In a lightweight bout on Saturday’s main card, Tony Ferguson and Charles Oliveira meet at UFC 256 at the UFC’s APEX facility in Las Vegas. The prelims kick off at 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN2/ESPN+, followed by the main card on Pay-Per-View at 10 p.m. ET.
Ferguson (26-4) steps into the octagon looking to use his 2.5-inch reach advantage to keep his counterpart at bay. He also holds a tremendous 5.80 to 3.27 significant strikes landed per minute advantage, although Oliveira (29-8) is a tad more accurate with those punches, ahead 51.60 to 45.40 in significant strikes-accuracy percentage. As far as the ground game, it’s all Oliveira, as he has a stellar 2.61 to 0.49 takedown average, and 2.78 to 1.22 submission average. As such, Oliveira will be looking to get this fight to the canvas quickly, while Ferguson will want to keep it upright while exchanging big blows.
Ferguson lost in a title shot against Justin Gaethje by fifth-round knockout in the main event at UFC 249, losing a shot at Khabib Nurmagomedov in the process. Ferguson would like to get back into the title picture. So, he cannot afford a slip-up here. Each of his past four fights have finished inside the distance, with two KO/TKO wins and a submission victory.
Oliveira has seen all 14 of his fights at the UFC level end via stoppage, with 10 by way of submission (8-2) and four via KO/TKO (2-2). You’ll want to tune in because Oliveira fights are always exciting, win or lose. He is on a seven-bout win streak, including a third-round submission in the main event against Kevin Lee back on March 14 in his most recent showing.
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Tony Ferguson vs. Charles Oliveira: Betting odds, predictions and picks
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:27 a.m. ET.
FERGUSON (-185) is a little bit expensive on the 2-way line, but he is worth the risk. He is looking to get back into the title picture, and a win over Oliveira (+150) will be a nice springboard to get back where he wants to be.
Betting NO (-190): WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE? is also a little on the steep side, but it’s a good play considering Oliveira’s history. Again, all 14 of his UFC fights haven’t needed help from the judges, so that’s a pretty strong sample size to justify this wager.
If you want to get specific, play FERGUSON BY KO/TKO, DQ or SUBMISSION (+155) for the method of victory on the 5-way line. Just know if he wins on points, you will not cash. FERGUSON IN ROUND 2 (+600) and FERGUSON IN ROUND 3 (+950) are also worth small-unit wagers. If he wins in either round, you lose one end, but you’re still well ahead if he ends it in Rounds 2 or 3.
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