6 NFL coaches who could be fired in 2024: Robert Saleh, Mike Vrabel join Bill Belichick, Ron Rivera and more

Mike Vrabel and Robert Saleh join the list after difficult 2023s (and one attention craving quarterback).

Black Monday is coming. It won’t be quiet.

The first day of the offseason for the NFL’s non-playoff teams is, traditionally, the end of the road for a handful of struggling head coaches each year. In 2023 — a year already defined by three in-season firings — it could produce a bushel of grim headlines for rebuilding teams and once-proud franchises.

There could be as many as nine teams, more than a quarter of the league, looking for new full-time head coaches in January. The names on the chopping block include a few of the guys we’d at least kinda/sorta expected last year and a handful of the NFL’s most respected sideline generals. So who might wind up getting fired and who’ll definitely be moving on?

Let’s run down Black Monday’s list of candidates, ranging from least to most likely to be get go.

5 NFL coaches who should be fired at the end of 2023: Bill Belichick, Ron Rivera and more

The NFL’s most fireable coaches after Week 15 include some big names.

2023 has been a brutal year for NFL head coaches. Three have already been fired. It’s not yet Christmas.

Brandon Staley was the latest play caller to wind up on the pavers after the Los Angeles Chargers decided giving up 42 first half points to Aidan O’Connell was the straw that broke the camel’s back. Staley’s tenure in LA ended with a 24-24 regular season record, one epic playoff collapse and the unshakeable imprint of a man who perpetually found the exact wrong way to do the right thing.

He won’t be the last. Black Monday, the day after the regular season concludes, is waiting to snatch more souls. It’s possible a quarter of the 32-team league winds up in the market for new full-time head coaches come January. It’s a near certaintly at least two more are on their way out.

Let’s take a look at the most likely candidates, ranging from “Probably won’t get fired but I could see it” to “Oh yeah, he’s done here.”

The NFL’s most fireable coaches: Bill Belichick, why even bother?

Has Sean McDermott hit his ceiling with the Bills? Will the Titans trust Mike Vrabel with a rebuild?

There’s nothing to glean from the end of the New England Patriots’ 2023. If you’re a die hard fan, only disappointment awaits. If you’re a casual observer, any satisfaction gained from a stout defense serves to have its legs kicked out from underneath by a truly inept defense. If you’re watching for sheer trainwreck potential there isn’t even that; the Patriots are horribly bad, but rarely entertainingly so. Mac Jones isn’t getting stiff-armed into oblivion after a horrible lateral-filled game-losing play. He’s just sitting on the bench while Bailey Zappe does his impression of an NFL quarterback.

Thus we’re left with this. A December Thursday Night Football game with Bill Belichick’s team filling the void vacated by the Jacksonville Jaguars. When they make the trip to what was once Heinz Field in Week 14, the Patriots might as well be wearing urine-colored uniforms.

This has pushed Belichick to uncharted waters. The future Hall of Famer had never had back-to-back losing seasons with the Patriots. He’s already locked in to that one thanks to New England’s 2-10 record. He’s never lost more than 11 games in a season and hasn’t even done that since 2000. This is all not only very bad but also a consequence of his own inability to draft viable foundational talent or return Mac Jones to anything resembling his useful 2021 form.

That’s left him facing questions about his future, which is not something we’d ever expected to hear about a man with eight Super Bowl rings but, hooooo buddy, have you watched the Patriots this year? Don’t worry, you’ll get them on Thursday night vs. Mitch Trubisky and the Pittsburgh Steelers. We’ll all be aching for retirement or just generally a life away from football after that.

Of course, Belichick isn’t the only head coach on the hot seat. Josh McDaniels and Frank Reich have already been relieved of their duties. Here are the guys who could join them on Black Monday. This list excludes Belichick since he’ll likely be given the option to retire, but features five others ranked in ascending odds of impending unemployment.

The NFL’s most fireable head coaches: Ron Rivera, it’s time to move on

Brandon Staley, meanwhile, needs to go for his own sanity.

Since we last published this column, we’ve already seen one turkey axed ahead of Thanksgiving.

That was Las Vegas Raiders head coach Josh McDaniels, a man whose ousting sparked a rapid turnaround in Nevada. Behind interim coach Antonio Pierce and fourth-round rookie quarterback Aidan O’Connell the Raiders are 2-1 post-McDaniels after going 9-16 with him.

McDaniels’ dismissal has been vindicated in a short window. He won’t be the only man fired for failing to lead his team to glory in 2023, however.

One or two teams will make knee-jerk decisions. Others will course correct after waiting too long. When Black Monday rolls around, a slate of head coaches will take their buyouts and go home, leaving opportunities for a new class of play callers to take their places.

As we near the two-thirds mark of the regular season, here are the firing frontrunners so far.

The NFL’s most fireable head coaches: Josh McDaniels is daring the Raiders to can him

With Bill Belichick and Sean Payton safe (for now), who’s got the hottest seat among NFL head coaches?

