FSGA National Conference experts draft recap

A pick-by-pick review of The Huddle’s team in a prominent industry league.

The Fantasy Sports and Gaming Association (FSGA) organizes several industry expert leagues, with the 14-team “Champions League,” hosted by RTSports.com, being the crown jewel.

I had the honor of competing in the premier grouping for a decade, making the postseason six of my last eight years, including a close loss in the finals. Understanding the necessity to take calculated risks on draft day is among the reasons for my consistency. Being afraid to take a chance or reach for a player — especially in this 14-team variant filled with excellent drafters — is a fast-track to being demoted from the league. Yeah, demoted. The bottom four teams get relegated to the next league down the chain.

Thus, there is a need to take bold actions at a level unprecedented in arguably any other professional draft. In short, I much rather take a chance reaching for some players I covet than playing it too safe. Of course, there’s a nuanced blend of risk to work into a roster design, but it all comes down to making intelligent gambles.

[lawrence-related id=490205]

All of the FSGA leagues are performance-based PPR formats, and drafting a live league this early in the summer makes for a fun tightrope walk in some regards. Drafting in late June forces gamers to make a larger number of educated guesses on appropriate value of unsettled situations. These leagues do not allow trades, so the draft’s importance is paramount.

We have more than a quarter-century track record of creating fantasy football champs. Sign up for The Huddle today to gain an award-winning edge on the competition!

My aggressive nature didn’t work out in 2022, and I was relegated to the National Conference draft. Last year’s bid to return to the Champions League was off to a hot start, going 6-0 before the wheels came off and I stumbled to an 8-6 finish. A fresh start puts me right back into the same position, so let’s look at the foundation I get to work with in 2024.

Full roster by round

Ovrl Rnd Player Pos Tm
8 1:08 Amon-Ra St. Brown WR DET
21 2:07 Josh Jacobs RB GB
36 3:08 Cooper Kupp WR LAR
49 4:07 Dalton Kincaid TE BUF
64 5:08 Zack Moss RB CIN
77 6:07 Najee Harris RB PIT
92 7:08 Jared Goff QB DET
105 8:07 Courtland Sutton WR DEN
120 9:08 Quentin Johnston WR LAC
133 10:07 Chase Brown RB CIN
148 11:08 Darnell Mooney WR ATL
161 12:07 Dylan Laube RB LV
176 13:08 Will Levis QB TEN
189 14:07 Baker Mayfield QB TB
204 15:08 Miami Dolphins D/ST MIA
217 16:07 Greg Zuerlein PK NYJ

Pick-by-pick review

Check out the entire draftboard here!

1:08) WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, Detroit Lions: I probably would have taken my chances with Justin Jefferson and all that is Minnesota’s QB situation had he made it one more pick, but I’m in no way upset with Brown. He’s a PPR machine in an offense that will continue to feed him on all three downs.

2:07) RB Josh Jacobs, Green Bay Packers: While Jacobs comes with some durability concerns, he’s a workhorse who can contribute in the passing game and is the unquestioned starter in an offense that remains committed to the run. I expect a refreshed Jacobs looking to rebound from a down year.

3:08) WR Cooper Kupp, Los Angeles Rams: Round 3 feels maybe a tad early, but it’s a 14-team PPR format. I’m banking on a return to health and one more top-flight season from the veteran. Puka Nacua‘s emergence surely is a concern, but his numbers weren’t all that impressive when Kupp was on the field a year ago.

4:07) TE Dalton Kincaid, Buffalo Bills: This could be the most pivotal pick of my draft. Kincaid will challenge for TE1 overall in 2024. Round 4 is earlier than I prefer to address the position, and it my prove to cost me dearly at running back. It cost me Rhamondre Stevenson, Alvin Kamara, Aaron Jones and Zamir White as my RB2. I can live with that risk-reward decision.

