Tag: fantasy football playoffs

Targets, Touches and TDs: Week 16

Making sense of Week 15 results and applying lessons to the rest of 2021.

So you weren’t facing Travis Kelce and survived your first-round playoff matchup.

Or, you could’ve started the likes of Tom Brady, Ja’Marr Chase, Joe Mixon and Dawson Knox — who totaled a combined 27 fantasy points — and lived to tell about it.

Perhaps you were simply above the mess that was Week 15 and were one of the fortunate few top seeds who had an opening-week bye.

And maybe you had ridden a now-injured Leonard Fournette, Chris Godwin or a slumping Dak Prescott or Saquon Barkley this far and now are in need of some bench or waiver-wire plug-in help for this week’s semifinals. Or, unfortunately with the untimely COVID-19 surge, there’s almost certain to be the need for additional roster and lineup alterations on the fly.

You’ve come to the right place.

This week’s TT&T looks at 10 of the surprise fantasy standouts from Week 15 and which of these upstart, Johnny-come-latelys you should — or shouldn’t — trust during the championship chase over the next couple weeks.

Here goes, kicking off with those Week 15 surprises that you should …

Get them into your lineups

Atlanta Falcons WR Russell Gage

Week 15: 11 targets-8 receptions-91 yards-TD for 23.1 total fantasy points (sixth among wide receivers through Monday in point-per-reception scoring).
Looking ahead: Gage has been anything but a one-week wonder. Since Week 12, Gage ranks fourth among wide receivers with 29 receptions and 347 yards, is tied for sixth with 36 targets and trails only Cooper Kupp, Hunter Renfrow and Justin Jefferson with 75.7 total fantasy points during that span. In short — in case you hadn’t noticed during the Falcons’ largely anonymous 6-8 season so far — Gage has stepped in for the departed Julio Jones and the on-leave Calvin Ridley as Matt Ryan’s go-to wideout and is producing WR1 numbers on a consistent basis. The Falcons do face the Buffalo Bills (fantasy’s toughest matchup for opposing fantasy wide receivers) in Week 17, but they do get the two-win Detroit Lions at home this coming weekend.

New Orleans Saints defense

Week 15: Four sacks, one interception and fumble recovery in Sunday night’s shocking shutout win over the hosting Tampa Bay Buccaneers for 8.0 total fantasy points (tied for fifth among team D/STs in Huddle Performance scoring).
Looking ahead: Barring a rash of return scores, we fully realize a fantasy defense most likely isn’t going to be the impetus for a fantasy league title, but the New Orleans D closes the regular season with the second-most favorable Week 16-18 slate (Miami Dolphins, Carolina Panthers, Falcons), with the first two of those three also at home, so definitely look to grab the defense that just blanked Brady and the league’s highest-scoring offense.

Detroit Lions WR Amon-Ra St. Brown

Week 15: 11 targets-8 receptions-90 yards-1 TD for 23.5 total fantasy points (fifth among wideouts through Monday)
Looking ahead: After averaging 4.7 targets and 3.5 receptions over his first 11 games, this Lions rookie has had at least 11 targets and eight receptions in each of his last three contests. And since Week 13, St. Brown is second only to Jefferson (70.8) with 63.6 total PPR points, reeling in 26-of-35 targets for 249 yards and a pair of scores. Only Godwin and Jefferson have more targets (39), and only Godwin has more receptions (31) at the position during that span. With tight end T.J. Hockenson having missed the last two games and shelved for the season due to thumb surgery, St. Brown is the unquestioned No. 1 target in the Motor City and deserves a spot in fantasy lineups for any team manager uncertain about one’s starting wideouts.

Solid plug-in options

Buffalo Bills WR Gabriel Davis

Week 15: 7 targets-5 receptions-85 yards-2 TDs for 25.5 total fantasy points (third among WRs).
Looking ahead: Davis got his second start of the season Sunday vs. the Carolina Panthers in place of the injured and inactive Emmanuel Sanders and played a season-high 90 percent of the offensive snaps. Among the Bills, only Cole Beasley (8) received more targets than Davis in the game, and the latter’s two touchdown receptions stretched his game streak with a TD to three. He has four total scoring grabs over that span. Sanders could be back any week, and in Week 16 the Bills do face the New England Patriots, the third-toughest fantasy matchup for opposing wide receivers. With the Pats likely to focus on taking away the Bills’ top pass-catching threat in WR Stefon Diggs, Davis should see some extra-favorable matchups again after already accounting for Buffalo’s lone TD in a 14-10 home loss to New England in cold and brutally blustery conditions in Week 13.

