Football Power Index – Page 13

What odds does ESPN’s FPI give Dolphins in playoff scenarios?

“Playoffs? You kiddin’ me?! Playoffs?”

The infamous Jim Mora line could be especially applicable for the Miami Dolphins given their lack of postseason appearances over the course of the last 20 years (three berths over that stretch and two in the last 19). But that is exactly where we sit with this Dolphins team entering into the 2021 season. Playoffs feel like the expectation for a lot of folks.

Brian Flores may not say it publicly. It flies in the face of the mantra he constantly serves to his team:

One day at a time. One practice at a time. One rep at a time.

But make no mistake: these Miami Dolphins are on the doorstep and the expectation is that the team manages to kick that door down after being left out of the 2020 tournament despite winning 10 games. But don’t just take our word for it: projections for the season have Miami routinely in the mix. The latest release of postseason forecasts comes from ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI). And the Dolphins are firmly in the mix.

How does FPI rank the Dolphins’ playoff probabilities? Better than a coin toss odds to make the playoffs, for starters. Here are FPI’s postseason odds for Miami:

Make the playoffs: 54.1% (2nd in AFCE behind Buffalo)
Win the division: 22.7% (3rd in AFCE behind Buffalo & New England)
Make the divisional round: 27.7%
Make the AFC Championship game: 12.2%
Make the Super Bowl: 5.1%
Win the Super Bowl: 2.3%

As a point of reference, nearly half of the league has less than a 1% chance to win the Super Bowl according to FPI and Miami has better odds of winning the Super Bowl this year than Carolina, Atlanta, New York (Giants), Las Vegas, Philadelphia, Cincinnati, Jacksonville, Detroit, New York (Jets) and Houston do collectively combined in the same measure.

So yes. Playoffs. The Dolphins won’t dare discuss it to the world, but we all see the trend building entering Year 3 of the Chris Grier/Brian Flores era. And anything less would be a disappointment.

ESPN’s Football Power Index ranks Dolphins as 6th best team in AFC

NFL franchises will spend all offseason looking to piece together the right formula of new parts to add to their existing infrastructure; the hope being that they’ll stumble upon the magic blend of luck, skill and strategy to end the season atop the mountain. The science to winning a championship is an inexact one (with the exception apparently being having a Tom Brady on the roster) and as a result you’ll often see a wide array of preseason opinions on the talent and forecast for each team.

One of the most notable projections for an NFL season is ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI), which runs simulations of the season at any point throughout the season and spits out a forecast and a set of power rankings for the entire league.

FPI has not been kind to the Dolphins over the last two seasons — Miami has begun both of the last two years at or near the bottom of the league. But 2021 brings a new season and, in the case of the Dolphins and their FPI forecast, a new expectation.

FPI ranks the Dolphins in their Power Ranking as the 6th best team in the AFC, trailing the Kansas City Chiefs, Buffalo Bills, Baltimore Ravens, Cleveland Browns and New England Patriots. The Dolphins are tied with the projected AFC South winner, the Tennessee Titans.

Should the FPI forecast come into reality, the Dolphins would be due to travel to Buffalo to play the Bills in the Wild Card round of the AFC Playoffs. Every Dolphins fan knows how that trip went in January of this past season. Miami’s aspirations in 2021 certainly include a ticket to the big dance — and if Miami has successfully closed the gap on the Bills in the AFC East, a potential third game between the two would be an exciting proposition.

The Dolphins do have some separation from the fringe playoff contenders in the AFC, too. FPI scores Indianapolis and Pittsburgh at nearly an equal to “average” team. Indianapolis (0.3) and Pittsburgh (0.1) are comfortably off the projection of both Miami and Tennessee (1.2 each). This, of course, is just a projection. It will definitely change. But the fact that these expectations exist for Miami is a good indication of what has the potential to come in 2021.

Here’s where Florida stands in the latest FPI rankings from ESPN

The Gators enter the 2021 season with slightly lower national expectations than they’ve had the past two years under Dan Mullen.

ESPN had to issue a minor mea culpa on its previous Football Power Index rankings, citing issues with the calculation and modeling. As a result, Seth Walder released an update to the previous rankings, though the update didn’t change much about Florida’s preseason situation.