5:08) RB Zack Moss, Cincinnati Bengals: After missing out on that aforementioned quartet of No. 2 running backs, I turned to Moss – one of my favorite contenders for a breakout season. He has limited talent behind him and flashed in prior stops. Cincinnati will feed him enough touches to post RB3 numbers as long as he’s remotely decent, but midrange No. 2 returns are in play.

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6:07) RB Najee Harris, Pittsburgh Steelers: Many owners prefer Jaylen Warren over Harris, and it’s tough to argue against it, yet I opted for Harris instead. I briefly considered Austin Ekeler here, but Pittsburgh hiring Arthur Smith to run the offense solidified my decision to err on the side of caution after risking my RB2 spot on Moss. Even with Warren’s strong play, Harris managed an RB2 finish in 2024 and is entering a contract year.

7:08) QB Jared Goff, Detroit Lions: I was set on taking Brock Purdy but lost out on him by a couple of picks. It led me to stacking Goff with St. Brown. The Lions return just about everyone of note from last year’s prolific offensive showing, and the drop-off to the next QB on my list was significant.

8:07) WR Courtland Sutton, Denver Broncos: After going top-heavy at WR, I waited until the midpoint to address the position again. Sutton was the final receiver on the board with whom I had any real comfort in selecting as my third, and he isn’t without concerns. Nevertheless, someone has to catch the ball in Denver, even if it’s from a rookie quarterback.

9:08) WR Quentin Johnston, Los Angeles Chargers: A polarizing selection, Johnston gets a fresh start to showcase his skills after a disappointing rookie campaign. The new offensive design isn’t exactly conducive to a pass-heavy script, though the former first-rounder has a legit quarterback and a largely unproven cast of receivers to battle for the top spot.

10:07) RB Chase Brown, Cincinnati Bengals: This one is purely a handcuff selection. Let’s say I’m wrong about Moss breaking out … that creates a fine opportunity for Brown to exploit. The 2024 fifth-round selection displayed some chops as a rookie, albeit in extremely limited work (58 touches), and Brown has little behind him in the way of competition.

11:08) WR Darnell Mooney, Chicago Bears: Meh. Mooney’s best days are behind him in all likelihood, though he can muster a few flex fill-in performances with Kirk Cousins at the helm. There’s a small chance for a regular role if Drake London were to get injured, and another Kyle Pitts letdown isn’t unfathomable.

12:07) RB Dylan Laube, Las Vegas Raiders: Laube injects youth into my offense and offers a pass-catching option not found ahead of him on the depth chart in Vegas. He has turned heads in OTAs and makes for a fine flier this late in a 14-teamer.

13:08) QB Will Levis, Tennessee Titans: Levis has all the physical tools to excel. One of my favorite sleepers, the second-year pro has upgraded receivers and a quarterback-friendly offense being installed. Both running backs and the primary tight end can make splash plays in the passing game, too. Levis’ upside is too good to pass up.

14:07) QB Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Here’s where things get a little funky! Levis shares a bye week with my starter, Goff. Had it been a late-season bye I wouldn’t have batted an eye, but the Week 5 hiatus makes things a little precarious, hence the selection of a third QB. Mayfield, who faces Atlanta in Week 5, gives me added insurance if Levis struggles early on and/or Goff gets hurt. The takeaway here is embracing flexibility with your draft plans can lead you down unforeseen but profitable paths.

15:08) D/ST Miami Dolphins, Miami Dolphins: Despite lingering injuries and notable personnel losses across on three levels, Miami is a decent pick after waiting on the position in a 14-team draft in which owners started drafting DTs in the 12th and had seven off the board by Round 14. The early-season schedule is acceptable.

16:07) PK Greg Zuerlein, New York Jets: The last kicker off the board, Zuerlein is entirely expendable if he struggles early in the year. New York should be much more capable on offense with a healthy Aaron Rodgers. The big-legged booter offers distance value and is automatic inside 40 yards.