Miami Dolphins RB Duke Johnson

Week 15: 22 carries-107 yards-2 TDs; 1 target-1 reception-20 yards-1 TD (first among running backs through Monday with 25.70 fantasy points (PPR scoring)
Looking ahead: Long viewed as a underutilized asset by some, Johnson garnered one of the rare bell-cow workloads of his seven-year tenure Sunday, posting career highs in rushes (22), rushing yards (107), total touches (23) and total yards (127). But keep in mind this was with regular starter Myles Gaskin just coming off the COVID-19 list, and it was against the New York Jets, the most forgivable fantasy defense for opposing running backs in the league. So even if Johnson suddenly is the new lead back in Miami, fate would have it that no less than the top two toughest fantasy RB defenses await the next two weeks in the Saints and Tennessee Titans.

Detroit Lions RB Craig Reynolds

Week 15: 26 rushes-112 yards; 1 target-1 reception-5 yards for a total of 12.7 fantasy points (14th among running backs)
Looking ahead: With D’Andre Swift (shoulder) and Jamaal Williams (COVID-19 list) out the last two weeks, the unheralded Reynolds has not only emerged as the Lions’ lead back but has looked impressive in doing so, rushing for 195 yards on 37 carries and catching all three of his targets for 35 yards. Only league rushing leader Jonathan Taylor (170) has rushed for more yards than Reynolds in Week 15. The Lions’ immediate schedule is tasty as Detroit draws a pair of bottom-eight fantasy RB defenses (the Falcons and Seattle Seahawks) the next two weeks. So as long as Reynolds remains in the mix with Williams now activated and the slim chance Swift returns to a two-won team, he’s a plug-and-play RB2/flex option.

Buffalo Bills RB Devin Singletary

Week 15: 22 rushes-86 yards-1 TD; 1 reception-10 yards for 16.6 total fantasy points (sixth among running backs)
Looking ahead: Amazingly, this marked Singletary’s high in rushing attempts and matched his best outing in terms of total touches in 42 career games. And it came in a contest where fellow RB Zack Moss was a healthy scratch and Matt Breida only logged only one rushing attempt, giving Singletary a 95.8 percent share of the backfield touches. Prior to this contest, no Bills running back had had more than 16 touches in a game, so perhaps this was an indication of the direction Buffalo wants to go as it entered a critical season-ending, four-game stretch with the AFC East title and the AFC’s No. 1 seed still within reach. The remaining itinerary is favorable as well with the Bills set to face the second-easiest Week 16-18 slate of opposing fantasy RB defenses. The key, though, will be the Bills sticking with Singletary as the lead back and getting him 15-plus opportunities.

Simply one-week wonders

New England Patriots TE Hunter Henry

Week 15: 8 targets-6 receptions-77 yards-2 TDs for 25.7 total fantasy points (third among tight ends)
Looking ahead: This was Henry’s best fantasy outing in more than two seasons and marked only his fourth contest with 13-plus PPR points on the season and first since Week 10. The trouble is, Henry remains too reliant on TDs. He led all tight ends with nine receiving scores on the season through Monday’s games but ranked 19th in targets (58), 16th in receptions (41), and 16th in receiving yards (471). To further illustrate the point, New England rookie QB Mac Jones has thrown 18 TD passes on the season, and half of them have been caught by Henry. You may have struck fantasy gold with the Pats tight end in Week 15, but his other numbers indicate that you’re going to miss often more than you hit when streaming Henry.

Carolina Panthers QB Cam Newton

Week 15: 38 attempts-18 completions-156 yards-1 TD-1 interception; 15 rushes-71 yards-1 TD for a total of 24.9 fantasy points (fifth among QBs on the week).
Looking ahead: This was Cam’s second-best fantasy day since re-signing with the Panthers prior to Week 10, and his 15 rushing attempts and 71 rushing yards marked season highs. Newton, though, is still only completing 54.9 percent of his passes and hasn’t reached 190 aerial yards in any of his five outings and four starts this season. Carolina’s remaining schedule isn’t formidable from a fantasy standpoint as the Bucs (Week 16 & 18) and Saints (Week 17) both rank among the bottom third in most fantasy points allowed to opposing QBs, but Newton is too over-reliant on his 32-year-old legs to be counted on anything more than an emergency QB1 starter or spot QB2 streamer.