He has the Gators ranked No. 11 in the FPI, an increase in three spots from where they sat in the previous rankings. But it’s still not ideal for UF, showing it on the outside looking in for the College Football Playoff battle. Of course, there’s an entire season yet to be played, but it seems the analytics are wary about the amount of talent the team has to replace.

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With Georgia and Alabama both poised to be very good again, Florida has its hands full in the CFP race, but being in the SEC gives it quite an advantage. According to Walder, the league is all but guaranteed to put one team in (with there being a 94% chance of that happening). It also has the best chances by far to put a second team in at 31%.

The Gators will hope they will be one of the four teams, and there will be a few key games they’ll need to win. Bouts against the Bulldogs and Crimson Tide rank fourth and sixth, respectively, on Walder’s list of games that will be most impactful in the CFP race. UF’s chances of making the playoff are slim to none if it doesn’t win at least one of those games.

Coach Dan Mullen enters perhaps the most crucial season of his Florida tenure in 2021, given all the outgoing talent he has to replace. This will be one of his most challenging coaching jobs yet, and he has set high expectations for himself in Gainesville. Having a breakout year under those circumstances won’t be easy, but UF has the chance to do just that.

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Follow us @GatorsWire on Twitter and like our page on Facebook to follow ongoing coverage of Florida Gators news, notes and opinions.

Where Oklahoma ranks in strength of schedule among the Big 12 Conference

A look at the Big 12 Conference in terms of strength of schedule and where Oklahoma ranks.

There is a lot of expectations surrounding the Oklahoma Sooners football team as we march towards the kickoff of the 2021 season. While there are more than three months until the start, that hasn’t hindered any of the discussions.

With the rankings and preseason power rankings constantly putting Lincoln Riley’s squad near the top, it is hard not to think of what could be. Is this the season that the fifth-year head coach can finally put it all together? Can Riley and company avoid the early season letdowns of the last several years and make a run at No. 1 in the country?

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Year in and year out ESPN has released their Football Power Index rankings for all 130 teams in FBS. Many factors go into these FPI rankings including the strength of schedule (SOS). According to the latest edition, the Big 12 Conference as a whole has the toughest SOS in college football. All 10 teams rank in the top 20.

A full breakdown of every team’s strength of schedule and where they rank nationally:

Where the Big 12 ranked in the ESPN’s preseason Football Power Index

A look at each Big 12 team’s Football Power Index ranking.

With spring wrapping up for some teams around the country, preseason polls are just around the corner. The Football Power Index provided by ESPN is no different. On Tuesday they released their preseason FPI poll for all 130 teams in Division I.

Last season’s final FPI poll finished with the Oklahoma Sooners finishing at No. 4 with the Texas Longhorns right behind them at No. 6, and Iowa State Cyclones at No. 10. This year there were a total of seven conference schools inside the top 25 in the preseason poll.

Sooners Wire looks at each Big 12 school’s ranking with the initial FPI, Oklahoma checks in first with a ranking of No. 2.

ESPN’s preseason FPI projects defensive improvement for UF, offense takes a step back

The preseason Football Power Index for 2021 shows the Gators as the preseason No. 14 team, but it also expects UF’s defense to improve.

Even though it finished with the most losses of any season in the Dan Mullen era, Florida’s 2020 team was a breakthrough squad in many ways. A fanbase ravenous for elite offense was finally satiated as quarterback Kyle Trask led a record-setting passing game.

The Gators finally got over the Georgia hurdle, beating the Bulldogs for the first time since Kirby Smart’s first season at the helm in 2016, and by virtue of that win, it also won the SEC East for the first time under Mullen. Despite a loss to LSU in the regular-season finale, Florida was one game and six points away from a College Football Playoff berth.

But Trask is gone now. Emory Jones steps into the starting role now, and the offense will probably look a lot different stylistically in 2021. At the same time, Florida turns to many talented yet inexperienced players on defense as it tries to fix what was the team’s Achilles Heel last season.

There’s a lot of uncertainty surrounding UF football in 2021, and for that reason, ESPN’s preseason Football Power Index is wary of them. Overall, it comes in at No. 14 and its projected record next season is 8.2-3.9.

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Offensively, the Gators are projected to have a pretty major drop-off, ranking 19th, which is understandable. Even if Jones does well under center, he likely won’t be able to match Trask’s 2020 production through the air, which had them ranking fourth in offensive efficiency per the FPI. UF will likely rely on the run game and the option much more than Mullen’s previous teams have.