Roster composition

Pos Player Team Bye
QB Jared Goff DET 5
QB Will Levis TEN 5
QB Baker Mayfield TB 11
RB Josh Jacobs GB 10
RB Zack Moss CIN 12
RB Najee Harris PIT 9
RB Chase Brown CIN 12
RB Dylan Laube ® LV 10
WR Amon-Ra St. Brown DET 5
WR Cooper Kupp LAR 6
WR Courtland Sutton DEN 14
WR Quentin Johnston LAC 5
WR Darnell Mooney ATL 12
TE Dalton Kincaid BUF 12
PK Greg Zuerlein NYJ 12
DT Miami Dolphins MIA 6

FSGA National Conference experts draft recap

A pick-by-pick review of The Huddle’s team in a prominent industry league.

The Fantasy Sports and Gaming Association (FSGA) organizes several industry expert leagues, with the 14-team “Champions League,” hosted by RTSports.com, being the crown jewel.

I had the honor of competing in the premier grouping for a decade, making the postseason six of the past eight years, including a close loss in the finals. Among the reasons for my consistency is understanding the necessity to take calculated risks on draft day. Being afraid to take a chance or reach for a player — especially in this 14-team variant filled with excellent drafters — is a fast-track to being demoted from the league. Yeah, demoted. The bottom four teams get relegated to the next league down the chain.

Thus, there is a need to take bold actions at a level unprecedented in arguably any other professional draft. In short, I much rather take a chance reaching for some players I covet than playing it too safe. Of course, there’s a nuanced blend of risk to work into a roster design, but it all comes down to making intelligent gambles.

Unfortunately, my aggressive tendencies came back to haunt me last year, and I drafted a clunker that couldn’t be salvaged via the waiver wire. These leagues do not allow trades, so the draft’s importance is exaggerated.

We have more than a quarter-century track record of creating fantasy football champs. Sign up for The Huddle today to gain an award-winning edge on the competition!

All of the FSGA leagues are performance-based, PPR scoring format, and drafting a live league this early in the summer makes for a fun tightrope walk in some regards. Drafting even into mid-July — mind you, this used to take place a month prior — forces gamers to make educated guesses on appropriate value of unsettled situations.

Since I was booted from the top league, my team now will compete in the “National Conference” league and have a chance to win my way back into the Champions group next year.

Full roster by round

Ovr Rnd Pos Player Tm
8 1:08 RB Bijan Robinson ATL
21 2:07 WR Garrett Wilson NYJ
36 3:08 WR Tee Higgins CIN
49 4:07 RB Alexander Mattison MIN
64 5:08 TE Kyle Pitts ATL
77 6:07 WR Kadarius Toney KC
92 7:08 RB Brian Robinson Jr. WAS
105 8:07 QB Aaron Rodgers NYJ
120 9:08 WR Van Jefferson LAR
133 10:07 WR Romeo Doubs GB
148 11:08 RB Tyjae Spears TEN
161 12:07 QB Jared Goff DET
176 13:08 RB Zamir White LV
189 14:07 WR Darius Slayton NYG
204 15:08 D/ST Miami Dolphins MIA
217 16:07 K Jake Moody SF

Pick-by-pick review

1:08) RB Bijan Robinson, ATL: I’m pleased Robinson was available at this point of the draft, and I expect a dual-threat role from the coveted rookie. Atlanta’s line is legit, and quarterback Desmond Ridder will do enough to keep defenses honest. I prefer to gamble on a breakout season from a talented rookie in a run-heavy offense rather than hope a proven veteran can hold up once again to the rigors of being a workhorse back (think Jonathan Taylor, Saquon Barkley, Josh Jacobs).

2:07) WR Garrett Wilson, NYJ: I entertained the idea of drafting Derrick Henry, but the 14-team format compelled me to acquire a true No. 1 receiver, and I didn’t see that being likely if I waited until Round 3. The decision paid off as no one else was left when I picked next that I would have offered top-10 possibility.

