Every season, several proven players regress and even fall off of the fantasy football map due to injury, demotion, a poor system fit, or another unforeseen calamity. Players of the fake game understandably tend to be of the, “What has he done for me lately?” mindset. Heading into the 2020 season, let’s explore which players are most likely to bounce back from a down year in 2019.
QB Baker Mayfield | Cleveland Browns | ADP: 10:09
Mayfield’s rookie season closed out about as well as anyone could have expected in 2018 before the wheels came off under the one-and-done tenure of Freddie Kitchens as a head coach. Replacing Kitchens is Kevin Stefanski, a level-headed, well-groomed offensive mind whose roots in the West Coast offense should help as much as his demeanor. There’s no question the Browns are extremely talented on offense. The line has a few work-in-progress areas, but the combination of a zone-blocking system with a play-action emphasis will be the ticket to getting Mayfield back on track. He’s a better athlete than often given credit for being, and early reports say he has fully bought in to Stefanski’s ways.
After a QB16 finish last year, the expectations are modest. Lowered expectations comes with less pressure, and all of these aspects tie together for a maturing quarterback who sometimes is his own worst enemy. Look for low-end QB1 results via efficiency increases, fewer stalled drives and turnovers, and an emphasis on taking smart shots down the field.
RB James Conner | Pittsburgh Steelers | ADP: 4:01
An efficient, consistent producer who had a nose for the end zone in 2018, the Steelers having four capable backs indicates they may look to keep Conner fresh all year after he has failed to stay healthy for 16 games with an increased role. During his breakout ’18 campaign, the Pittsburgh product ran only 215 times in 13 games (16.5 per week) and touched the ball just over 20 total times, on average. He made a name for himself in fantasy circles with 12 showings of double-digit PPR points and a dozen touchdowns scored on the turf, adding one through the aerial game.
In 2019, though, injuries, no Ben Roethlisberger, and an overall stunted offense put a target on Conner’s back for defenders. His rushing average dipped by half a yard, and 1.6 yards per reception were shaved from his passing work. He touched the ball 15 times per appearance. That has to change. Even if he handles it only 15 times a game in 2020, the efficient version of him we saw the year prior must return or this recommendation is not going to work. Big Ben returns to health. JuJu Smith-Schuster should be better and healthy. A huge year is possible from WR Diontae Johnson. The passing game gained more depth, as did the backfield, with the selection of Anthony McFarland Jr. as a change-of-pace option. Conner, in 16 games, even at 15 touches as an average, still has a chance to creep into the low-tier RB1 territory. He remains a risk-reward target as a second back, offering more security in PPR.
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WR Odell Beckham Jr. | Cleveland Browns | ADP: 3:07
Coinciding with the inclusion of his quarterback in this list, Beckham stands to benefit greatly from the move to this new offense. He played in a West Coast design before, and Stefanski’s version will find ways to utilize Beckham down the field to take advantage of his game-breaking skill set. The 2019 version of the Browns struggled so much to protect Mayfield, who never really was on the same page with OBJ, and it led to a lot of underneath work for Jarvis Landry.
The Minnesota offense under Stefanski supported a pair of talented receivers when both Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen were healthy, spanning late 2018 through the end of 2019. A balanced attack with a pair of legitimate No. 1 backs will be the driver of this offense, which isn’t to say Beckham will struggle to return to WR1 status. Expect his target share to increase over last year, while his overall total of looks may not change or could even decrease slightly (133 last year). Improved efficiency from the designs, the quarterback’s decisions, and a dangerous play-action passing offense will help OBJ return to fantasy glory.
WR Adam Thielen | Minnesota Vikings | ADP: 3:06
After a pair of stellar fantasy football seasons by most any standard, Thielen struggled to overcome a hamstring injury in 2019 and was relegated to playing only 10 games, limited in a few. He averaged just 11.4 points per contest in PPR, which was his low since coming onto the fantasy scene in 2016. He still displayed game-breaking ability in couple of his healthy games and scored six times in five of the outings, but inconsistency ravaged his fantasy returns, unlike in 2018.
Minnesota lost offensive coordinator Kevin Stefanski to Cleveland Brows as their new head coach, paving a return to coaching for Gary Kubiak. The veteran play-caller will run an offense that is awfully similar to Stefanski’s West Coast derivative. Thielen’s top partner in the passing game, Stefon Diggs, was dealt to the Buffalo Bills and replaced by a first-round rookie. This works in Thielen’s favor for target share but also likely means he’ll see more doubles than ever. Nevertheless, trust in his connection with Kirk Cousins, a dangerous play-action passing game, and Thielen remaining healthy to create another WR1 campaign.
WR T.Y. Hilton | Indianapolis Colts | ADP: 5:02
In 2019, Hilton not only had to deal with losing his BFF in Andrew Luck to premature retirement, but a nagging calf injury cost him five games and a quad strain forced him to sit another. In 10 games, he averaged only 12.5 PPR points, and the speedy veteran failed to catch more than 45 balls for the first time in his career. No stranger to injuries, Hilton has missed time in consecutive seasons, and 50 percent of his eight seasons haven’t seen him play 16 games.
The outlook for 2020 is much better. The calf injury is no longer an issue, and Jacoby Brissett has been replaced by Philip Rivers. In the past two drafts, the Colts have spent second-rounders on a pair of receivers to help alleviate some pressure on the 30-year-old Hilton. Indianapolis may opt for more running in 2020 with Marlon Mack and Jonathan Taylor behind arguably football’s best line, and Hilton actually can benefit from a convincing play-action system. Despite undeniable overall health concerns, Hilton is a WR2 with big-play ability in a contract year.
TE Eric Ebron | Pittsburgh Steelers | ADP: 13:11
As mentioned in the Conner writeup above, the return of Roethlisberger is crucial. Ebron still is an injury liability, and the idea he will be a weekly starter probably should be scrapped from the get-go. In 2018, during his breakout season, Ebron’s fantasy football worth was fueled by his nose for the end zone. Not only was he a TD machine, Ebron finished that season sixth in receptions and fifth in yardage generated by a tight end. He also didn’t have to contend with Jack Doyle, and Luck was his quarterback.
In 2020, provided Big Ben stays healthy, the situation is similar in several ways. We have waited to see veteran tight end Vance McDonald emerge for several years, and he, too, is injury-prone. The Steelers have a pass-leaning approach, and the best way for Ebron to find fantasy utility is as a weapon in the red zone once again. Look for the attention paid to Conner and Smith-Schuster as a benefit for Ebron seeing mostly one-on-one coverage. That said, he comes with tremendous risk and is best drafted in a rotational situation.
