Tag: Football Power Index

All 32 NFL teams (including the Broncos) ranked by FPI ratings

Going into Week 7, the Broncos have a -3.8 Football Power Index (FPI) rating from ESPN, which ranks 25th in the NFL. 

Six games into the season, the Denver Broncos (3-3) have a -3.8 Football Power Index (FPI) rating from ESPN, which ranks 25th in the NFL.

The New Orleans Saints (2-4), who will host the Broncos on Thursday Night Football this week, are ranked 29th with a -5.2 FPI rating.

FPI is “a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team’s performance going forward for the rest of the season,” according to ESPN.com. “FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule.”

So with that background in mind, here’s a look at how the league’s 32 teams stack up based on FPI going into Week 7 of the 2024 NFL season.

  1. Detroit Lions (4-1): 6.8
  2. Baltimore Ravens (4-2): 6.0
  3. Kansas City Chiefs (5-0): 5.8
  4. San Francisco 49ers (3-3): 4.8
  5. Buffalo Bills (4-2): 4.6
  6. Green Bay Packers (4-2): 4.4
  7. Philadelphia Eagles (3-2): 2.5
  8. Minnesota Vikings (5-0): 2.4
  9. Houston Texans (5-1): 2.1
  10. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-2): 1.8
  11. New York Jets (2-4): 1.6
  12. Washington Commanders (4-2): 1.3
  13. Chicago Bears (4-2): 1.3
  14. Cincinnati Bengals (2-4): 1.2
  15. Atlanta Falcons (4-2): 0.9
  16. Pittsburgh Steelers (4-2): 0.6
  17. Indianapolis Colts (3-3): 0.2
  18. Los Angeles Rams (1-4): -0.1
  19. Arizona Cardinals (2-4): -0.6
  20. Los Angeles Chargers (3-2): -0.6
  21. Dallas Cowboys (3-3): -1.1
  22. Seattle Seahawks (3-3): -1.4
  23. Tennessee Titans (1-4): -3.0
  24. Jacksonville Jaguars (1-5): -3.0
  25. Denver Broncos (3-3): -3.8
  26. New York Giants (2-4): -3.8
  27. Cleveland Browns (1-5): -4.2
  28. Las Vegas Raiders (2-4): -4.3
  29. New Orleans Saints (2-4): -5.2
  30. Carolina Panthers (1-5): -6.9
  31. Miami Dolphins (2-3): -8.0
  32. New England Patriots (1-5): -9.8

The Broncos will aim to improve their rating when they take on the Saints in Week 7. Denver is currently three spots up from its ranking last week.

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Where Georgia ranks in ESPN’s latest FPI rankings

After a week full of heavyweight matchups, ESPN released their Football Power Index rankings. Where are the Georgia Bulldogs ranked?

ESPN’s FPI (Football Power Index) rankings are officially out after Week 7’s spectacle. There were several matchups between teams on this list, but in the end, a familiar team remains on top.

According to ESPN, FPI is defined as “a predictive rating system designed to measure team strength and project performance going forward.” In the FPI top 25 rankings, there are 10 teams in the SEC, including four in the top 10, showing how much competition Georgia has to deal with in the top conference in college football.

Speaking of Georgia, they stay put on the fourth spot, despite playing in a close 41-31 game against Mississippi State, a team Georgia was favored by 33.5 to beat. Several fans voiced displeasure after the win, but Georgia stays put. Let’s see if they can hold serve against Texas next week.

The biggest matchup was between two top 10 teams in this chart: Ohio State vs. Oregon. In a battle of Big Ten supremacy that “College GameDay” attended, it was close all the way through. Oregon got a late score and the Buckeyes were not able to mount a late drive to win, resulting in a 32-31 Oregon win. Despite it, this matchup had no bearings on the FPI rankings, as both teams stayed put.

The Penn State-USC game was close too, but Penn State was able to keep their undefeated season alive with a game-winning field goal in overtime. Ole Miss-LSU came down to overtime too, but on LSU’s first possession, Garrett Nussmeier fired a rocket to Kyren Lacy to clinch the 29-26 win for the LSU Tigers.

One game that wasn’t close was the Texas-Oklahoma matchup. Oklahoma may be a good team, but Texas was on another level, demolishing the Sooners 34-3 in Quinn Ewers’ return. As a result, Oklahoma dropped three spots, which is the biggest drop of the group.

Texas remains the top team in the FPI rankings ahead of the Texas-Georgia game.