3:08) WR Tee Higgins, CIN: Higgins is an excellent No. 2 target, and he’s a surefire WR1 if Ja’Marr Chase were to miss time again. I probably would have gone with Terry McLaurin had he not been selected one pick before me, and the other consideration was Detroit Lions rookie running back Jahmyr Gibbs.

4:07) RB Alexander Mattison, MIN: This one could be a pivotal selection as my RB2. Mattison takes over as the primary back following Dalvin Cook‘s release and has basically no proven competition for touches. I’m lukewarm on Minnesota’s offensive line, but any back with a chance for this kind of volume in an offense that has a dangerous passing game should produce at least No. 2 results.

5:08) TE Kyle Pitts, ATL: Maybe I’ve invested too heavily in Atlanta’s offense, but I expect this to be the surprise team of the NFC and perhaps the entire league. Pitts returns to health and should offer top-five results at the position. I wouldn’t be shocked if he challenges for the No. 2 spot behind Travis Kelce, either. With Drake London being the only other proven option, Pitts should shine. The other option was to wait and target Dalton Schultz later, which would have offered more value, but I preferred getting a share of Pitts after having already landed the Houston tight end in several drafts.

6:07) WR Kadarius Toney, KC: A true gamble, especially this early, Toney was the best boom-or-bust option remaining with enough upside to challenge for a WR1 finish. He has the talent and game-changing athleticism and is in a prolific offense with an elite quarterback, so the rest is on Toney to stay healthy.

[lawrence-related id=477731]

7:08) RB Brian Robinson Jr., WAS: Robinson was the last remaining back I was comfortable with as a No. 2 in case one of my starters went down for a long stretch. While he’s far from being a lock, there’s an opportunity, and Antonio Gibson hasn’t impressed me. The offensive line is shaky, and there’s a questionable quarterback situation, but Robinson gets a full offseason to make his mark.

8:07) QB Aaron Rodgers, NYJ: I agonized over Deshaun Watson vs. Rodgers with this pick. I’m confident in the former Green Bay star’s situation. The line is decent enough, his weapons are deep and diverse, and Rodgers has a chip on his shoulder. The 39-year-old not staying healthy is my biggest fear for his outlook.

9:08) WR Van Jefferson, LAR: A fourth receiver who has some upside for more, Jefferson was one of the few remaining options who jump out as a viable gamble for WR3/flex worth. LA has basically just TE Tyler Higbee behind Cooper Kupp in the aerial pecking order, which bodes well for the now-healthy Jefferson to pick up where he left off in 2021 prior to an injury-dampened 2022 flop.

10:07) WR Romeo Doubs, GB: Jordan Love has to throw the ball to someone, and Christian Watson can’t do it all alone. Doubs is an interesting possession receiver who could threaten 1,000 yards and should be good for roughly six or so TD grabs. As a fifth wideout, one could do much worse.

11:08) RB Tyjae Spears, TEN: I missed out on my Robinson handcuff of Tyler Allgeier by eight picks, which stinks, but Spears is an exciting consolation prize. He’s already in the No. 2 hole behind Derrick Henry, an aging workhorse with an absurdly high odometer. One serious injury striking down the king and Spears could be a weekly starter.

12:07) QB Jared Goff, DET: Goff is good for a handful of starts if Rodgers is absent, and I wouldn’t be in a terrible spot if the former LA Ram had to enter my lineup for extended action. There’s nothing sexy about this one, but if Rodgers goes down, Goff is at least stable.

13:08) RB Zamir White, LV: While White is among the top handcuff options in the league, he’s also a strong standalone RB5 since Josh Jacobs unhappy with his contract coming off a massive workload.

14:07) WR Darius Slayton, NYG: The entire receiving corps situation is a mess in New York, and Daniel Jones is far from a complete product as a passer. With that, Slayton is established as a capable vertical weapon but could see Jalin Hyatt cut into his work during the year. Either way, this pick is all upside with no risk.

