Tag: fantasy football DFS

Fantasy football gamble of the week: Week 14

One slumping running game faces a defense that seems to think its job is to allow RBs to run wild.

Every week, at least one player becomes my fascination of whether he’s worthy of a fantasy football start or bench. The decision can be a mental wrestling match, but for the purpose of brevity, only one player can be chosen as the fantasy football gamble of the week.

The best fantasy football gamble for Week 14

Tracking my predictions: 4-8-1
Win: Player produces ≥ 80% of projected fantasy points
Loss: Player produces >80% of projected fantasy points
Tie: Player is ejected or leaves with an injury

I made the reference last week that it felt like I was “on tilt” as a reference to when poker players spiral with losing hand after losing hand. Whether it be chasing cards or simply a bad beat, there’s an easily recognizable crossover into making fantasy forecasts.

Some of the picks, like last week’s New York Jets WR Denzel Mims vs. Las Vegas Raiders are rational, sound gambles, and the “cards” simply didn’t win the hand. The foundation to the selection was rock-solid, and it ended up being the struggling Jamison Crowder who had the prolific fantasy day.

Those things happen. I’d rather be on the right track and still wrong than whiff by a mile with a total reach, which has happened more than once in this stomach-turning skid…

Cincinnati Bengals RB Giovani Bernard vs. Dallas Cowboys

Gamers may immediately see the matchup of facing Dallas as a “no $#!+, Sherlock” … and I get that sentiment. The Cowboys have been a cupcake opponent much of the year. But Bernard also has struggled mightily, and comparatively, in the last month, and he has fallen out of favor when it comes to earning the trust of fantasy owners.

In the last four outings, the veteran back has rushed for no more than 32 yards in any game, and his receiving work has not been much better. Despite seeing an average of five targets a game, none of the 12 receptions have scored, and Bernard has generated 37 yards or fewer in each of those appearances.

One major factor working against Bernard has been Cincy’s lack of respectable quarterback play since Joe Burrow (knee) went down. Versus Dallas’ horrendous pass defense, even Brandon Allen should look competent. The Bengals also have a more powerful back Samaje Perine available to steal work around the stripe, not to mention a passing-game philosophy that likes to throw it inside the 10-yard line.

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The Cowboys have been among the easiest defenses to exploit, so something here has to give. Gamers should bank on Bernard coming through before expecting Dallas to buckle down. In the last four games, five rushing scores have come at a rate of once every 19.8 carries, which is highly favorable. The position has averaged five catches in that time. Only Houston has afforded more yardage on the ground than the 136.5 a contest Dallas has permitted.

We’ve seen a defense that had more easily been exploited by wideouts go from being a matchup that was slightly favorable (10 percent better than average) to among the best in recent weeks, topping out at 61.6 percent softer than average in the last three games. Ten different performances with double-digit PPR returns have come against Dallas.

My projection: 56 rushing yards, 4 receptions, 29 receiving yards, 1 TD (18.5 PPR)

Fantasy football gamble of the week: Week 13

This New York Jet has an opportunity to help fantasy football lineups soar in Week 13.

Every week, at least one player becomes my fascination of whether he’s worthy of a fantasy football start or bench. The decision can be a mental wrestling match, but for the purpose of brevity, only one player can be chosen as the fantasy football gamble of the week.

The best fantasy football gamble for Week 13

Tracking my predictions: 4-7-1
Win: Player produces ≥ 80% of projected fantasy points
Loss: Player produces >80% of projected fantasy points
Tie: Player is ejected or leaves with an injury

It has been a rough go of it for yours truly over the last five weeks … after such a promising start to the year, I’ve flubbed five consecutive picks, with the most recent being San Francisco TE Jordan Reed at Los Angeles Rams. There’s a scenario poker players call going on tilt … this feels like the fantasy football prognostication version of it.

If this were baseball, I’d be considered a competent batter, but in the land of giving advice about a fake lineup, I’m quickly turning into a chump. haha … It comes with the territory, and it’s time to shake off the slump by getting one right in Week 13!

New York Jets WR Denzel Mims vs. Las Vegas Raiders

The rookie receiver has played in only five games to date, and we’re starting to see flashes of why the Jets invested a second-round pick on the vertical threat. He has averaged at least 15.5 yards per catch in each game since debuting in Week 7, and the Baylor product has seen eight targets in three straight outings.

