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The Florida Gators (6-5) meet the Florida State Seminoles (2-9) at Doak S. Campbell Stadium Saturday. Kickoff is scheduled for 7 p.m. ET (ESPN2). Below, we look at Florida vs. Florida State odds from BetMGM Sportsbook’s college football odds and make our expert college football picks and predictions.
The Gators extended their win streak to 2 games, both against ranked teams. They upset No. 16 Ole Miss 23-20 as 13-point home underdogs Nov. 23, with the Under (58) hitting. Florida’s defense forced 3 turnovers, including 2 interceptions from Ole Miss QB Jaxson Dart. Florida QB DJ Lagway threw for 180 yards with 2 TDs and 1 INT, while RB Montrell Johnson Jr. rushed for 107 yards and a TD.
Florida State ended its 6-game losing streak with a 41-7 victory over Charleston Southern Nov. 23, pushing as a 34-point home favorite. The Over (44.5) cashed. Freshman QB Luke Kromenhoek threw for 209 yards with 3 TDs, including 82 yards and a score to WR Ja’Khi Douglas. RB Caziah Holmes contributed with 2 rushing TDs in the win.
– Rankings: US LBM Coaches Poll, conducted by the American Football Coaches Association and USA TODAY Sports
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Florida at Florida State odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of college football odds. Lines last updated at 10:15 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Florida -800 (bet $800 to win $100) | Florida State +550 (bet $100 to win $550)
- Against the spread (ATS): Florida -16.5 (-110) | Florida State +16.5 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 45.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Florida at Florida State picks and predictions
Prediction
Florida 42, Florida State 13
Moneyline
PASS.
There is no doubt in my mind that Florida (-800) will take this game in Tallahassee, but I’m not betting 1-to-8. I’ll take my wager to the spread.
Against the spread
BET FLORIDA -16.5 (-110).
Florida coach Billy Napier may have saved his job with recent wins over ranked opponents LSU and Ole Miss, and Florida has covered the spread in 7 of its last 8 games.
In contrast, Florida State is having a disastrous season, losing its last 3 games to Power Four teams by more than 20 points. Its win over Charleston Southern snapped a 6-game losing streak, but it’s not exactly a confidence builder. Not only are the Seminoles losing, but they’re getting blown out.
The favorite has won the last 10 meetings between these teams. While Florida State has won 3 of the last 4 at home against the Gators, Florida is the better team and will be eager to extend its dominance in Tallahassee.
Over/Under
BET OVER 45.5 (-110).
Florida has hit the Under in its last 2 games, but both had totals above 55 points. When the line is in the 40s, Florida games have gone Over.
Florida State has also gone Over in its last 2, both with totals in the mid-40s.
The Gators average 27.6 points and 375.7 yards per game, while allowing 25.5 points and 406.3 yards. Florida’s defense struggles against the run, allowing 161.5 rushing yards per game.
While Florida State won’t exploit this as much as an SEC team might, it still highlights Florida’s defensive weaknesses. With the total set below 50, I’m leaning towards the Over.
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