ESPN’s Top 25 FPI Rankings after Week 7

.Aaron E. Martinez/Austin American-Statesman / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
  1. Texas (29.7 FPI)
  2. Ohio State (26.9 FPI)
  3. Alabama (23.7 FPI)
  4. Georgia (22.5 FPI)
  5. Ole Miss (21.6 FPI)
  6. Notre Dame (20.9 FPI)
  7. Tennessee (20.2 FPI)
  8. Oregon (19.2 FPI)
  9. Penn State (18.3 FPI)
  10. Miami (17.7 FPI)
  11. Clemson (16.8 FPI)
  12. Texas A&M (15.6 FPI)
  13. USC (14.8 FPI)
  14. LSU (14.5 FPI)
  15. Indiana (14.1 FPI)
  16. Louisville (14.0 FPI)
  17. Iowa State (13.2 FPI)
  18. SMU (12.8 FPI)
  19. Missouri (12.7 FPI)
  20. Oklahoma (11.9 FPI)
  21. Kansas State (11.8 FPI)
  22. Boise State (11.6 FPI)
  23. Iowa (11..0 FPI)
  24. Tulane (10.1 FPI)
  25. Arkansas (9.6 FPI)

LSU rises 1 spot in ESPN’s Football Power Index after Ole Miss upset win

The Tigers are moving up in the FPI rankings, but they’re not yet a top-10 team despite Saturday’s win.

LSU’s thrilling overtime win against Ole Miss put it right back in the thick of the College Football Playoff Race and will likely earn the Tigers a top-10 ranking when the polls release on Sunday.

However, it wasn’t quite enough to see a major rise in ESPN’s Football Power Index rankings. In those power rankings, LSU did see a one-spot bump from No. 14 to No. 15, but it will take some more work to reach the top 10.

Now that the Tigers are in the meat of SEC play, the next few weeks will prove decisive with games against Arkansas, Texas A&M and Alabama upcoming.

There’s a lot of work that still needs to be done, but a trip to the CFP for the first time in coach Brian Kelly’s LSU tenure is still on the table at the midpoint of the season.

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LSU stays put in ESPN’s FPI amid a chaotic bye week

The Tigers’ ranking wasn’t affected by all the chaos around them during the bye week.

The LSU Tigers picked a good week to be idle.

Week 6 Saturday was pure chaos around college football, with four top-10 teams going down and a fifth nearly suffering the same fate in Miami. In the SEC, two top-five teams lost to unranked opponents for the first time in league history as Alabama was stunned at Vanderbilt while Arkansas rallied to upset Tennessee.

All that chaos resulted in quite a bit of predictable movement within ESPN’s Football Power Index rankings, but that movement all happened around the Tigers. With LSU on bye, it’s staying put in this week’s update, remaining at No. 15.

The Tigers have the chance to gain some ground in these rankings when they return to the field on Saturday night in Week 7 with an Ole Miss team that ranks fifth in FPI coming to town.

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LSU rises into ESPN Football Power Index top 15 after win over South Alabama

LSU’s win over South Alabama has it continuing to rise in the ESPN FPI rankings.

LSU has responded nicely to a fifth-straight season-opening loss, reeling off four wins in a row to move to 4-1 as it heads into the bye week before a critical home game against Ole Miss.

As the Tigers continue to win, the analytics become higher on coach Brian Kelly’s team. After rising to No. 19 following a win over UCLA in Week 4, LSU is moving up even higher this week after its 42-10 win over South Alabama.

Now, the Tigers rank 15th, seventh among SEC teams. They come in one spot behind Missouri and two spots ahead of Oklahoma. Four SEC teams — Texas, Alabama, Georgia and Tennessee — rank inside the top five.

LSU will look to get things right this week before a game against the Rebels, which lost at home to Kentucky on Saturday and now have another tough game coming up on the road against South Carolina this weekend.

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Notre Dame moves up in ESPN’s Football Power Index after Purdue blowout

ESPN is still high on the Irish

While both major polls, the US LMB Coaches Poll and the AP Poll didn’t move Notre Dame much, ESPN did.

Their Football Power Index was updated following Week 3’s slate of games, and the Irish made a move from No. 10 up to No. 7 following the dismantling of Purdue. They jumped Penn State, and Missouri, while other teams around them did make a drop as well.

Looking across the country, Texas held onto its top ranking, while Tennessee jumped Georgia to make it into the top-4.

Notre Dame showed that they could put up plenty of points on offense, while its stout defense came to play against a more than solid Purdue attack.