One thing that has me most intrigued by Mims is he has been quarterback- and matchup-proof thus far. He has produced respectable figures against feeble secondaries and more domineering types. He has survived multiple Sam Darnold injuries that led to Joe Flacco getting under center, and the productivity hasn’t missed a beat.

In three consecutive appearances, Mims has produced at least 10.1 PPR points on an awful team that is looking for just about anyone to step up. He has flown under the radar because of this, but it’s only a matter of time before the rook breaks free for a sweet stat line.

The Raiders have been mostly neutral against the position, and in the last five weeks, as many TDs have been scored by wideouts vs. this secondary. The defense has given up touchdowns to vertical types to far, including former Jet Robby Anderson, Buffalo’s Gabriel Davis, and KC’s Tyreek Hill and Sammy Watkins. Sixteen times in 11 games a wideout has produced at least 10 points, and half of those performances were good for 17 or more in PPR. We’ve seen enough volume from Mims thus far to say he deserves attention in both scoring formats, and adding a touchdown to his typical results would cement his worthiness in a lineup.

Intangibly speaking, after the Raiders were thoroughly embarrassed last week by the Atlanta Falcons, even the lowly Jets should have a fighting chance of moving the ball more effectively than usual. New York’s defense could allow Las Vegas to get on track offensively, which puts the Jets into a pass-friendly situation — a major benefit for Mims.

My projection: 5 receptions, 80 yards, 1 TD (19 PPR points)

Fantasy football gamble of the week: Week 13

This New York Jet has an opportunity to help fantasy football lineups soar in Week 13.

Every week, at least one player becomes my fascination of whether he’s worthy of a fantasy football start or bench. The decision can be a mental wrestling match, but for the purpose of brevity, only one player can be chosen as the fantasy football gamble of the week.

The best fantasy football gamble for Week 13

Tracking my predictions: 4-7-1
Win: Player produces ≥ 80% of projected fantasy points
Loss: Player produces >80% of projected fantasy points
Tie: Player is ejected or leaves with an injury

It has been a rough go of it for yours truly over the last five weeks … after such a promising start to the year, I’ve flubbed five consecutive picks, with the most recent being San Francisco TE Jordan Reed at Los Angeles Rams. There’s a scenario poker players call going on tilt … this feels like the fantasy football prognostication version of it.

If this were baseball, I’d be considered a competent batter, but in the land of giving advice about a fake lineup, I’m quickly turning into a chump. haha … It comes with the territory, and it’s time to shake off the slump by getting one right in Week 13!

New York Jets WR Denzel Mims vs. Las Vegas Raiders

The rookie receiver has played in only five games to date, and we’re starting to see flashes of why the Jets invested a second-round pick on the vertical threat. He has averaged at least 15.5 yards per catch in each game since debuting in Week 7, and the Baylor product has seen eight targets in three straight outings.

One thing that has me most intrigued by Mims is he has been quarterback- and matchup-proof thus far. He has produced respectable figures against feeble secondaries and more domineering types. He has survived multiple Sam Darnold injuries that led to Joe Flacco getting under center, and the productivity hasn’t missed a beat.

In three consecutive appearances, Mims has produced at least 10.1 PPR points on an awful team that is looking for just about anyone to step up. He has flown under the radar because of this, but it’s only a matter of time before the rook breaks free for a sweet stat line.

The Raiders have been mostly neutral against the position, and in the last five weeks, as many TDs have been scored by wideouts vs. this secondary. The defense has given up touchdowns to vertical types to far, including former Jet Robby Anderson, Buffalo’s Gabriel Davis, and KC’s Tyreek Hill and Sammy Watkins. Sixteen times in 11 games a wideout has produced at least 10 points, and half of those performances were good for 17 or more in PPR. We’ve seen enough volume from Mims thus far to say he deserves attention in both scoring formats, and adding a touchdown to his typical results would cement his worthiness in a lineup.

Intangibly speaking, after the Raiders were thoroughly embarrassed last week by the Atlanta Falcons, even the lowly Jets should have a fighting chance of moving the ball more effectively than usual. New York’s defense could allow Las Vegas to get on track offensively, which puts the Jets into a pass-friendly situation — a major benefit for Mims.

