Will this touchdown machine get his lost season back on track in Week 8?
Every week, at least one player becomes my fascination of whether he’s worthy of a fantasy football start as a streamer. The decision can be a mental wrestling match, but for the purpose of brevity, only one player can be chosen as my favorite fantasy football gamble of the week.
The players chosen in this series are meant to be fliers for fantasy owners in desperate situations or willing to take an intentional risk. No player is intended to be a lineup lock for guaranteed results, hence the name of the series.
The best fantasy football gamble for Week 8
Tracking my 2023 predictions: 1-6-0
All-time record: 19-37-3
Win: Player produces ≥ 75% of projected fantasy points
Loss: Player produces >75% of projected fantasy points
Tie: Player is ejected, leaves with an injury, or is ruled out after publishing
This year, we’ll also track the accuracy on a percentage basis to show relative results, since sometimes calling a player a loss doesn’t actually hurt gamers. An example would be if a projection narrowly falls short of the 75 percent threshold, the player is still of use in a lineup.
| Wk |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
| % |
55% |
74.7% |
41.7% |
20.8% |
150.3% |
66.5% |
16.1% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Grade |
E |
C |
F- |
F- |
A+ |
D |
F- |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
And here I thought Week 4 was rock bottom!
In Week 7, New York Giants wide receiver Wan’Dale Robinson caught one of his two targets for 22 yards and that was it all she wrote. Darren Waller and Jalin Hyatt led the aerial game in targets, and Robinson posted his worst fantasy stat line since this rookie debut … just the way I drew it up.
My overall success rate of 32.2% would be a respectable MLB career hitting average, but it’s far too low for my liking when it comes to weekly fantasy prognostication, even on total flier calls. This week, the need to take a gamble is much lower with no teams on vacation, and the lack of byes means this recommendation is best utilized for daily fantasy action. However, if you’re in a bind or willing to risk a flex spot, there is merit to such a move.
Williams suffered a hamstring injury in Week 2 that caused him to go on the Reserve/Injured list and cost the veteran four contests before returning in Week 7. He faced a quality Jacksonville defense last Sunday but failed to do much of anything, rushing just five times for 14 yards. He was on the field for a mere 22.2% of the offensive snaps and rushed once in the red zone but not at all inside of the 10-yard line. Williams wasn’t targeted for the second time in three outings.
He heads to Indianapolis for a date with one of the weakest defenses of the running back position, and we can view last week’s limited showing as the 28-year-old shaking off the rust.
[lawrence-related id=483321]
Alvin Kamara overcame a midweek illness but is coming off three straight showings with a 3.6 yards-per-carry average, which is quite a bit below the league average. Now, that’s not all his fault as the offensive line has battled some injuries and tough enough opponents to depress his numbers.
Kamara has seen no fewer than 25 utilizations in each game back from his suspension, and that’s just not a wise floor to maintain. New Orleans needs to get Williams more involved and compartmentalize their respective roles to a greater degree. Game flow, however, plays a pivotal role in that coming to fruition.
The Colts are not likely to put the Saints in an early hole that requires an abandonment of the running game, and that’s going to work in Williams’ favor. As long as this game is within, say, 10 points on the board at any time entering the fourth, New Orleans will pound the ball.
Indianapolis has surrendered massive numbers to running backs, especially in the last five weeks. This is the sixth-easiest opponent to face for rushing yardage per game since Week 2 ended, and only the Carolina Panthers have yielded touchdowns at a higher rate in relation to number of carries faced. One in every 18.6 attempts has found paydirt, and that has come against the fourth-most rushes per game. Six backs have posted at least 15.1 PPR points, and three of them a have scored multiple times on the ground.
My projection: 14 carries, 52 yards, 2 TDs, 1 target, 1 reception, 6 yards (18.8 PPR points)