15:08) Def/ST Miami Dolphins, MIA: This defense has dramatically improved in the offseason, and while the division will be a slog, matchups with New England, Denver, Carolina, Las Vegas, Washington and Tennessee present strong opportunities for success.

16:07) PK Jake Moody, SF: Rookie kickers rarely fare well, yet here we are … the offense is the main reason for choosing Moody. He has kicked several clutch field goals in college (8-for-8 on game-winning kicks in the last two years). His leg isn’t typically regarded as being huge, but a 59-yarder in the 2022 national semifinal shows he has plenty of distance. If it turns out that I’m wrong on him, he’s a kicker, after all.

Roster composition

Pos Player Team Bye
QB Aaron Rodgers NYJ 7
QB Jared Goff DET 9
RB Bijan Robinson ATL 11
RB Alexander Mattison MIN 13
RB Brian Robinson Jr. WAS 14
RB Tyjae Spears TEN 7
RB Zamir White LV 13
WR Garrett Wilson NYJ 7
WR Tee Higgins CIN 7
WR Kadarius Toney KC 10
WR Van Jefferson LAR 10
WR Romeo Doubs GB 6
WR Darius Slayton NYG 13
TE Kyle Pitts ATL 11
PK Jake Moody SF 9
DT Dolphins MIA 10

Recapping 2021 FSGA fantasy football experts draft

Explaining the rationale behind some of my picks in the industry championship league.

The Fantasy Sports and Gaming Association (FSGA) organizes several industry expert leagues, but the most prestigious one of all was held Monday, July 5. It featured 14 of the industry’s most prominent companies represented in the “Champions League” via an online draft hosted by RTSports.com.

We normally congregate in person, but the pandemic-induced online format from last year was carried over into 2021. SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio thoroughly covered the event once again, and subscribers can catch up on any missed commentary in the station’s online archives.

I’ve had the pleasure of competing in the premier grouping for approximately a decade now, making the postseason five of the past six years, including one appearance in the finals. Among the reasons for my consistency is understanding the necessity to go take calculated risks on draft day. Being afraid to take a chance or reach for a player — especially in this 14-team variant — is a fast-track to being demoted from the league. Yeah, demoted. The bottom three teams get relegated to the next league down the chain.

Thus, there is a need to take aggressive actions at a level unprecedented in arguably any other professional draft. In short, I much rather take a chance reaching for some players I covet than playing it too safe. Of course, there’s a nuanced blend of risk to work into a roster design, but it all comes down to taking intelligent gambles.

Last year, I was roundly criticized for all but one of my first five picks (Derrick Henry, Devin Singletary, Raheem Mostert, D.K. Metcalf, and Diontae Johnson respectively). Singletary was an dumb choice, for sure, but I also didn’t expect Stefon Diggs to completely dominate the target share. Henry and Metcalf worked out just fine, and Mostert flashed promise in between injuries. Johnson was a sound contributor based on his volume.

Long story short, the team finished 8-5 and in fourth place. Not great, not terrible, either. But without a title, it’s merely an anecdote to share about not getting caught up in the opinions of other people.

The league is a performance-based, PPR scoring format, and drafting a live league this early in the summer makes for a fun tightrope walk in some regards. There are several situations that have yet to unfold (Deshaun Watson, Aaron Rodgers, Zach Ertz, etc.), forcing gamers to take an educated guess on appropriate value.

My team drafted out of the ninth spot, which, I must say, felt like being trapped in a barren wasteland at times. Nevertheless, the team should be competitive, and with a few breaks, it could once again surpass the expectations of its critics.

