

But, the Warriors (-260) are the best team at home by adjusted net rating and this is a primetime matchup versus a young and up-and-coming T-Wolves team.

Also, Warriors wing Andrew Wiggins always balls versus his former team, and Golden State just diced up a good Dallas defense for 130 points.

Against the spread

“LEAN” to the TIMBERWOLVES +6.5 (-120) mostly because they are well-rested and are playing a fatigued Warriors -6.5 (-105).

For instance, this is Golden State’s fifth game in the past seven days whereas Minnesota is only playing in its third game.

Granted, both teams last played Tuesday, but the T-Wolves are 7-5 ATS (plus-4.0 ATS margin) with a rest advantage, and the Warriors are 6-9-1 ATS with a rest disadvantage.

However, most of the other trends point towards Golden State, and my favorite play in this game is the Over.

“LEAN” TIMBERWOLVES +6.5 (-120).

Over/Under

BET the OVER 229.5 (-107) for 1 unit because this total has been steamed from the 228-point opener up to the current price for several valid reasons.

Namely, two of three referees assigned to this game have officiated way more Overs than Unders. In fact, the officiating crew has a combined 56-41 O/U, which is a 57.7% rate to the Over.

Furthermore, Minnesota is 7-2 O/U over the past nine games, 6-0 O/U in its last six versus teams with a winning record, and the Over has cashed in five consecutive Timberwolves-Warriors.

Both teams play at an above-average pace, have an above-average offensive rebounding rate and rank in the top-three in 3-point attempt rate.

Lastly, Golden State’s offensive edge is obviously its Hall of Fame backcourt. Minnesota forces a ton of turnovers, which transitions into easy buckets whereas the Warriors can be clumsy with the ball (29th in offensive turnover rate).

The OVER 229.5 (-107) is my favorite wager in this game.

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Dallas Mavericks at Golden State Warriors odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Tuesday’s Dallas Mavericks at Golden State Warriors odds and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Dallas Mavericks (27-20) drop by Chase Center Tuesday to play the Golden State Warriors (34-13) at 10 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Mavericks vs. Warriors odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

Dallas bounced back from a loss to the Phoenix Suns Thursday to crush the Memphis Grizzlies 104-91 as a 4-point home favorite Sunday. The Mavs are 5-1 straight-up (SU) over their last six games.

Golden State has won back-to-back games over the Houston Rockets Friday and the Utah Jazz Sunday. However, the Warriors are 4-4 SU over the last two weeks.

The Mavs upset the Warriors 99-82 as 4.5-point underdogs in their first meeting this season Jan. 5 on the night of former Mavs great Dirk Nowitzki’s jersey retirement ceremony.

It was Dallas’s third straight victory over Golden State and the seventh in their last eight meetings. The Mavericks are 8-2 against the spread (ATS) in their last 10 games versus the Warriors.

Mavericks at Warriors odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:50 a.m. ET.

Money line: Mavericks +130 (bet $100 to win $130) | Warriors -160 (bet $160 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Mavericks +3.5 (-110) | Warriors -3.5 (-110)
Over/Under (O/U): 211.5 (O: -107 | U: -115)

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Mavericks at Warriors key injuries

Mavericks

None.

Warriors

SG Klay Thompson (knee) questionable
PF Draymond Green (back) out
SF Andre Iguodala (hip) out
C James Wiseman (knee) out

Mavericks at Warriors odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Mavericks 105, Warriors 101

Money line

SPRINKLE on the MAVERICKS (+130) because Dallas plus the points and is the sharper play so we should be hitting that harder.

However, Mavs All-Star G Luka Doncic has played very well versus the Warriors, while Golden State’s G Steph Curry is playing against a sneaky good Mavericks defense and has been terrible this month.

Luka is averaging 28.4 points per game (PPG) on 63.7% true shooting (.485/.434/.763) with 7.7 rebounds, 7.7 assists and a plus-12 net rating in his 11 career games against the Warriors.

On the other hand, Curry is averaging 20.8 PPG on 50.0% true shooting (.359/.299/.885) and a minus-5 net rating in 11 games in Jan.

Dallas is also first in non-garbage time defensive rating this month, according to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG).

Another reason I like the Mavericks in this spot is that they have been red-hot in Jan. Dallas is 10-2 SU, second in adjusted net rating and first in ATS margin at plus-5.6 in Jan.

On top of that, the Warriors have been underperforming expectations this month, especially considering Klay returned Jan. 9. Golden State is 7-6 SU, 13th in adjusted net rating and 24th in ATS margin at minus-3.0 in Jan.

Klay hasn’t really brought much to the table yet and the Warriors are missing two core pieces in Iguodala and Green.

Klay has a minus-0.9 adjusted on/off net rating in 126 minutes played but Iguodala has a plus-3.1 and Green has a plus-3.9 adjusted on/off net rating, per CTG.

