A week ago, this space was all about touchdowns — who’s scoring how many and who’s not.
So it’s only fair that we devote this week’s column to the first two T’s — the targets and the touches.
Specifically, we’re spotlighting eight of the more eye-opening player usage rates so far through seven weeks, how they’ve shaped the fantasy football season to date, and what they mean going forward.
So, without further ado, we dive right in, kicking things off with the …
San Francisco 49ers backfield
It’s of little surprise that there is a Niners’ back ranked among the top 25 — No. 25 in fact — in terms of fantasy points per game.
It is a surprise, though, as to whom is that San Francisco rookie RB.
Elijah Mitchell, a sixth-round draft pick (194th overall) out of Louisiana, is that 25th-ranked back, averaging 12.2 fantasy points (point-per-reception scoring) per game with a total of 48.6 points in four games played.
That means it is not Trey Sermon of Ohio State, the team’s first third-round pick (88th overall), and a running back selected in the middle rounds of myriad fantasy drafts this summer. Mitchell, meanwhile, went undrafted in all but the deepest of non-keeper drafts.
Like Mitchell, Sermon also has been active for four games this season, but he’s totaled only 21.8 PPR points — an average of 5.5 per contest.
Mitchell has started only one more game than Sermon — who actually filled in for the former when he was sidelined with a shoulder injury in Weeks 3 and 4 — but has played 76 more snaps (159-83) and has more than doubled Sermon’s touches (67-33), including a 63-31 advantage in rushing attempts.
Any questions about the pecking order were effectively answered Sunday night as the Niners returned to action with both backs healthy following their Week 6 bye.
Mitchell started and played 37 of 56 offensive snaps (66.1), rushing for a season-high 107 yards and a TD on 18 attempts.
Sermon, meanwhile, played 11 snaps Sunday — all on special teams — as it was second-year RB JaMycal Hasty, who spelled Mitchell and served as the passing-game back with three carries for a yard and three catches on six targets for 15 yards on the cool, rain-soaked night.
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Mitchell hasn’t just out-touched Sermon, he’s been more efficient as well, totaling 326 yards and two TDs on his 67 touches (an average of 4.87 yards per touch), while Sermon has turned his 33 touches into 138 yards (4.18 yards per touch) and one TD.
And paired with the glaring disparity in playing time Sunday night after the 49ers’ coaches had the bye week to sort things out, Mitchell is the San Francisco rookie running back you want to use and roster for the foreseeable future.
49ers wideouts
There’s also been a clear and unexpected disparity of wide receiver targets by the Bay.
A year ago, first-round pick Brandon Aiyuk was San Fran’s unquestioned main man, finishing with 96 targets — 22 more than any other Niners’ pass-catcher — 60 receptions and 66 total touches, good for 825 total yards and seven touchdowns in 12 games. Those numbers equated 184.5 PPR points — an average of 15.4 per game, which tied for 17th among wideouts who played at least 10 contests.
Meanwhile in 2020, wide receiver Deebo Samuel — a second-round pick in 2019 — battled through an injury-filled season, garnering 44 targets, 30 receptions and 41 touches, good for 417 yards, one TD and 80.7 total fantasy points — an average of 11.5 per game.
Now six Niners games into 2021, Samuel has not only taken over as the team’s favored target, he’s dominated the pass-catching looks to a truly shocking degree. Samuel has 63 targets — 35 more than any other 49er — and has turned them into 38 receptions for 648 yards.
Add in six rushes for 22 yards and another TD, and Samuel has accounted for five of the team’s 13 offensive TDs and an amazing 44.4 percent of the team’s total receiving yards.
In terms of fantasy points, Samuel has totaled 135.0 — an average of 22.5, which trails only the Rams’ Cooper Kupp (27.2) among league wideouts.
Aiyuk, meanwhile, also has played in every game but has totaled only 16 targets and 18 touches, good for 96 receiving yards, 107 total yards, one TD and 25.7 fantasy points.
And, yes, that’s 25.7 fantasy points total — only 3.2 more than Samuel’s per-game average.
Again, truly shocking — and beyond disappointing for those fantasy general managers who took Aiyuk three or four rounds and 25 or so picks higher, on average, than where Samuel was drafted this summer.
Blame it on Aiyuk’s placement in coach Kyle Shanahan’s doghouse, reportedly with the wide receiver’s work and practice ethic — or relative lack of it — drawing Shanny’s ire. For that reason, Aiyuk didn’t draw a target while playing 26 offensive snaps in Week 1 and has only exceeded four targets once (six in Week 3) in the ensuing five games.
The team’s post-bye week usage rates were especially telling in Sunday night’s 30-18 loss to the Indianapolis Colts — and they were telling us not much has changed in the Niners’ wide receiver pecking order.
Samuel was targeted a team-most 11 (out of 27) times from QB Jimmy Garoppolo and accounted for 100 of the Niners’ 181 receiving yards and only receiving TD. Aiyuk, meanwhile, caught his only target for six yards.
Going forward, Samuel has to be treated as a WR1, while the doghoused Aiyuk — stunningly — is completely droppable as this point.
Atlanta Falcons backfield
The Falcons were another team Sunday coming off a Week 6 bye, and those who were hoping to see more clarity in the team’s backfield got their wish.
It’s a clarity, though, that keeps trending further away from preseason expectations.
In Sunday’s 30-28 win in Miami, Cordarrelle Patterson carried the ball a team-high 14 times for 60 yards and a TD while catching 2-of-5 targets for a yard. He played on 73 percent of the team’s offensive snaps.
Mike Davis, meanwhile, played 60 percent of the snaps but only received four carries for 10 yards and wasn’t targeted in the passing game for the first time all season.
