The Florida State Seminoles (5-3, 3-3 ACC) meet the Miami Hurricanes (4-4, 2-2) Saturday at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Fla. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET (ABC). Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Florida State vs. Miami odds, and make our expert college football picks and predictions.
Neither Florida State nor Miami was included in the initial College Football Playoff rankings, and that’s still hard to believe if you grew up in the 1990s and 2000s when this game was IT in college ball. Now, it’s just another game.
FSU can qualify for bowl eligibility with a victory here, which is a big deal, as it hasn’t been in a postseason game since losing the Sun Bowl to Arizona State Dec. 31, 2019.
Florida State snapped a 3-game losing skid with a convincing 41-16 win against Georgia Tech last weekend, covering a 24-point number. FSU is a solid 5-2 ATS across the past 7 games overall.
Miami is a mess, and it hasn’t helped QB Tyler Van Dyke has missed time due to an upper-body injury. While the Canes won 14-12 in overtime at Virginia last weekend without TVD, it is still just 2-4 SU across the past 6 games overall, while failing to cover in 7 straight contests. That includes straight-up losses to Duke and Middle Tennessee at home. I don’t think ‘The U’ is back yet.
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Florida State at Miami odds
Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Wednesday at 2:30 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Florida State -320 (bet $320 to win $100) | Miami +250 (bet $100 to win $250)
- Against the spread: Florida State -7.5 (-108) | Miami +7.5 (-112)
- Over/Under (O/U): 53.0 (O: -108 | U: -112)
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Florida State at Miami and predictions
Prediction
Miami 26, Florida State 23
Moneyline
MIAMI (+250) is worth a roll of the dice, despite it has looked bad lately. Van Dyke has reportedly looked good in practice this week, and all unofficial indications are that the quarterback will be ready to go for this rivalry game.
If Van Dyke has a setback with his UBI leading up to kickoff, that splashes cold water on this pick. But if he plays, Miami is a value too good to pass up.
Against the spread
MIAMI +7.5 (-112) is a good value on its home field against Florida State. Hard Rock Stadium is usually a ghost town, but it fills up for this in-state battle.
Obviously going back to the ML section, it makes a huge difference if Van Dyke plays. However, 7 and a hook is a present as anything can happen in a rivalry game and I’d be confident playing this number even if QB Jake Garcia gets another start under center.
Over/Under
UNDER 53.0 (-112) is the play, as we usually see low totals between these Sunshine State ACC rivals. The Under has cashed in 9 of the past 11 meetings.
More recently, and more importantly, the Under is 4-1 in the past 5 road games for FSU and 5-0 in its last 5 November games.
The Under is hit in 5 of the past 7 games overall for Miami and is 4-1 in its last 5 ACC games.
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