WEST LAFAYETTE, INDIANA – SEPTEMBER 14: Boubacar Traore #5 of the Notre Dame Fighting Irish scores a touchdown after an interception during the first half against the Purdue Boilermakers at Ross-Ade Stadium on September 14, 2024 in West Lafayette, Indiana. (Photo by Justin Casterline/Getty Images)

Looking further into the data, ESPN gives the Irish a 22.8% chance to win out, and a 37.2% to make the [autotag]College Football Playoff[/autotag]. There was a 14.6 percentage point increase from last week to this for Notre Dame to make the CFP.

If ESPN is correct in its projections, the Irish are looking at a much better situation than they were in a week ago.

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ESPN’s Football Power Index gives Notre Dame a good chance at going undefeated

The FPI likes the Irish’s chances

It was quite the weekend for Notre Dame football, as they went to College Station and defeated Texas A&M 23-13.

The win was a big one in the eyes of the pundits, but also the computers. ESPN’s Football Power Index, FPI, analyzes what most is the most likely outcome for the remainder of the season.

The Irish move up just a spot after the games completed on Sunday night, as they are one of six schools the computer-based system believes will reach the 10-win mark. The FPI gives Notre Dame the best chance to win out, 20.2%, of the top six teams that it projects to crack the double-digit win mark.

That’s all great information, but what you really want to know is about Notre Dame’s chances in the College Football Playoff. The FPI gives the Irish a 69.2% to make the CFP, 11.3% to make the national championship game and  5.1% chance to win the title.

Those aren’t terrible odds when you are looking at the big picture, as it believes that one of the top-six teams will take home the title. Notre Dame is one of those teams.

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Could the Oklahoma Sooners make the playoff with 3 losses?

The Sooners have a tough schedule, but even a down year could include a berth in the College Football Playoff.

Entering the 2024 season a lot has been made of the Oklahoma Sooners schedule in year one in the [autotag]SEC[/autotag]. The schedule is tough, considering OU will play six teams ranked inside the top 15 of the US LBM Coaches Poll.

Due to the evolving nature of college football, with conference realignment and the expanded [autotag]College Football Playoff[/autotag], contending for a national title is going to look a lot different than it ever has.

In most years, your national champion will have one or fewer losses. However, we’ve reached the era of college football, where the team that wins the title could have multiple losses during the regular season and still go on to win the national championship.

And given the depth of the SEC and the Big Ten, there’s a reality where a three-loss team could make the playoff and (cough, cough) win the whole thing.

247Sports Brad Crawford explored a number of teams that could make the College Football Playoff with three losses. He included teams like Texas, USC, and Florida, among others. But one team he didn’t include in his discussion was Oklahoma. The Sooners have one of the tougher schedules in the nation, and arguably the second most difficult schedule in the SEC.

Nobody within the program or Oklahoma Sooners fan base would ever be satisfied with a three-loss regular season. But in the new era of college football, there’s a path in which the Sooners could go through the regular season with three losses and still make the College Football Playoff.

The Sooners will play Texas, Alabama, Ole Miss, Missouri, LSU, and Tennessee. Those six teams are inside the top 15 of the preseason Coaches Poll. And they’ll all likely be in the top 15 of the poll when the play Oklahoma. They will be marquee games that will have SEC title and playoff implications. Those six games will likely determine the 2024 season for the Sooners. Go 4-2 in those games and the Sooners are a playoff team. Go 3-3 and they’ll be on the fringe.

If Oklahoma’s losses are to teams like Texas, Alabama, and Ole Miss, three teams ranked in the top six of the preseason poll, then there’s a good chance the Sooners could earn one of those final at-large bids with wins over Missouri, LSU, and Tennessee along with a road win over Auburn. If they can include a win over Texas, Bama, or Ole Miss, it’ll give them an even better chance.

Currently, the ESPN Football Power Index gives the Oklahoma Sooners a 36.6% chance to make the playoff in 2024 and just a 5.1% chance to win the SEC. Their chance to make the playoff puts the Sooners 10th in the nation, even with a projected win-loss record of 8.2-3.9.

In the course of college football history, a three-loss team would be out of the running for a national title. But that’s in the past. It’s a new day in college football. Teams with two losses will still have a lot to play for in November. And the Oklahoma Sooners will be one of those teams with a lot to playoff in the final month of the season.

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Sooners overrated in ESPN’s Football Power Index per The Oklahoman

The Sooners placed fourth in the SEC in ESPN’s Football Power Index, trailing only Georgia, Texas and Alabama.

