Mountain West Basketball: Fresno State vs. Washington–Preview, Odds, Prediction

Bulldogs look to get on track in the Paycom Wooden Legacy

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Game 5: Fresno State (1-3) vs. Washington (3-1)

When: Wednesday, November 23rd – 6:30 PT

Where: Anaheim Arena; Anaheim, CA

How to Watch: ESPNU

Odds: Washington -2  Over/Under 129

Fresno State joins the Feast Week party on Wednesday night, as they will travel to Anaheim to participate in the Paycom Wooden Legacy, a small four-team event taking place on Thanksgiving Eve and Thanksgiving Day.  Their opponent in game 1 will be the Washington Huskies out of the PAC-12.  Turkey day’s matchup will be determined by Wednesday’s results, with the two teams in the other half of the bracket being Vanderbilt and nationally ranked St. Mary’s.    

The Bulldogs will look to end a three-game slide against the Huskies, and will need to find some solutions on the offensive end in order to do so.  The numbers are bleak, and that’s putting it nicely.  FSU is averaging 58.8 ppg, slotting them 343rd out of 363 DI teams–not good.  Part of that can be chalked up to playing at a snail’s pace.  Per KenPom’s metrics, Fresno State ranks 347 in tempo, so they have far fewer possessions than most teams, and therefore fewer shots.  But let’s talk about those shots.  The Bulldogs are shooting 41% from the field, also a bottom 50 mark in the nation.  It gets even worse when looking at the 3-point line, where they clock in at 24%, one of the bottom 20 in the country.  We’ll stop there with the continued listing of poor rankings, but needless to say, FSU is not supplementing their poor half-court offense with many 2nd chance points, or fast-break points either.  The last area of concern is taking care of the basketball, as the Bulldogs sport a negative assist to turnover ratio; in other words, they have more total turnovers on the season than they do assists, and by quite a wide margin too.

What can Fresno State do to breathe some life into the offense?  Well first, the eternal optimist may say hold on a minute, let’s take a look at our early season schedule, where three very solid mid-major defensive squads have been the ones putting the shackles on FSU.  San Francisco, UCSB, and North Texas all rank at the top of their respective leagues in terms of defensive numbers.  While that is true, it’s also accurate that in the Bulldogs exhibition game, and game one of the regular season, they faced off against Division II opponents, and did not reach the 70 point mark in either game.  

Unfortunately, replacing all-MWC performer Orlando Robinson has proven more difficult than anticipated, as there is just not a lot of scoring punch on the roster.  Some of that was thought to be addressed when coach Justin Hutson brought in prized recruit Joseph Hunter, the highest ranked Bulldog recruit since the Jerry Tarkanian era.  Hunter, the preseason MWC Freshman of the Year, spurned offers from Arkansas, USC, San Diego State and others to stay home and play for FSU.  Unfortunately, Hunter’s season was over before it began, as he suffered a thumb injury and is set to have surgery.  Fresno State’s hopes for a top-half Mountain West Conference finish may have gone under the knife with Hunter.  

While it’s not time to hit the panic button yet, Hutson and his staff will soon need to identify some easier ways to get the ball in the basket.  Playing at a super slow pace is fine if you are doing it efficiently.  The Bulldogs, however, are far from efficient through two weeks.  Perhaps speeding things up a bit will spark the offense.  The schedule becomes more manageable before the holiday break and conference play begins, with the possible exception of a matchup Thursday with St. Mary’s.  Those upcoming games should provide a solid measuring stick for whether some serious philosophical changes need to be made on offense, or whether it was simply a case of running into a series of stingy defenses.  Whatever the verdict on that is, FSU could use some shot making from Jemarl Baker and Anthony Holland to keep defenses honest and prevent teams from collapsing in the paint on leading scorer Isaih Moore.  Namesake Isaiah Hill was a double figure scorer a year ago, but has struggled in the early going.  There are options for Fresno State, it’s just a matter of executing and knocking down shots.  

Luckily, under Hutson the Bulldogs will always be in games because of their attention to detail on the defensive end.  Teams are shooting as poorly against Fresno State, as they are shooting themselves.  It’s a very fundamentally sound system that rarely lets an opposing player go wild.  They’ve done a good job of both taking away the 3-point line, and keeping opponents off the foul line.  They are also difficult to get easy baskets in transition against.  Most importantly, the defensive intensity has not wavered, despite the struggles of the offense, a testament to the buy-in of the players.  

