In a women’s strawweight bout on the main card, Claudia Gadelha and Yan Xiaonan meet at UFC on ESPN+ 40 Saturday at the UFC’s APEX facility in Las Vegas. The early prelims kick off at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN+, followed by the main card set for 10 p.m. ET, also on ESPN+.
Gadelha (18-4) steps into the octagon, and she will face a punching machine. The Brazilian jiu-jitsu expert has posted 3.40 significant strikes landed per minute to 6.72 for her counterpart. The veteran Gadelha will be looking to get this fight to the canvas early, as she holds 3.13 to 1.20 takedown-average advantage, and she has a submission win over Karolina Kowalkiewicz among her 11 fights at the UFC level. However, her other 10 bouts have each gone the distance, so more often than not she tries to wow the judges with her technical ability.
Xiaonan (12-1) has posted a perfect 5-0 record at the UFC level, with all five of those battles coming via unanimous decision. That includes common opponent Kowalkiewicz, whom she pushed past on Feb. 22 on the Felder-Hooker fight night card last time out. The striker has posted a 12-1 record across 13 career professional fights, including five wins via TKO/KO. One thing to watch, her only loss as a pro came against Karina Hallinan at MC: Martial Combat 10 on Sept. 16, 2010. Yes, that’s quite a while ago and she has grown as a fighter in a decade, but that’s an area Gadelha will still look to have the advantage.
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Claudia Gadelha vs. Yan Xiaonan: Betting odds, predictions and picks
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 10 p.m. ET.
XIAONAN (-167) is the favorite in this one over the veteran Gadelha (+140) on the 2-way line, and the Chinese-born striker is a good play. She is a perfect 5-for-5 since arriving at the UFC level, and she’ll be looking to impress the judges more than her Brazilian counterpart.
Both fighters rarely, if ever, finish inside the distance. While voting YES (-250): WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE? is a little pricey, it’s the good call. In addition, play XIAONAN ON POINTS (+110) at plus-money at a cheaper price with less risk. However, if she were to win inside the distance, via doctor’s stoppage, or any other way, you would be holding a losing ticket. As such, the 2-way line is a better play with more paths to victory.
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Also see:
- UFC on ESPN+ 40 predictions (MMA Junkie)
- UFC on ESPN+ 40 pre-event facts (MMA Junkie)
- MMA Junkie – The latest UFC/MMA coverage
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