Rnd
Name
Pos
Team
Bye
7
Tom Brady
QB
TB
9
13
Ben Roethlisberger
QB
PIT
7
1
Nick Chubb
RB
CLE
13
2
D’Andre Swift
RB
DET
9
6
Trey Sermon
RB
SF
6
8
J.D. McKissic
RB
WAS
9
20
Chuba Hubbard
RB
CAR
13
3
Amari Cooper
WR
DAL
7
4
Cooper Kupp
WR
LAR
11
5
D.J. Chark
WR
JAC
7
9
Henry Ruggs III
WR
LV
8
12
Amon-Ra St. Brown
WR
DET
9
11
Jared Cook
TE
LAC
7
14
Anthony Firkser
TE
TEN
13
16
Daniel Carlson
PK
LV
8
15
Miami Dolphins
DEF
MIA
14

I’ll address the controversial picks rather than going line-item for 16 rounds worth of selections.

  • Depending upon one’s perspective, I may not have learned my lesson with the Singletary failure. Taking D’Andre Swift over DeAndre Hopkins drew flak, and that’s quite all right. Yes, Hopkins was the safer and “smarter” pick in the eyes of most people. In fact, he was the only other player I seriously considered in this spot. The primary reasoning for going with Swift: 1) I wasn’t keen on what would be left for my RB2 in a PPR since Nick Chubb is barely involved in the receiving game, 2) Swift may catch a ton of passes in this WR-starved offense, and 3) Receiver is so deep that I wasn’t too concerned about building a capable corps. RB Jamaal Williams will be a factor, but I’m confident in this Anthony Lynn-led system finding more than enough utilizations to go around.
  • Amari Cooper … not really controversial, per se, but he isn’t exactly an ideal WR1 consideration. I strongly pondered Julio Jones here, and Mike Evans almost was the choice. Tampa has as many, if not more, weapons as Dallas, and for as good as CeeDee Lamb will be, I’m banking on Cooper remaining Dak Prescott’s favorite target for one more year.
  • The choice that drew the most criticism from my roster easily was that of San Fran rookie running back Trey Sermon in Round 6. First of all, in a 14-teamer, we’re basically a full round later at this point when compared to a draft with only 12 squads. More importantly, the 49ers will run a metric boatload of times in 2021, and Sermon is one Mostert injury away from being a workhorse. The offense will share the carries, but Jeff Wilson Jr. (knee) is already slated to miss time, possibly into the regular season, and Mostert has yet to show he can hold up for more than a few spurts of meaningful touches. Sermon is built for this zone-blocking plan, running behind one of the best lines. As radio host John Hansen said on Sirius, this one is a swing for the fences after taking a mixed bag of risk with my first two RBs.
  • So many quarterbacks rarely go as early as they did in this draft. I gave much consideration to spending a fourth-round choice on Kyler Murray — my top-rated QB — until he went a few picks before my selection. Once that happened, I knew it would be a waiting game for the right moment. In Round 7, admittedly still earlier than I wanted, Tom Brady was the choice. Dallas Goedert went one slot ahead of me, which caused the pivot to TB12. Matthew Stafford and Joe Burrow were my other two targets. I wagered on Brady’s age not catching up with him, mostly due to his immensely talented cast of receiving outlets as being the separating factor in a healthy season. Aside from Father Time getting his way, there is far less to go wrong with Brady than the other duo.
  • Henry Ruggs was a risk-reward decision. The pool of wideouts with potential to consistently enter my line was dwindling, and Ruggs is poised to shake off last year’s disastrous season. Should he struggle once again, we’re talking about a WR4 in Round 9.
  • Chuba Hubbard wasn’t exactly a rock star in college last year while following up his explosive 2019 showing, so there was some chatter about whether he was a worthy Round 10 selection. Even thought I had already invested in a rookie RB in the sixth, Hubbard didn’t scare me off, largely thanks to the opportunity he could see if injury once again derails Christian McCaffrey’s season.
  • Although uncontroversial, I want to address the selections of Detroit receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown and Tennessee tight end Anthony Firkser. After drafting Jared Cook as my TE1, grabbing a second tight end was a borderline necessity. Cook should rebound in LA by having already a strong grasp on the system, but he’s also getting up there in years. Firkser is one of my favorite sleeper targets, provided the Titans don’t trade for Ertz. As for St. Brown, the Lions currently have TE T.J. Hockenson and Swift as the only two players really in contention to challenge for the team lead in receptions. St. Brown could surprise, and he showed as a true freshman at USC that he was quite capable of learning on the fly.