Washington comes into this contest on the heels of their first loss of the season, a disappointing 73-64 home setback to Cal Baptist.  Contrary to Fresno State, the Huskies did not exactly schedule tough to begin the season, opening with four straight buy-games at home.  Dropping one of those is something Huskies fans have grown accustomed to under 6th year coach Mike Hopkins.  The natives are definitely restless in Seattle, as UW has underperformed over the last few seasons.  The long-time Jim Boeheim assistant brought the 2-3 zone west with him, and they absolutely have the personnel to run it this year, possessing length, and lots of it.  Hopkins hit the transfer portal to get 4 of his top 8 players, including former Bulldog, Braxton Meah.  The 7-footer spent two years in a Fresno State uniform, earning spot minutes.  He now plays 20 minutes a game, scores 7.5 and grabs 5.5 boards a night, while anchoring the middle of the zone.  When he is taking a break, fellow 7-footer and Oregon transfer Franck Kepnang is more than serviceable as his backup, tallying 9.5/7.5 per game.  The guards and wings are long as well, as Hopkins only has one member of his rotation shorter than 6’4”.  When you’re able to play that lineup, it’s quite an imposing sight, and shows why Syracuse has excelled using the zone for many years.  

Hopkins has a few scorers at his disposal as well, including Kentucky transfer Keion Brooks Jr.  The 6’7” senior, has only played in two games as he works his way back from a leg injury.  He has racked up 31 points and 13 rebounds in the two outings, doing his damage attacking the basket, and from the mid-range.  The leading scorer is actually the smallest member of the Huskies, true freshman Keyon Menifield.  The 6’1” guard fills the stat sheet, and is all over the floor.  He is hitting 50% of his 3’s, and is a willing passer.  He is the engine that is making UW’s offense run at the moment.  Returning starter Jamal Bey is also a threat from the outside.  Because of their size advantage, Washington usually enjoys an edge on the glass as well, corralling double figure offensive rebound outputs in three out of their four games.

This is a really tough game to forecast.  On one hand, you have a team in Fresno State clearly having difficulty scoring the basketball.  Now you add in the dynamic of facing a different type of defense, in the lengthy 2-3 zone.  But maybe that has the opposite effect – it loosens the Bulldogs up, and they can knock some shots down.  If nothing else, though the extended zone at times can seem like there are six defenders on the floor, at least they are not applying in your face ball pressure the way North Texas did last time out.  On the flip side, while Washington has looked better here in the first two weeks, their competition leaves a lot to be desired.  The strength of schedule ranks in the bottom 10% in all of Division I.  Some of those easy shots and rebounds are going to be a lot tougher to come by against FSU.  It’s also their first game outside of Seattle, so it may take a little bit of time for the Huskies to get adjusted.  The best and most consistent unit on the floor in this matchup will be the Bulldogs defense.  For that reason, the hunch here, and it’s not a strong hunch, is that someone in a Fresno State uniform – maybe Hill, maybe Baker – gets hot, the Bulldogs play their typical top-rate defense, and they scrape by with a clutch win.

Prediction: Fresno State 64  Washington 60

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Mountain West Basketball: San Francisco vs. Fresno State–Preview, Odds, Prediction

Bulldogs host Dons in non-conference showdown

Contact/Follow on Twitter  @coachmosser & @MWCwire

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Game 3: San Francisco Dons (3-0) @ Fresno State Bulldogs (1-1)

When: Wednesday, November 16th – 7:00 PT

Where: Save Mart Center; Fresno, CA

How to Watch: Livestream on Mountain West Network

Odds: Fresno State -1  Over/Under 136.5

It’s back on the horse for Fresno State, as they look to rebound following their first loss of the season, when they play host to San Francisco on Wednesday night at the Save Mart Center.  The Bulldogs dropped a 61-54 contest on the road Friday afternoon in a Veteran’s Day matinee against Cal Santa Barbara.  

Unfortunately, most in the area were choosing to honor those who have served our nation in different ways, as the announced crowd was 121.  That’s right, no zero or other digit missing at the end of that number, just 121 people attended; as meager a total as you will see for a college basketball game, at any level.  The lack of an atmosphere in the building may have trickled down onto the floor, as Fresno State struggled in what turned out to be a very low possession and low scoring game.  That shouldn’t be an excuse though, sometimes you have to create your own energy, especially as a veteran team, which the Bulldogs certainly qualify as.  

Returning four starters is a rarity in today’s college game, where plucking multiple key players from the transfer portal is the preferred method of roster building.  Justin Hutson, in his 5th year in charge of the Bulldogs, has instead chosen to run it back with much of his core from a season ago.  Granted, the one missing piece from last year is the most important, 7-footer Orlando Robinson.  The all-Mountain West Conference performer is now on the roster of the Miami Heat, and has taken his 19/8/3 stat line with him.  Replacing that production has proven difficult in the early going.

The shooting percentages aren’t terrible, but there has been very little offensive rebounding, and turnovers have been a problem.  Combined with playing at a fairly slow pace, it’s easy to see why the Bulldogs have scored 69, 69, and 54 in their 3 games (including an exhibition).  Those totals don’t scream awful, but consider that two of those three outings are against Division II programs, and it’s a little more eye-opening as a potential issue moving forward.  