However, FPI is much more positive about Florida’s defense heading into 2021. UF ranked just 48th in the final 2020 FPI in defensive efficiency, but its preseason projection comes in at No. 21. The Gators lost a number of starters on defense, but with starters like Mohamoud Diabate, Brenton Cox Jr., Kaiir Elam and Zachary Carter returning, as well as young players who have had positive flashes like Gervon Dexter and Ty’Ron Hopper, this unit has a potential to take a big leap forward next season.

Here’s the full FPI top 25 with projected offensive and defensive rankings for each team.

College Football FPI Rankings

SCHOOL	FPI RANK	FPI RATING	O-RANK	D-RANK
Alabama	1	28.0	5	2
Oklahoma	2	26.6	1	15
Clemson	3	23.5	8	1
Iowa State	4	22.8	3	7
Ohio State	5	20.5	2	42
Texas A&M	6	19.7	9	3
Georgia	7	17.9	12	4
Mississippi State	8	16.2	11	6
Oklahoma State	9	15.0	17	11
Penn State	10	14.9	28	8
Notre Dame	11	14.5	18	14
Texas	12	14.2	15	16
North Carolina	13	13.5	6	50
Florida	14	13.3	19	21
Wisconsin	15	13.3	47	5
Auburn	16	12.9	33	17
Oregon	17	12.8	10	19
LSU	18	12.7	34	18
TCU	19	12.1	43	9
Miami	20	11.9	14	32
Texas Tech	21	11.5	16	29
Ole Miss	22	11.5	4	83
Iowa	23	11.2	68	12
West Virginia	24	11.0	29	27
Indiana	25	11.0	60	10

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Where does LSU sit in ESPN’s current FPI rankings?

LSU sits at 26th overall in ESPN’s football power index with just a 4.5% chance to achieve six wins for the 2020 season.

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The LSU Tigers currently sit at 2-3 overall on the 2020 season.

ESPN updated its Football Power Index on Tuesday, and the Tigers sit at 26th overall. The new ranking drops the Tigers two spots from last week.

The FPI gives the Tigers a win total between 3.9-6.1 to finish out the season.

LSU still has Arkansas, Texas A&M, Ole Miss and Florida on the schedule. Saturday’s match-up with No. 1 Alabama is in jeopardy of being canceled due to coronavirus concerns within the Tigers football program.

In total FPI points, the Tigers have 10.6, which ranks them sixth among SEC teams in the college football FPI.

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ESPN gives LSU just a 0.3% chance to win out. The ranked match-ups against Alabama (potentially), Texas A&M and Florida could boost the Tigers in the rankings later in the year if they win at least one of those games.

Getting to six wins at this point for LSU is going to take a lot. But the FPI gives them a 4.5% chance of achieving six wins, despite the strong schedule that awaits them.

The Tigers have a 0% chance of winning the SEC, making the College Football Playoff and winning the National Championship.

If the Tigers had just two losses up to this point, those chances would improve to above the 0% threshold that the team currently sits at.

With the game against Alabama in jeopardy, the Tigers need a win next week against Arkansas to move them up the FPI rankings. If the Alabama game is played, however, the Tigers are a 28-point underdog according to ESPN.

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Where does LSU sit in ESPN’s updated Football Power Index rankings?

After a blowout 48-11 loss at Auburn, LSU’s chances of winning the SEC fell to 0% and the chances of earning six wins fell to 7%.

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The LSU Tigers fell to 2-3 on the season after the team suffered a 48-11 loss at Auburn last weekend.

Not only did the loss put an end to LSU’s chances at winning the SEC West, it also tossed out their chances of potentially making a run at the College Football Playoff.

The Tigers were ranked No. 14 in the ESPN Football Power Index with a 0.2% chance to win the SEC West.

Following the loss to Auburn, however, the Tigers fell to No. 24.

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The Tigers’ win total now sits at 4.2-5.8 wins, according to the FPI. In terms of potentially winning out, LSU has just a 0.5% chance of making that happen.

Achieving six wins looks gloomy at this point in the season, but the Tigers have a 7.7% chance of winning four of their next five games to get to 6-4 on the season.