Fantasy championships tend to be won in the middle and later rounds. They can be lost in the early portion of drafts, of course, but I hedged enough bets in this one to be comfortable with my chances to make it to the postseason for the third straight year.

Recapping FSGA fantasy football experts draft

Explaining the rationale behind some of my picks in the industry championship league.

Haters gonna hate.

Two things should be abundantly clear to every fantasy sports professional: You’re wrong almost as much you’re right in reality, and you’re wrong all of the time in the eyes of social media pundits. It’s fine. Having thick skin is a prerequisite for survival in this industry. A long-running rule of thumb is that being right 60 percent of the time is considered good. In other words, we’re in the same boat as meteorologists.

While being wrong roughly four out of 10 times isn’t ideal, it also illustrates the disparity in accuracy from the general public to people doing prognostication for a living. That’s not a brag but a fact of life in this business. That’s also not to say brilliant fantasy minds and competitors don’t exist outside of the sphere of people fortunate enough to do this for a living. But it’s super common to hear — especially when drafting in the middle of June — how wrong our picks are and what we should have done instead. Par for the course … Yet, every so often, someone’s critiques open our eyes to reevaluating a situation — or at least they should if we’re being open-minded.

That’s a long-winded way of saying, “Keep the hate coming!” I won’t pretend to speak for everyone, but it’s motivating, since millions of people would happily trade in their day jobs for mine, and I’m never going to let myself lose sight of it.

[lawrence-related id=451932]

Where does that miniature rant come from? The feedback to my Fantasy Sports and Gaming Association (FSGA) draft results.

Monday, June 22, witnessed 14 of the industry’s most prominent companies represented in an online draft. We normally congregate in person. I’ve been in this league for roughly a decade now, and one of the first things I learned was the need to take calculated risks at a level unprecedented in any other professional draft. In addition to this being a 14-teamer, comprised by some of the brightest minds in fantasy, the loser goes home. This year, the bottom three teams get the boot.

In short, I much rather take a chance reaching for some players I expect to break out and then fail miserably instead of finishing in the middle of the pack with an uninspired effort.

In 2019, I hated my draft and was roundly panned for it. I had no business being in the playoffs if we were grading on an immediate post-draft reaction. That team finished as the second-highest scorer and landed in second place, earning a first-round bye week. While it was bounced in the second round after a flat showing, that lineup scored the most points of all teams during the bye and would have beaten all teams over the rest of the playoffs. Again, that’s also not a brag. It’s an illustration that the season is so much more than the aesthetics of a draft result in June. Or July. Or August and September.

It’s easy (and fun) to get caught up in the immediate reactionary takes about a roster. However, luck avoiding devastating injuries, astute inseason waiver manipulation (no trading in this league), and — arguably most important of all — optimal lineup decisions matter so much more. Sometimes we all draft a team that is so dang good we get to skate through the regular season, but anyone who has played this game long enough knows how rare that tends to be when playing against 13 other professionals.

May team out of the eighth spot:

Overall Pick Player Team Pos
8 1.8 Derrick Henry TEN RB
21 2.7 Devin Singletary BUF RB
36 3.8 Raheem Mostert SFO RB
49 4.7 D.K. Metcalf SEA WR
64 5.8 Diontae Johnson PIT WR
77 6.7 Russell Wilson SEA QB
92 7.8 Rob Gronkowski TAM TE
105 8.7 Jamison Crowder NYJ WR
120 9.8 Zack Moss BUF RB
133 10.7 Hunter Renfrow LV WR
148 11.8 Jace Sternberger GNB TE
161 12.7 Chris Thompson JAC RB
176 13.8 Drew Lock DEN QB
189 14.7 Larry Fitzgerald ARI WR
204 15.8 Tampa Bay Buccaneers TAM Def/ST
217 16.7 Ka’imi Fairbairn HOU K

I’ll address the controversial picks rather than going line-item for 16 rounds worth of selections.