Much of the problem is, without Robinson, there is not a ‘go-to-guy’ the Bulldogs can count on to get a bucket when in the middle of a scoring drought.  Anthony Holland is the best shooter on the roster and has connected on 4 of 10 from deep, but until someone else proves they can knock down a bomb, and to this point no one has, he is going to draw the toughest defender from opposing teams.  Something else to note; the Bulldogs are shooting only 9-33 from 3-point land.  They are 33-61 from inside the arc.  Better shot selection and recognition of strengths may need to come into focus sooner rather than later.  

Isaih Moore has been a pleasant surprise, and the most efficient player on the offensive end.  The 6’10” Southern Miss transfer is 10-17 from the floor, with most of his damage done from inside the paint.  He is also the only member of Hutson’s current eight-man rotation that stands taller than 6’7”, and is doubling as a rim protector on the defensive end.  It would be helpful for Fresno State if Jemarl Baker Jr. could regain the form that made him a prized Kentucky recruit years ago.  As it is, he continues to work his way back from injuries that have ended his last two seasons.  

What type of matchup is this for FSU?  While San Francisco might not come to mind when thinking of top-end WCC programs, like Gonzaga and St. Mary’s do, the Dons have quietly built themselves into an annual contender for an NCAA at-large berth, and they finally snagged one of those last season.  This year will look different though, as head man Todd Golden has taken off for the SEC (Florida), and the two ringleaders a year ago, Jamaree Bouyea and Yauhen Massalski, have exhausted their eligibility.  Those two combined to average over 30 points, 14 rebounds, and 5 assists per game in 2021-22.  

Two other starters also graduated, and new coach Chris Gerlufsen moves over one seat from the top assistant’s chair to take over for his mentor.  Order number one was replenishing the roster, and Gerlufsen did that the newfound way, grabbing transfers from high-major schools Washington State, Texas A&M, and Georgia Tech.  Those three, guards Tyrell Roberts and Marcus Williams, and big man Saba Gigiberia will be counted on heavily.  But, they will all play supporting actor to the most important returning piece–Khalil Shabazz.  The lightning quick guard does it all on both ends, will fill the leadership void left by Bouyea’s absence, and is truly a stat stuffer.  He is averaging 16 a game in the early going, and has pulled down 20 boards, a ridiculously high number for someone standing 6’0”.  For good measure, he has 9 assists and 8 steals.  Neutralizing him should be of the utmost importance for Hutson and his staff.

There is depth for this San Francisco squad too, as Gerlufsen has been comfortable going 10 deep thus far, as opposed to the eight that Hutson will trot out there.  It is spread out pretty evenly among the back court and the front court and includes a very intriguing wildcard–7’2” junior Volodymyr Markovetskyy.  Let’s get this out of the way first, the man needs a nickname, and another game like his 20 point, 4 rebound effort (in only 17 minutes) on Saturday, and I’m sure someone on Twitter will come up with something for the massive Ukrainian.  He is one of several bigs that pound the glass, a staple of this USF resurgence under Golden, and now Gerlufsen.

This is an interesting game to break down.  On one hand, many of the schematic advantages and the overall personnel point towards a USF win.  They have more size, more scoring punch, and the best player on the floor, in Shabazz.  They also seem to have a deeper bench and more ways to score the ball.  However, their schedule thus far has consisted of three lower tier opponents, all at home.  Playing on the road in college basketball is an entirely different animal, and of course this will be Gerlufsen’s first time in charge away from the friendly confines.  Additionally, with all the new pieces on the roster, it’s likely they are not as in sync as they will be come January.  And with none of the three games being close, how will they respond in a tight one down the stretch?  

For Fresno State, they do not seem to have the firepower to go blow for blow with the Dons.  But, while USF was a top 30 defensive unit nationally a season ago, many of those pieces, including the head coach, have turned over, and maybe they are temporarily still a work in progress.  Also, returning home after a drab effort on the road should provide a little extra juice for the Bulldogs.  We have seen multiple teams early in this college season lay an egg, and then rebound the next time out with a completely different effort.  Temple comes to mind, losing to Wagner and then following that with an upset win over Villanova.  Closer to home, Boise State dropped their opener to South Dakota State and then bounced back to defeat PAC-12 sleeper Washington State.

Under Hutson, the Bulldogs have been fairly predictable.  They beat the teams they are supposed to, and come up just short against the teams above them in the conference standings.  It’s run that way for much of his four seasons at the helm.  The problem is, at this point it’s tough to gauge where each team stands in regards to the other, making this one extremely difficult to call.  The hunch is we see an inspired Fresno State team on Wednesday night, and they eke out a close, home victory.

Prediction: Fresno State 66  San Francisco 63

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