My projection: 5 receptions, 80 yards, 1 TD (19 PPR points)

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[lawrence-newsletter]

Fantasy football gamble of the week: Week 12

Can fantasy footballers count on this veteran tight end to get into the end zone in the face of a strong defensive matchup?

Every week, at least one player becomes my fascination of whether he’s worthy of a fantasy football start or bench. The decision can be a mental wrestling match, but for the purpose of brevity, only one player can be chosen as the fantasy football gamble of the week.

The best fantasy football gamble for Week 12

Tracking my predictions: 4-6-1
Win: Player produces ≥ 80% of projected fantasy points
Loss: Player produces >80% of projected fantasy points
Tie: Player is ejected or leaves with an injury

The Week 11 writeup was Washington Football Team TE Logan Thomas vs. Cincinnati Bengals, and it didn’t go anywhere close to as planned. The Bengals provided a fantastic matchup, and Thomas was targeted five times in the game. Him finishing with only six yards is tough to reconcile, yet Thomas was a sound decision that I fully stand by. As the painful knife twist would go, he found the end zone in Week 12 vs. Dallas on Thanksgiving Day.

This week, in hopes of snapping my worst prognostic slide of the season, I go back to the tight end well once more …

San Francisco TE Jordan Reed at Los Angeles Rams

San Francisco returns from its bye week to face a divisional foe in a matchup that pits backup quarterback Nick Mullens on the road vs. the No. 3 passing defense in the league. Many gamers may simply see the Rams as the opponent and run. The defense eliminated Rob Gronkowski last week, and other usually playable options haven’t fared well this year (Mike Gesicki, Jimmy Graham, Zach Ertz). It’s also easier to get away from Reed with no teams on bye, although four clubs have played so far, which could make it a wash depending upon when lineups are required to be set in your league.

A closer look at Los Angeles points to a rather decent opportunity for Reed to rack up work in PPR formats, and there’s even a remote chance of a touchdown, which is the true gamble of this recommendation. Reed hauled in five of six targets for 62 yards in Week 10 at New Orleans. In his two games without George Kittle and not contending with an injury of his own, Reed has produced no less than 50 yards and five grabs this year. He had seven catches in the other game fitting the criteria.

Six tight ends in 10 outings have at least four snags vs. the Rams this season. While that’s rather respectable given how well this unit has played vs. the pass, there hasn’t been much yardage to speak of — only Ertz (42), Evan Engram (35), Cole Kmet (45), and Kittle (109) have managed more than 34 yards. Kittle’s performance was by far the best effort of anyone this season, going for 7-109-1 in Week 6. Hopefully the 49ers learned more from that showing than the Rams did….

The Niners are hopeful to have WR Deebo Samuel (hamstring) as well as running backs Raheem Mostert (ankle) and Tevin Coleman (knee) back in the mix this week, which helps keep the defense from keying in on any one area. Wideout Brandon Aiyuk is expected to be activated from the COVID-19 list after being deemed a close contact. He has developed into one of the most dangerous rookies in football and commands attention.

Typically defenses that are as stout as this one vs. the wide receiver position sees quarterbacks going inside to the position and having success. That hasn’t quite been the case, as described above. Expect Kyle Shanahan to get extra creative here with a tough matchup and a diminished cast of personnel at his disposal. As long as the running game can keep Los Angeles honest, Reed has a chance to be quite productive.

My projection: 5 receptions, 46 yards, 1 TD (15.6 PPR points)

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[lawrence-newsletter]

Fantasy football gamble of the week: Week 12

Can this veteran tight end get into the end zone in the face of a strong defensive matchup?

Every week, at least one player becomes my fascination of whether he’s worthy of a fantasy football start or bench. The decision can be a mental wrestling match, but for the purpose of brevity, only one player can be chosen as the fantasy football gamble of the week.

The best fantasy football gamble for Week 12

Tracking my predictions: 4-6-1
Win: Player produces ≥ 80% of projected fantasy points
Loss: Player produces >80% of projected fantasy points
Tie: Player is ejected or leaves with an injury

The Week 11 writeup was Washington Football Team TE Logan Thomas vs. Cincinnati Bengals, and it didn’t go anywhere close to as planned. The Bengals provided a fantastic matchup, and Thomas was targeted five times in the game. Him finishing with only six yards is tough to reconcile, yet Thomas was a sound decision that I fully stand by. As the painful knife twist would go, he found the end zone in Week 12 vs. Dallas on Thanksgiving Day.