The Las Vegas Raiders are 3-4, and somehow their season feels so much worse than that.

Swapping out Derek Carr for Jimmy Garoppolo had roughly the effect we all expected, as the trade-up from Applebee’s to Chili’s failed to convince fans they were being served anything more than microwaved food. A stellar offensive line effort is being wasted by an unremarkable passing game that’s been forced to throw Brian Hoyer and Aidan O’Connell into the mix due to Garoppolo’s injury concerns. The defense, as is tradition, is a constellation of one or two straggling stars and the cold, dark expanse of dead space behind it.

And the architect of it all is a head coach unable or unwilling to change from a meticulously planned, destined-to-fail playbook.

Behold, Josh McDaniels, once again dazzling NFL fans with his lack of situational awareness and indefatigable commitment to crap. The man who helped Tom Brady attain greatness remains unable to coax the same from regular NFL players, and he’s made that the Las Vegas Raiders’ problem the past season-plus. He’s a leading candidate to lose his job when Black Monday — the first day after the regular season ends — rolls around. Who could join him?

Sean Payton and Bill Belichick, each coming off wins and unlikely to be “fired” fired this winter, reached the exit velocity to escape this list’s gravity … for now. Their spots have been replaced by a couple familiar names when it comes to coaching hot seats. Let’s see who leads the fireability rankings after Week 7 (it’s McDaniels. We all knew this).

The NFL’s most fireable coaches after Week 5: Sean Payton AND Bill Belichick???

Two long-respected coaches are guiding garbage teams. Could they opt out if their teams crash and burn?

The 2023 season has been unkind to some of the league’s most storied head coaches.

Sure, Andy Reid and Pete Carroll are still going strong, but Bill Belichick and Sean Payton? Two wins between them.

The New England Patriots and Denver Broncos have sunk to the bottom of the AFC, plumbing new depths of despair for two future Hall of Fame coaches (Payton is obviously the more divisive of the two when it comes to Canton, but winning a Super Bowl and leading the former doormat New Orleans Saints to prosperity will almost certainly lead him to enshrinement, regardless of how badly he wets the bed in Colorado). Belichick is getting next to nothing from his quarterback room as Mac Jones remains broken. Payton’s rehabilitation job on Russell Wilson has led to empty stats and an awful record.

It’s unlikely either would be fired given their status, but both have put forth the kind of effort that would put a no-name playcaller firmly on the hot seat. Let’s see who else is joining them after Week 5.

The NFL’s most fireable coaches after Week 3: Josh McDaniels, come on down

Josh McDaniels’ love of field goals put him at the top of the list, but he’s got healthy competition in this race toward unemployment.

The NFL is a cold business. Once you start to slip, your job is on the line.

Of course, that doesn’t entirely apply to head coaches. You can be an abject disaster and get fired, of course, but you can also work your way back into a top job regardless of credentials simply by sticking around or appearing interesting. Lovie Smith and Kyle Kingsbury were both fired after losing records as college head coaches and parlayed those struggled into top NFL roles within two seasons. Sure, neither one worked out, but there’s a lot more leeway once you’ve established your name as a play caller than there is as a player.

That leaves plenty of room for failure. Some coaches truly commit to exploring that space. This is a column about them.

By some combination of circumstance and poor decision making, these are the coaches who’ve racked up the most fireable offenses through three weeks. Some have the job security to shake off a rough start. Others may not. So let’s see who has disappointed the most through three games.

NFL Fireable Coach Rankings: Nathaniel Hackett, your offense, woof

The Broncos can’t sit idly by and let this virus infect their 2023 season. Can they?

Week 12 marked the two-thirds mark of the 2022 NFL regular season. That means struggling head coaches have six weeks to fix their teams before Black Monday comes for their jobs.

This season has already forced two coaches out of their offices. Matt Rhule, saddled with some of the league’s worst quarterbacks, wasn’t able to make the Carolina Panthers anything better than terrible and was dismissed. Frank Reich, who was much better at his job despite being stuck with retread veteran passers most of his Indianapolis Colts career, was let go weeks later and replaced by a former offensive lineman with a limited grasp on how timeouts work.

Those two were the first. They won’t be the last. 2022 has more candidates waiting to have their job titles ripped away, with only millions of dollars in yet-to-be-paid contract money to comfort them.

Brandon Staley, thanks to a game-winning two-point conversion vs. the Cardinals that kept his Chargers above .500, avoids the list this time around but remains in consideration. Kevin Stefanski could wind up on this list if his Deshaun Watson-led Browns remain as unimposing as they did in the 11 games Watson missed following more than 20 accusations of sexual misconduct and what the NFL described as “predatory behavior.” Texans coach Lovie Smith is in the conversation as well, though no one knows what the hell Houston is up to right now other than purposefully losing games.

These are the five coaches who are feeling the heat as the 2022 season rolls toward its conclusion.