It was a continuation of a diminishing playing time trend for Davis who has seen his share of the Falcons’ backfield touches decrease each week since debuting with a 66.6 percent share in Week 1. Sunday, it was 19 percent — falling below 40 percent for the first time this season — although it should be noted that Davis did hobble off the field late in the fourth quarter with an unknown issue and didn’t return.
Patterson, meanwhile, has taken the increased workload and run with it.
With 82 touches in six games on the season, Patterson is three away from his career season high of 85 set last season in 16 games with the Bears. He’s totaled 529 scrimmage yards and six TDs on those 85 touches, good for 115.9 total PPR points — an average of 19.3 per game, which currently ranks seventh among all running backs.
In short, it’s in the lead for the unlikeliest fantasy success story of the season.
On the other hand, it’s been a tale of woe for the fantasy GMs who spent a midround pick on Davis.
He has 60.2 total fantasy points on the season, averaging 10 per outing. Davis’ high-water mark, though, was only 14.1 points in Week 5 and was followed up by his season-worst one-point showing Sunday against the Dolphins.
At 30, Patterson is two years older than Davis, but six weeks in, we have to accept reality that not only is Patterson the best fantasy back on the Falcons, but he’s a legit fantasy RB1 as well.
Among running backs, only D’Andre Swift (42), Najee Harris (34) and Myles Gaskin (28) have logged more receptions than Patterson’s 27, and only Swift (391) has had more receiving yards than Patterson’s 296. And that’s with Patterson already having had his bye week.
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Patterson is tied for sixth in the league with six total TDs, and in terms of yards per touch, only Washington’s J.D. McKissic (6.87) is averaging more yards per touch than Patterson’s 6.45.
Davis, as most time-share RBs are, is still worth a bench spot in 12-team and larger leagues, but Patterson — believe it or not — has become a locked-in starter, regardless of league size or format.
Los Angeles Chargers wide receivers
Keenan Allen has led the Chargers in receiving yards in four straight seasons and in five of nine campaigns overall since his rookie year of 2013.
Allen also has dominated the team target share in each of the last four seasons, pacing the Bolts by an average of 60.3 targets per year more than the next-closest man.
But coming out of the team’s Week 7 bye, it’s fellow WR Mike Williams who leads the Chargers with 498 receiving yards — 79 ahead of Allen’s total of 419 — and has done so on six fewer receptions (39-33) and two fewer targets (58-56).
And thanks to his 6-to-1 TD advantage, Williams also is averaging 5.3 more fantasy points per game (19.8-14.5) than his more experienced teammate, ranking as a midlevel WR1, while Allen is currently a high-end WR3.
Allen is still averaging a very healthy 9.7 targets per game — a slight increase, actually, from his 9.5 average over the previous four seasons.
Williams, though, has seen his target share increase dramatically.
Since his rookie season of 2017 through 2020, Williams averaged 4.7 targets and 2.7 receptions per game. So far this season, those averages are 9.3 targets and 5.5 receptions as second-year QB Justin Herbert spreads the ball around more (RB Austin Ekeler and TE Jared Cook have combined for 65 targets and 48 catches as well).
The increased usage consistency — Williams has only one game out of six this season with fewer than five targets — makes him a weekly WR starter.
Allen, meanwhile, certainly remains a viable weekly WR2 fantasy starter with ample upside, but he’s no longer the Bolts’ unquestioned target dominator of recent seasons and now has a lower weekly fantasy floor.
Briefly, four more intriguing player usage situations of note …
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ backfield: In the Bucs’ four games since a Week 3 loss to the Rams, Leonard Fournette has accounted for 68.9 percent of the team’s running back touches (an average of 21 per game) and has averaged 21.4 PPR points per outing. Over that same span, fellow backs Ronald Jones and Giovani Bernard are averaging 9.5 touches and 9.2 fantasy points — combined — per contest.
- Cincinnati Bengals pass catchers: With 51 targets in seven games, rookie wideout Ja’Marr Chase has only six more than fellow WR Tyler Boyd and eight more than WR Tee Higgins. Similarly, Chase only has a slight lead in receptions with 35 to Boyd’s 32 and Higgins’ 25, but he has more receiving yards (754-585), TD catches (6-3) and total PPR points (146.2-133.5) than Boyd and Higgins combined.
- Chicago Bears wide receivers: From 2019-20, WR Allen Robinson totaled 305 targets, 200 receptions and 517.8 PPR points — per-game averages of 9.5 targets, 6.3 catches and 16.2 fantasy points — which was 144 targets, 99 receptions and 281.6 fantasy points more than any other Chicago wide receiver or tight end during that span. Seven games into the 2021 season, though, Robinson trails fellow wideout Darnell Mooney in targets (44-40), receptions (27-23) and fantasy points (68.5-54) while seeing his per-game averages slip to 5.7 targets, 3.3 receptions and 7.7 fantasy points (71st among WRs who have played at least three games) in the Bears’ low-volume passing attack under rookie QB Justin Fields. Yikes. Hopefully you traded Robinson while he still had some value.
- Baltimore Ravens backfield: In seven games this season, the Ravens are averaging 30.6 rushing attempts and 149.4 rushing yards per game — well off their league-leading 2019-20 averages of 36 attempts and 199 ground yards per outing. And with QB Lamar Jackson’s 2021 per-game attempts (11.2-10.9) and rushing yards (73.7-68.6) averages only down slightly from that previous span, it means the rest of the team is averaging 5.1 fewer attempts and 44.7 fewer rushing yards per outing. Of the six backs who have logged a carry for the Ravens this season, only Latavius Murray (9.8, 10.5) is averaging more than 6.6 rushing attempts and 8.4 touches per game, and he currently ranks 43rd at the position with 51.7 total fantasy points and 47th with an average of 8.6 points per game (minimum three games).