This week, in hopes of snapping my worst prognostic slide of the season, I go back to the tight end well once more …

San Francisco TE Jordan Reed at Los Angeles Rams

San Francisco returns from its bye week to face a divisional foe in a matchup that pits backup quarterback Nick Mullens on the road vs. the No. 3 passing defense in the league. Many gamers may simply see the Rams as the opponent and run. The defense eliminated Rob Gronkowski last week, and other usually playable options haven’t fared well this year (Mike Gesicki, Jimmy Graham, Zach Ertz). It’s also easier to get away from Reed with no teams on bye, although four clubs have played so far, which could make it a wash depending upon when lineups are required to be set in your league.

A closer look at Los Angeles points to a rather decent opportunity for Reed to rack up work in PPR formats, and there’s even a remote chance of a touchdown, which is the true gamble of this recommendation. Reed hauled in five of six targets for 62 yards in Week 10 at New Orleans. In his two games without George Kittle and not contending with an injury of his own, Reed has produced no less than 50 yards and five grabs this year. He had seven catches in the other game fitting the criteria.

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Six tight ends in 10 outings have at least four snags vs. the Rams this season. While that’s rather respectable given how well this unit has played vs. the pass, there hasn’t been much yardage to speak of — only Ertz (42), Evan Engram (35), Cole Kmet (45), and Kittle (109) have managed more than 34 yards. Kittle’s performance was by far the best effort of anyone this season, going for 7-109-1 in Week 6. Hopefully the 49ers learned more from that showing than the Rams did….

The Niners are hopeful to have WR Deebo Samuel (hamstring) as well as running backs Raheem Mostert (ankle) and Tevin Coleman (knee) back in the mix this week, which helps keep the defense from keying in on any one area. Wideout Brandon Aiyuk is expected to be activated from the COVID-19 list after being deemed a close contact. He has developed into one of the most dangerous rookies in football and commands attention.

Typically defenses that are as stout as this one vs. the wide receiver position sees quarterbacks going inside to the position and having success. That hasn’t quite been the case, as described above. Expect Kyle Shanahan to get extra creative here with a tough matchup and a diminished cast of personnel at his disposal. As long as the running game can keep Los Angeles honest, Reed has a chance to be quite productive.

My projection: 5 receptions, 46 yards, 1 TD (15.6 PPR points)

Fantasy football gamble of the week: Week 11

This Washington tight end has a chance to continue his underappreciated play with a good matchup in Week 11.

Every week, at least one player becomes my fascination of whether he’s worthy of a fantasy football start or bench. The decision can be a mental wrestling match, but for the purpose of brevity, only one player can be chosen as the fantasy football gamble of the week.

The best fantasy football gamble for Week 11

Tracking my predictions: 4-5-1
Win: Player produces ≥ 80% of projected fantasy points
Loss: Player produces >80% of projected fantasy points
Tie: Player is ejected or leaves with an injury

Just when I was getting ahead of the curve with my recommendations, a three-week cold snap has this column trending on the wrong direction. It has been far more difficult of late to find players I’m really excited to recommend as a worthy gamble, but that’s how fantasy goes in the heart of bye weeks.

It also would help if I didn’t reach as far as I have on a few players … most recently, Cleveland Browns WR Rashard Higgins had the makings of a sly fantasy play, but when a quarterback throws 20 times in a game, it’s tough to expect much from the receiving targets, especially fringe ones in a game that began with a 35-minute weather delay.

Washington Football Team TE Logan Thomas vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Thomas has at least four targets in each game this season, and quarterback Alex Smith has gone his way six times apiece in the last two weeks. Thomas has mustered double-digit PPR points in three of his last four outings, even through a two-game scoreless streak.

There’s appeal here due to the Washington passing game really boiling down to Terry McLaurin and third-down back J.D. McKissic. Washington has been forced to throw quite a bit lately, particularly in Week 10.

In the past five weeks, this Bengals unit ranks 113.1 percent easier to exploit than the league average allowed to tight ends in PPR scoring. Prior to last week, when Cincinnati returned from its bye week to face the Pittsburgh Steelers’ Eric Ebron, this unit had been awful vs. the position. Tight ends had found the end zone six times in four contests and had firmly entrenched the Bengals among the worst defenses of the position. In that game, Pittsburgh wide receivers attacked with efficiency and great efficacy against the Bengals, rendering useless the need for Ebron to be a major contributor.