The Oklahoma Sooners football team was ranked fourth in the [autotag]SEC[/autotag] in ESPN’s Football Power index prior to the 2024 season.

OU came in at No. 8 overall in the country; six of the top 10 teams are from the SEC. [autotag]Brent Venables[/autotag]’ team trailed only Georgia (No. 1), Texas (No. 3) and Alabama (No. 5) in the Southeastern Conference.

Justin Martinez of The Oklahoman took a look at each SEC team relative to the ESPN Football Power Index. According to Martinez, the Sooners are overrated by the FPI.

Martinez had this to say.

OU has given the keys to sophomore quarterback [autotag]Jackson Arnold[/autotag]. And while he has a lethal receiver group that features Purdue transfer [autotag]Deion Burks[/autotag], he’ll be behind an offensive line that’s made up almost entirely of new pieces. The Sooners will lean on their defense, which boasts returners such as linebacker [autotag]Danny Stutsman[/autotag] and safety [autotag]Billy Bowman[/autotag]. But the No. 4 spot is high for a team that’ll likely be closer toward the middle of the pack. – Martinez, The Oklahoman

Martinez certainly has a point. Eighth in the country and fourth in the SEC would be a lofty finish for OU in Year 3 under Venables. The Sooners are transitioning from the [autotag]Big 12[/autotag] to a much more difficult conference in the SEC. The schedule and quality of athletes they’ll have to face this year will be much stronger than in past seasons.

Oklahoma will also be breaking in new coordinators on both sides of the ball. [autotag]Zac Alley[/autotag] takes over on defense, while [autotag]Seth Littrell[/autotag] and [autotag]Joe Jon Finley[/autotag] will run the offense.

Then, there’s the often-talked-about offensive line, which will probably be the hinge point of the entire season. As Martinez notes, it has been entirely rebuilt.

But what if the offensive line jells in 2024? What if [autotag]Jackson Arnold[/autotag] is a star and has an all-conference type of year? What if the defense continues to improve in Year 3 under Venables? These are the questions that give OU fans so much reason for optimism heading into a new conference.

The culture and identity of the program under Venables is growing and building on top of the foundation set over the past two years. Culture, identity and defense are what brought Venables to Soonerland in the first place.

The 2024 season is fascinating in Norman because there are so may ways this year can go for Oklahoma. First impressions can be lasting impressions, so it’s almost time for the Sooners to announce their presence in the SEC early and often when the season begins.

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Texas FPI ranking accurate, Sooners overrated according to the Oklahoman

One team looks poised for a title run, the other hopes to finish ahead of middling status.

The Football Power Index has been a topic of discussion as the dog days of summer have arrived. The Texas Longhorns are among the top three teams in the country in this computer-generated rankings and No. 2 in the SEC behind SEC-favorite, Georgia Bulldogs.

The only other team to check in ahead of the Burnt Orange is the Oregon Ducks, who had a tremendous offseason adding quarterbacks Dillon Gabriel (Oklahoma) and Dante Moore (UCLA). The team also lured former Texas A&M wideout Evan Stewart to Eugene.

The Longhorns have a projected W-L of 10.0-2.4, while also having the third-best chance to win the College Football Playoff national championship at 11.4%. The top team, Georgia, will travel to Austin for a mid-October showdown at Darrell K. Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium.

When discussing Texas, Justin Martinez believes that their No. 2 FPI ranking is accurate in his projections.

“Texas should adjust well to the SEC with quarterback Quinn Ewers leading the charge,” Martinez wrote. “And even though wide receivers Xavier Worthy and Adonai Mitchell are gone, Alabama’s Isaiah Bond and Houston’s Matthew Golden are now in the mix. Texas’ defense also lost some key contributors, but it reloaded by adding Louisville defensive lineman Jermayne Lole and UTSA linebacker Trey Moore. The Longhorns are set up to compete for an SEC title.”

However, when it came to the Longhorns’ biggest rivals, he was less than impressed where the computers have the Sooners.

“OU has given the keys to sophomore quarterback Jackson Arnold.” Martinez continued, “And while he has a lethal receiver group that features Purdue transfer Deion Burks, he’ll be behind an offensive line that’s made up almost entirely of new pieces. The Sooners will lean on their defense, which boasts returners such as linebacker Danny Stutsman and safety Billy Bowman. But the No. 4 spot is high for a team that’ll likely be closer toward the middle of the pack.”