The bottom line is the Warriors aren’t the Warriors currently and Dallas is clicking on all cylinders. Again, only SPRINKLE on the MAVERICKS (+130) with the plan of betting more on their spread.

Against the spread

Definitely BET the MAVERICKS +3.5 (-110) heavier than or instead of their money line.

Golden State is just 2-6-1 ATS in the last nine games, Dallas is 7-3 ATS on the road versus teams above-.500 and, again, has the best ATS margin in Jan.

For the record, the MAVERICKS +3.5 (-110) is my favorite wager in this game.

Over/Under

Slight “LEAN” to the UNDER 211.5 (-115) for a small wager, if at all, because the Warriors are 7-16-2 O/U at home with a minus-8.7 total margin and the Mavs are 9-13-1 O/U with a minus-5.3 total margin on the road.

That said, both teams obviously have a lot of firepower and the Over has cashed in 10 of the past 13 Mavericks-Warriors meetings.

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If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Please gamble responsibly.

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Utah Jazz at Golden State Warriors odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Sunday’s Utah Jazz at Golden State Warriors odds and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The NBA’s second-and third-best teams by net rating meet when the Utah Jazz (30-16) visit the Golden State Warriors (33-13) Sunday. Tip-off at the Chase Center is set for 8:30 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Jazz vs. Warriors odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

Utah snapped a two-game losing skid by defeating the Detroit Pistons 111-101 Friday but failed to cover as 14.5-point favorites.

In the last 14 days, the Jazz are just 2-4 straight-up (SU) and 1-5 against the spread (ATS) with a minus-0.3 adjusted net rating (ranked 18th) and the worst ATS margin at minus-11.4, according to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG).

Golden State eked past the Houston Rockets 105-103 at home Friday thanks to a G Stephen Curry buzzer-beater but couldn’t cover as 13-point favorites.

Over the past two weeks, the Warriors are 4-4 SU and 3-5 ATS with a plus-2.1 adjusted net rating (ranked 12th) and the 25th-ranked ATS margin at minus-2.8, per CTG.

The Warriors have won and covered three straight meetings with the Jazz, which includes a 123-116 victory in Utah on New Year’s Day.

Jazz at Warriors odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:45 p.m. ET.

Money line: Jazz +170 (bet $100 to win $170) | Warriors -210 (bet $210 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Jazz +5.5 (-120) | Warriors -5.5 (-105)
Over/Under (O/U): 219.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)

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Jazz at Warriors key injuries

Jazz

SG Bojan Bogdanovic (finger) probable
SG Donovan Mitchell (concussion) out
C Rudy Gobert (ankle) questionable
C Hassan Whiteside (reconditioning) questionable

Warriors

PF Draymond Green (calf) out

Jazz at Warriors odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Warriors 111, Jazz 104

Money line

PASS since these are two of the most efficient teams in the NBA, so the Warriors (-165) is too expensive despite how poorly the Jazz (+170) have been playing recently.

Against the spread

“LEAN” to the WARRIORS -5.5 (-105) for a half-unit, which would be upgraded to a full unit if Gobert misses this game.

The Jazz +5.5 (-120) are already going to be without their leading scorer in Mitchell and Gobert grades in the 94th percentile of bigs in adjusted on/off net rating, per CTG.

Furthermore, the Jazz run the highest rate of pick-and-roll (PnR) offense. Gobert is key to Utah’s PnR action. Also, the Warriors have the best PnR defensive efficiency versus ball handlers.

On top of that, Golden State has performed much better against top-10 teams in adjusted net rating than Utah.

The Warriors are second in adjusted net rating versus top-10 teams (CTG) and 13-6 ATS versus teams above-.500 (5-1 ATS at home).

Whereas the Jazz are 4-11 ATS versus teams above-.500 (2-4 ATS on the road) and have the 22nd-ranked ATS margin at minus-3.1 versus top-10 teams (CTG).

Finally, since the beginning of last season, Utah is an NBA-worst 2-5 ATS as a road underdog with the worst ATS margin at minus-4.6.

On the other hand, Golden State is an NBA’s best 28-15-1 ATS as a home favorite with a plus-3.4 ATS margin (ranked second) over that time span.

Over/Under

BET the UNDER 219.5 (-107) for 1 unit as my favorite wager in the Jazz-Warriors game.

As previously mentioned, Utah is definitely without its best shot creator and could be without an elite rim runner and offensive rebounder (Gobert).

Also, Golden State is ranked 27th in adjusted offensive rating over the past two weeks but fourth in adjusted defensive rating (per CTG).

Lastly, the Under has cashed in three of Utah’s past four games, the Jazz are 9-12-1 O/U on the road and the Warriors are 7-15-2 O/U as a home favorite.

Bet legally online with a trusted partner: Tipico Sportsbook, Sportsbook Wire’s official sportsbook partner in CO, NJ and, soon, IA. Bet now!

If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

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