The gamble here is whether Thomas finds his way into the end zone. The volume is not likely to be great, and gamers who are in a rough spot should be focused on him as a possible replacement for guys like George Kittle and Zach Ertz. Several other tight ends have fallen on tough times of late and could be benched in a brazen roll of the dice.

My projection: 4 receptions, 45 yards, 1 TD (14.5 PPR points)

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[lawrence-newsletter]

Fantasy football gamble of the week: Week 11

This Washington tight end has a chance to continue his underappreciated play with a good matchup in Week 11.

Every week, at least one player becomes my fascination of whether he’s worthy of a fantasy football start or bench. The decision can be a mental wrestling match, but for the purpose of brevity, only one player can be chosen as the fantasy football gamble of the week.

The best fantasy football gamble for Week 11

Tracking my predictions: 4-5-1
Win: Player produces ≥ 80% of projected fantasy points
Loss: Player produces >80% of projected fantasy points
Tie: Player is ejected or leaves with an injury

Just when I was getting ahead of the curve with my recommendations, a three-week cold snap has this column trending on the wrong direction. It has been far more difficult of late to find players I’m really excited to recommend as a worthy gamble, but that’s how fantasy goes in the heart of bye weeks.

It also would help if I didn’t reach as far as I have on a few players … most recently, Cleveland Browns WR Rashard Higgins had the makings of a sly fantasy play, but when a quarterback throws 20 times in a game, it’s tough to expect much from the receiving targets, especially fringe ones in a game that began with a 35-minute weather delay.

Washington Football Team TE Logan Thomas vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Thomas has at least four targets in each game this season, and quarterback Alex Smith has gone his way six times apiece in the last two weeks. Thomas has mustered double-digit PPR points in three of his last four outings, even through a two-game scoreless streak.

There’s appeal here due to the Washington passing game really boiling down to Terry McLaurin and third-down back J.D. McKissic. Washington has been forced to throw quite a bit lately, particularly in Week 10.

In the past five weeks, this Bengals unit ranks 113.1 percent easier to exploit than the league average allowed to tight ends in PPR scoring. Prior to last week, when Cincinnati returned from its bye week to face the Pittsburgh Steelers’ Eric Ebron, this unit had been awful vs. the position. Tight ends had found the end zone six times in four contests and had firmly entrenched the Bengals among the worst defenses of the position. In that game, Pittsburgh wide receivers attacked with efficiency and great efficacy against the Bengals, rendering useless the need for Ebron to be a major contributor.

The gamble here is whether Thomas finds his way into the end zone. The volume is not likely to be great, and gamers who are in a rough spot should be focused on him as a possible replacement for guys like George Kittle and Zach Ertz. Several other tight ends have fallen on tough times of late and could be benched in a brazen roll of the dice.

My projection: 4 receptions, 45 yards, 1 TD (14.5 PPR points)

Fantasy football gamble of the week: Week 10

Returning from the bye week, can this Cleveland Brown step up once again in place of Odell Beckham Jr.?

Every week, at least one player becomes my fascination of whether he’s worthy of a fantasy football start or bench. The decision can be a mental wrestling match, but for the purpose of brevity, only one player can be chosen as the fantasy football gamble of the week.

The best fantasy football gamble for Week 10

Tracking my predictions: 4-4-1
Win: Player produces ≥ 80% of projected fantasy points
Loss: Player produces >80% of projected fantasy points
Tie: Player is ejected or leaves with an injury

I couldn’t find a single player last week that deserved more than a lukewarm endorsement, so I settled on Seattle Seahawks TE Greg Olsen. Right position on the team, wrong player … Jacob Hollister, not Olsen, was the primary beneficiary of the matchup and situation, marking the first time all season in this space that my recommendations were wrong in consecutive weeks.

Rather than play it safe to avoid making it a hat trick of consecutively terrible calls, I’m going to place my bet on game flow and situational football taking over.

Cleveland Browns WR Rashard Higgins vs. Houston Texans

When the Browns lost Odell Beckham Jr. (knee) for the season in Week 7, Higgins stepped in cold and picked up the slack. He finished with six targets, as many receptions, and 110 yards. OBJ wasn’t heavily involved in the offense to begin with, and this is a run-heavy system, so we’re not looking at a massive volume of work to replace. That must be recognized off the bat — and it was, in part, on display in Week 8 when Higgins had the lineup spot all to himself. He saw three targets vs. Las Vegas, landing one for 14 yards. It’s difficult to matter much when your team passes 25 times.