  • Devin Singletary drew a bunch of criticism for his lack of scoring prowess, Josh Allen’s role around the end zone, and the drafting of running back Zack Moss. I handcuffed Moss to Singletary to be safe, even though I really don’t like the idea of rookies in 2020 due to the abbreviated offseason. At least this is the one position where the transition may not be as daunting. If Allen is supposed to become a better quarterback in Year 3, coinciding with the addition of Stefon Diggs, Singletary stands to benefit. If the Bills are expected to be the favorite in the AFC East, the second-year back is going to be an integral part of it. I’ll take may chances reaching slightly that he’s closer to a strong RB2 in PPR than not. I wasn’t keen on a receiver, and none of the other RBs made more sense from an upside perspective.
  • Some criticism was levied for the D.K. Metcalf selection, and while I can see merit in the concerns, this, in part,, is the result of going three straight running backs to open the draft. I felt strongly enough in Raheem Mostert being a weekly lineup fixture as a flex, meaning wideouts could be thinner and less important. We saw elite-level flashes from Metcalf last year, and I’m confident he’s the real deal. I briefly considered Adam Thielen, but his lack of talent around him leaves me nervous, and his best play is behind him. Keenan Allen may look more respectable as a WR1 than Metcalf in a PPR, yet I have no confidence in the LA quarterback situation delivering weekly results. I then took a gamble that one of Robert Woods, D.J. Chark, Terry McLaurin or T.Y Hilton would be available in Round 5. I was wrong, which led me to the next (and most) controversial pick:
  • Diontae Johnson has soared up draft boards in recent weeks. While some gamers may not be comfortable with him as either a WR2 or as a fifth-round choice, I’m perfectly fine with both in a 14-teamer. I was determined to not miss out. Johnson will outscore JuJu Smith-Schuster and is going to be the No. 1 receiver in Pittsburgh. Not only that, he’ll emerge as a leading candidate for the top fantasy breakout player in 2020. Had I landed one of those aforementioned receivers, I then would have aimed for Johnson in Round 6. I reached for Chris Godwin last year and was rewarded. I don’t mind reaching for a guy I strongly feel will finish in the top 25 at his position.
  • The selection of Rob Gronkowski was questioned as being too early by many of the people providing feedback. I truly get the risk factor in drafting him, but there’s also considerable upside. I wrote for this very site that Gronk has bust factor written all over him, and much of it is due to injury history. Here’s to hoping the year away helped get his body right. It’s hard to ignore the chemistry with Tom Brady when looking around a talent-laden Tampa offense. We objectively have no idea if TB12 has any connection with Mike Evans and Godwin, regardless of how talented those guys are in their own right. The tight ends who immediately came off the board in the next round or so following my Gronk choice: Hayden Hurst, Tyler Higbee and Jared Cook. Those three guys are not less risky than the goofball I drafted. The final thought: I drafted Green Bay’s Jace Sternberger as Gronk’s backup, and the young tight end is another one of my favorite sleeper targets.
  • Chris Thompson is the only pick I’m not all that crazy about. He’s a boo-boo away from IR at all times, and the Jaguars have plenty of weapons around him to lessen the chance the former Washington Redskins pass-catching back is heavily involved. He is reunited with Jay Gruden, and there’s zero chance the coaching staff wants Leonard Fournette catching 76 passes again. The idea here is hopefully I don’t have to use Thompson, but if I do, I am comfortable with the situation.