Pittsburgh Steelers defense

Week 15: 4 sacks-3 fumble recoveries-1 interception for 12 total fantasy points (second among team D/STs on the week).
Looking ahead: The Steelers D certainly has brand recognition, especially with Defensive Player of the Year front-runner T.J. Watt headlining the unit. But “Steel City D” is more name than game this season, permitting the fourth-most yards (367.5) and 11th-most points (23.9) per game while ranking in a tie for 19th among fantasy defenses with an average of 5.4 fantasy points per outing. So don’t be fooled by the Steelers’ big game Sunday. It was against the turnover-prone Titans, who trail only the Jets (26) with 25 giveaways on the season. Much tougher matchups await the next two weeks in the fantasy playoffs as Pittsburgh faces the Chiefs, who have turned things around of late after a turnover-laden start, and the Cleveland Browns, who currently rank as the fifth-worst matchup for fantasy D/STs. Look elsewhere for a defensive team streamer.

Targets, Touches and TDs: Week 13

Breaking down playoff outlooks for struggling fantasy assets.

The 2021 fantasy football stretch run is upon us with two more regular-season weeks giving way to the start of the postseason in Week 15 in the majority of leagues.

Hopefully, most of your fantasy teams either have locked up a playoff berth or are about to. But if you need to win out to have a shot at one of the final postseason berths in your league (you can’t see it, of course, but I’m raising my hand here), you’re likely counting on several key players to reverse their recent fortunes or shed their disappointment labels just in time to save your season.

With that very scenario in mind, this week’s TT&T looks at some of fantasy’s most disappointing players of November (Weeks 9-12) and assesses their “hope” or “heartbreak” potential for December when we’re not only trying to qualify for the playoffs but make some noise once we get there.

Here goes, starting (as usual) at …

Quarterbacks

Tom Brady, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

November’s numbers: After ranking as fantasy’s best quarterback over the season’s first eight weeks with 26 total touchdowns, five interceptions and an average of 27 fantasy points per game (performance PPR scoring), Brady averaged only 17.2 fantasy points during November (14th among QBs who played in multiple games) with five total TDs and four interceptions in three contests.

December’s outlook: Hope, most definitely

The Bucs rolled up 38 points Sunday in Indy, but touchdown fortune wasn’t with Brady as Tampa Bay scored four rushing TDs in the game after entering the day with eight in their first 10 contests.

Help also is on the way as wide receiver Antonio Brown is due back any week from the ankle injury that has sidelined him since Week 4, and he and Brady can try to rekindle their strong connection, which produced four TD hookups in five games.

Tight end Rob Gronkowski, who only played six snaps in the Bucs’ six games from Weeks 4-10, also looks to be getting healthier at the right time as he had a season-high 123 receiving yards on seven receptions and 10 targets Sunday.

Combine those two with WRs Mike Evans and Chris Godwin and the under-the-radar emergence of RB Leonard Fournette as a dangerous pass-catching back (tied for third among RBs with 51 receptions), and Brady’s weapons take a backseat to none.

Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals

November’s numbers: The Cincy sophomore averaged only 13.6 fantasy points (25th among QBs with multiple starts) with just three total TDs in his three contests this month after averaging 21.9 (10th among QBs) with 20 total TDs during the season’s first eight weeks.

December’s outlook: Hope

Running back Joe Mixon’s November tear (second among RBs with 352 rushing yards and six TDs during the month) has certainly cut into Burrow’s fantasy production, but with a more formidable slate rushing defenses awaiting the Bengals in December, Burrow likely will need to air it out more to keep Cincy in the AFC playoff picture.

Burrow is getting healthier as he moves further away from his 2020 knee injury, and his upper-level cast of weapons (WRs Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd and TE C.J. Uzomah) is still intact as well.

So don’t be surprised in the least to see a Burrow bounce-back next month.

Running backs

Darrell Henderson, Los Angeles Rams

November’s numbers: Henderson totaled the 10th-most fantasy points (point-per-reception scoring) among running backs through the season’s first eight weeks, averaging 17.5 points per outing. In his three games since, Henderson has totaled 34.2 points (11.4 per outing), which ranked 30th at the position in November. And that total was boosted significantly by his 17.3-point game Sunday afternoon in Green Bay.

December’s outlook: Hope

Henderson remains one of the league’s true No. 1 backs, having played 68.8 percent of the Rams’ offensive snaps this season and averaging a healthy 16.9 touches per game.

The Rams’ passing game, meanwhile, is showing late-season signs of slippage and wear and tear, so don’t be surprised if the Rams lean on Henderson even more down the stretch as they look to right themselves from their current three-game losing streak.

Aaron Jones, Green Bay Packers

November’s numbers: Jones returned from a one-game, knee-injury absence Sunday but only had 23 yards on 10 carries without a reception in the team’s 36-28 win over the Rams. Emerging backup A.J. Dillon, meanwhile, totaled 90 yards and a TD on a career-high 25 touches. In three November games, Jones totaled 20.2 PPR points (6.7 per outing) after averaging 18.1 (eighth among RBs) over the Pack’s first eight games.