In Week 9, the Browns were on bye and had the time make the necessary adjustments that could benefit Higgins. Another factor working in his favor is the expected return of running back Nick Chubb, because his explosive nature keeps defenses honest, whereas Kareem Hunt is more of a grinding style of player who doesn’t necessarily scare defensive coordinators with the prospects of ripping off a massive run each time he touches the ball.

Tight end Austin Hooper also is poised to return after missing action due to an appendectomy, and his position faces a bright matchup outlook vs. the Texans. That could potentially work against Higgins’ volume, but it also presents yet another outlet for the defense to focus on.

Higgins, who scored in consecutive games as a role player prior to OBJ going down, has demonstrated chemistry with quarterback Baker Mayfield in the past. The two hooked up on four touchdowns in 2018, and Higgins amounted to somewhat of a safety blanket for the then-rookie passer during a season in which Jarvis Landry was the top receiver and Beckham wasn’t on the roster. Sound familiar?

Houston has given up the seventh-highest average of PPR points to the position on the season, and in the last five weeks, the number jumps from 41.8 per game to 49.5, which is 30 percent more than the league average. Thirteen receivers in eight contests have posted 10 or more points in reception-rewarding scoring systems, and there have been six individual efforts with at least 75 yards. Ten receivers have produced five or more grabs against this unit.

My biggest concern about this situation is the offense could lean into the positive matchup for the running backs heavier than expected and we see a similar situation as in Week 8, when low volume was a fantasy death knell for Cleveland receivers. The reason why I feel this is mitigated vs. Houston is the Texans have the firepower to keep Cleveland in need of scoring points in a matchup that favors Houston’s aerial game.

In a week where gamers are without Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley, Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb, Tyreek Hill and Jamison Crowder, there has to be a willingness to take a chance on an underutilized player with a great matchup and extenuating factors working in his favor. Part of taking that gamble comes with the acceptance that some weeks you’re rolling the dice on modest output and not a game-breaking performance.

My projection: 4 receptions, 63 yards, 1 TD (16.3 PPR points)

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[lawrence-newsletter]

Fantasy football gamble of the week: Week 10

Returning from the bye week, can this Cleveland Brown step up once again in place of Odell Beckham Jr.?

Every week, at least one player becomes my fascination of whether he’s worthy of a fantasy football start or bench. The decision can be a mental wrestling match, but for the purpose of brevity, only one player can be chosen as the fantasy football gamble of the week.

The best fantasy football gamble for Week 10

Tracking my predictions: 4-4-1
Win: Player produces ≥ 80% of projected fantasy points
Loss: Player produces >80% of projected fantasy points
Tie: Player is ejected or leaves with an injury

I couldn’t find a single player last week that deserved more than a lukewarm endorsement, so I settled on Seattle Seahawks TE Greg Olsen. Right position on the team, wrong player … Jacob Hollister, not Olsen, was the primary beneficiary of the matchup and situation, marking the first time all season in this space that my recommendations were wrong in consecutive weeks.

Rather than play it safe to avoid making it a hat trick of consecutively terrible calls, I’m going to place my bet on game flow and situational football taking over.

Cleveland Browns WR Rashard Higgins vs. Houston Texans

When the Browns lost Odell Beckham Jr. (knee) for the season in Week 7, Higgins stepped in cold and picked up the slack. He finished with six targets, as many receptions, and 110 yards. OBJ wasn’t heavily involved in the offense to begin with, and this is a run-heavy system, so we’re not looking at a massive volume of work to replace. That must be recognized off the bat — and it was, in part, on display in Week 8 when Higgins had the lineup spot all to himself. He saw three targets vs. Las Vegas, landing one for 14 yards. It’s difficult to matter much when your team passes 25 times.

In Week 9, the Browns were on bye and had the time make the necessary adjustments that could benefit Higgins. Another factor working in his favor is the expected return of running back Nick Chubb, because his explosive nature keeps defenses honest, whereas Kareem Hunt is more of a grinding style of player who doesn’t necessarily scare defensive coordinators with the prospects of ripping off a massive run each time he touches the ball.