That would mean the only other loss comes to either Florida, Alabama, or Texas A&M. The way the team is playing currently, a win against just one of those teams is a slight possibility.

The Tigers’ chances of making the College Football Playoff, making and winning the national championship and winning the SEC outright are all now at 0%.

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The absence of Myles Brennan at quarterback and the lack of play on defense has put LSU in a tough spot.

Through five games, no defending national champion has been under .500 the following season. The Tigers, however, became the first team to make that mark after falling to 2-3 last weekend.

Leave no doubt, LSU still has a legitimate chance at making a bowl game, and that should happen. With the NCAA allowing all teams, regardless of its record, to be eligible for a bowl game, the Tigers still have their sights set on achieving that.

But, it should be noted that the schedule only gets tougher from here, and Alabama comes to Baton Rouge on November 14 looking for revenge from last season.

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The Tigers then play Arkansas, Texas A&M, Ole Miss and Florida to close out the season.

Buckle up Tigers fans, the final five games for LSU could get interesting.

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Where LSU ranks in ESPN’s Football Power Index rankings

Despite being 2-2, the LSU Tigers have a 44.6% chance to earn six wins on the 2020 season according to ESPN.

The LSU Tigers (2-2) travel to the Plains to take on SEC West division rival Auburn on Saturday.

LSU dropped their season opener against Mississippi State before defeating Vanderbilt in Nashville in week two. The Tigers’ third game, at Missouri, saw LSU lose 45-41 before beating South Carolina this past weekend 52-24.

According to ESPN’s football power index, LSU ranks 14th in the country. The Tigers have just a 1.3% chance of winning out, and a 44.6% chance to earn six wins.

The current FPI has the Tigers in the 5-5 range for the program’s win-loss total on the 2020 season.

Given the remainder of the schedule, six wins is possible, although the Tigers have to continue playing well.

With Myles Brennan’s status unknown for Saturday, that chance of achieving six wins can quickly drop depending on if the Tigers defeat Auburn.

LSU has just a 0.4% chance to win the SEC West, with one division loss already to Mississippi State.

In terms of winning the SEC outright, the Tigers have just a 0.2% chance of making that happen for the second straight season.

Ahead of LSU are SEC foes Alabama at No.2 overall, Georgia at No.5 overall and Florida at No. 9 overall.

The Tigers still have the Crimson Tide and the Gators on their schedule. The Tigers host Alabama on November 14 and travel to Gainesville on December 12.

The possibility of LSU winning the national championship from this point in the season is 0%, while it has a slight 0.2% chance to make the College Football Playoff, even with two losses so far.

ESPN’s FPI updates Dolphins’ projected win total for 2020

Miami is all set to get back to action this week, as the Dolphins will play host to the Los Angeles Rams at Hard Rock Stadium for a clash between two teams that both hold postseason aspirations. One team, the Rams, has been there and done that. The other is looking to continue the progress established throughout the first year and a half of a massive rebuilding effort — and a win over the Rams could potentially declare the Dolphins as formally “back”. Right now this is a young team looking to make some noise. But they’ll have to execute.

Some of the projection models for the remainder of the season seem to think Miami can do exactly that.

ESPN’s Football Power Index has updated the record projections for both the AFC and NFC after Week 7 action and after spending the majority of the first month of the season being projected as one of the worst teams in football, the Dolphins suddenly find themselves right in the middle of the pack. FPI takes the individual team rankings and uses them to simulate each remaining game on the schedule as a means of forecasting what the final records (and playoff field) will look like.

For the Dolphins, FPI currently projects the Dolphins to finish the season at 8-8 (rounding up from 7.7 average wins throughout all of the simulations).

That number puts them tied with the Las Vegas Raiders in the AFC standings and one game behind the Indianapolis Colts for the final Wild Card seed in the 2020 playoffs — so if this indeed becomes reality, Miami will have no shortage of meaningful football games ahead of them this fall. With 10 games left, Miami could be one or two lucky bounces of the ball away from extending their season beyond this final 10-game sprint. And, if QB Tua Tagovailoa becomes what the Dolphins clearly feel he can be, they may not need lucky bounces if his assimilation into the starting lineup goes well.

The simulation models are continuing to tweak their expectations for Miami — and the returns are looking promising.