December’s outlook: More heartbreak

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Green Bay has its bye in Week 13, which does provide extra recovery time for Jones, but it’s brutal timing for Jones’ fantasy teams desperately in need of a win this coming weekend.

Even more concerning, though, is Dillon’s emergence. While Jones was averaging 6.7 fantasy points per game in November (48th among RBs), Dillon was averaging 18.9 (eighth at the position) while averaging 19.3 touches per outing, including 17 total receptions (fifth among RBs) for 171 yards and a TD.

The cat is now out of the bag, and it looks to be a full-blown RB timeshare now in Green Bay. That’s less than ideal for those who were counting on a return to RB1 production down the stretch for Jones.

Wide receivers

Ja’Marr Chase, Cincinnati Bengals

November’s numbers: Over the first eight weeks, this Cincinnati rookie was on a record pace with 38 receptions for 786 yards and seven TDs on 60 targets — good for 159.3 total PPR points and an average of 19.9 per game, ranking fifth among wideouts. His three contests since Halloween, though, has brought a frightening drop-off with 12 catches for 120 yards and one TD on 22 targets — good for all of 30.8 fantasy points and an average of only 10.3 per game (40th at the position).

December’s outlook: Ample hope

Has Chase hit the proverbial rookie wall or have opposing defenses simply caught up?

It sure looks to be some of both as Chase’s targets-per-game average has only declined slightly from 7.5 to 7.3 over the two spans, while his average yards per catch (20.7 to 10.1) and target (13.1 to 5.5) have fallen off precipitously.

But like his quarterback’s December forecast above, there is fantasy optimism. Just realize that WR2 production is likely now the ceiling rather than a sudden return to the elite WR1 numbers Chase was putting up with regularity over the first half of the season.

Brandin Cooks, Houston Texans

November’s numbers: Cooks on Sunday had his best fantasy showing (13.5 points) in a month, but that it only ranked 24th at the position in Week 12 speaks volumes about how disappointing November has been for the Texans’ top fantasy asset. In three games during the month, Cooks has only caught 11-of-21 targets for 119 yards and one TD for a total of 28.9 fantasy points or an average of 9.6 per game (43rd among WRs). In Weeks 1-8, Cooks averaged 15.3 fantasy points per contest to rank 23rd at the position — and that was with struggling rookie Davis Mills starting six of those eight games.

December’s outlook: Slim hope

You would think the 2-9 Texans will need to throw plenty to stay in games down the stretch, but through Week 12, the Texans were averaging only 31.6 passing attempts (27th in the league) and 20.5 completions (26th) per game.

Cooks, meanwhile, is averaging 7.3 targets, 3.7 receptions and 39.7 yards per outing over his last three games, but we (hopefully) should see those averages bump up slightly to WR3 levels during the coming stretch run.

D.K. Metcalf, Seattle Seahawks

November’s numbers: Just when Metcalf’s fantasy general managers were convinced things couldn’t get any worse for the third-year wide receiver, along came Monday night’s game in Washington in which he finished with one reception for 13 yards on four targets — his worst fantasy outing (2.3 points) over the last two seasons. That gave him a total of eight catches for 70 yards and no TDs for 15 fantasy points in three November games — a far cry from the dominant wideout who ranked 10th at the position with an average of 18.1 fantasy points per outing over his first eight games.

December’s outlook: WR2 hope

At a shocking 3-8 — the second-worst record in the NFC — the Seahawks appear headed toward the second playoff-less campaign in QB Russell Wilson’s 10 seasons with the franchise.

Could Seattle throttle things down once it’s officially eliminated from playoff contention? Perhaps, but not likely.

Despite the brutal game for Metcalf on Monday, Wilson did easily look his best since returning from his finger injury absence in Week 10.

And while a return to WR1 production over the next five games is a long shot for Metcalf, it’s not hard to envision a significant reversal of fantasy fortune for the freakishly talented wideout in the coming weeks with a near-full-capacity Wilson and nothing left to lose for the Seahawks.

Tight ends

Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons

November’s numbers: The fourth-overall pick in last spring’s draft looked like he was going to shatter the struggling-rookie-tight-end stigma after averaging 12.5 PPR points over his first eight games. But he’s followed that up with a 7.4 average in November (21st among tight ends), catching only 12 of 25 targets for 177 yards and no TDs in four games.

December’s outlook: Ample hope

Pitts still easily leads the Falcons and ranks sixth among all tight ends with 75 targets, and is 661 receiving yards trail only Travis Kelce (821) and Mark Andrews (761) at the position.

If his relatively low catch percentage (60.0) improves at all while his volume more or less holds steady and his TD production improves (he remains stuck on one), Pitts will jump back into the TE1 conversation real quick.