Tight end Austin Hooper also is poised to return after missing action due to an appendectomy, and his position faces a bright matchup outlook vs. the Texans. That could potentially work against Higgins’ volume, but it also presents yet another outlet for the defense to focus on.

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Higgins, who scored in consecutive games as a role player prior to OBJ going down, has demonstrated chemistry with quarterback Baker Mayfield in the past. The two hooked up on four touchdowns in 2018, and Higgins amounted to somewhat of a safety blanket for the then-rookie passer during a season in which Jarvis Landry was the top receiver and Beckham wasn’t on the roster. Sound familiar?

Houston has given up the seventh-highest average of PPR points to the position on the season, and in the last five weeks, the number jumps from 41.8 per game to 49.5, which is 30 percent more than the league average. Thirteen receivers in eight contests have posted 10 or more points in reception-rewarding scoring systems, and there have been six individual efforts with at least 75 yards. Ten receivers have produced five or more grabs against this unit.

My biggest concern about this situation is the offense could lean into the positive matchup for the running backs heavier than expected and we see a similar situation as in Week 8, when low volume was a fantasy death knell for Cleveland receivers. The reason why I feel this is mitigated vs. Houston is the Texans have the firepower to keep Cleveland in need of scoring points in a matchup that favors Houston’s aerial game.

In a week where gamers are without Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley, Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb, Tyreek Hill and Jamison Crowder, there has to be a willingness to take a chance on an underutilized player with a great matchup and extenuating factors working in his favor. Part of taking that gamble comes with the acceptance that some weeks you’re rolling the dice on modest output and not a game-breaking performance.

My projection: 4 receptions, 63 yards, 1 TD (16.3 PPR points)

Fantasy football gamble of the week: Week 9

Can this underperforming veteran live up to a brilliant matchup in Week 9?

Every week, at least one player becomes my fascination of whether he’s worthy of a fantasy football start or bench. The decision can be a mental wrestling match, but for the purpose of brevity, only one player can be chosen as the fantasy football gamble of the week.

The best fantasy football gamble for Week 9

Tracking my predictions: 4-3-1
Win: Player produces ≥ 80% of projected fantasy points
Loss: Player produces >80% of projected fantasy points
Tie: Player is ejected or leaves with an injury

Last week’s recommendation of Miami Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa vs. Los Angeles Rams couldn’t have been a bigger whiff. I drastically underestimated Miami’s ability to slow the Rams’ passing game, and Tua ran the ball only twice. One critical aspect in fantasy football player prognostication is the ability to correctly projection game flow. As they say, “That’s why they play the game.” … Let’s move forward and discuss a worthy gamble for Week 9.

Seattle Seahawks TE Greg Olsen at Buffalo Bills

How’s this for a risk? Olsen didn’t even catch a pass last week on four targets, and the veteran failed top 20 yards in any of the past three weeks. He has not scored a touchdown since Week 1. He has caught no more than five passes in any game this year, which happened in Weeks 3 and 4. The season-high yardage output is only 61 yards, and Olsen has 73 total yards in the four games since.

I’m not excited to recommend him, so be perfectly clear what kind of risk is being assumed and understand this is a huge gamble with modest returns in mind. The reality is there simply weren’t any gamble-type players this week I was enthusiastic about recommending.

So why is there any appeal? A few things jump out: Buffalo has given up six touchdowns to the position in eight games this year, including five in the last five weeks. Five different tight ends have caught at least five passes in 2020 vs. the Bills. The more intriguing factor is this defense has played the New York Jets twice and New England Patriots, two teams that have zero semblance of a tight end for fantasy purpose. Furthermore, the Los Angeles Rams were the Week 3 opponent, and LA’s 2020 positional contributions have been a fraction of what anyone expected entering the year.

Another factor is all of the defensive attention to be paid toward slowing Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf. Add in the consistently competent play of WR David Moore, and the possible return of running back Chris Carson, and it becomes difficult to keep up with all of the talented options. It cuts both ways, meaning Olsen just as soon can get lost in the mix.

With the recent losses of TEs George Kittle and Zach Ertz, as well as underperforming starters, say Mark Andrews, it’s easier to stomach taking a chance on Olsen with a good matchup than a more proven tight end with a poor one.

My projection: 4 catches, 51 yards, 1 TD (15.1 PPR points)

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