Tag: fantasy baseball
Fantasy baseball: Don’t discount the Astros due to the cheating scandal
Ignore the noise, like the Astros will.
It’s a legitimately fair question to ask: are the Houston Astros hitters going to take a step back in 2020 because of the reaction from fans on the 81 games they’ll play on the road? Will they do worse if there’s no sign-stealing in place (if that was indeed a thing in 2019, something Major League Baseball didn’t find in its report)?
For fantasy baseball owners, that’s a concern. Alex Bregman, Yordan Alvarez, Jose Altuve and George Springer are all top-50 choices, and Michael Brantley and Carlos Correa are arguably in the top 100. If you believe all the boos, media attention and screams of “CURVEBALL!” will distract them, then you may avoid them at their current high ADPs.
Some guy in the crowd goes “curveball!” and Springer goes down looking on a fastball pic.twitter.com/5WvvLOxAPD
— 2020 Astros Shame Tour (@AsteriskTour) March 3, 2020
But is that just a fallacy?
I think so.
Let’s start with some hard numbers. Hat tip to the Washington Post, which did a breakdown of home/road splits for Bregman, Altuve, Alvarez, Springer and Correa. The thought is that if those players were indeed benefiting from knowing what pitch was coming at home, they would struggle on the road over the past three seasons.
The Post’s Neil Greenberg found that nearly all of the stars’ numbers were for real, and in some cases, better on the road. It’s a reminder the Astros boast one of the Majors’ best lineups regardless of trash-can banging.
As for the concerns of distraction? I’m not buying it. Most professional athletes can tune out the crowd — which of course will be much larger than the ones they’re seeing in Spring Training — which is why they make the kind of money they’re paid. Or, hey, maybe they embrace being the heels and it helps them mentally in the day to day grind on the road.
Whatever the case may be, don’t discount the Astros hitters in your draft. If anything, buy low if you see opportunities to do so.
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2020 Fantasy Baseball Busts: 5 Players to Avoid on Draft Day
Highlighting five fantasy baseball bust candidates who should be avoided at their average draft position (ADP).
We recently looked at the top fantasy baseball sleepers for the 2020 MLB season and now focus on five fantasy baseball bust candidates you’ll need to avoid during your fantasy baseball draft, at least at their current average draft position (ADP) cost.
The term “bust” isn’t always meant for players who’ll have downright awful seasons. Here, it refers to players who won’t meet your fantasy baseball expectations based on where they’re being drafted and who they’re being drafted above.
Also see: 2020 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers
2020 Fantasy baseball busts
Jorge Soler, OF, Kansas City Royals
Soler broke out in 2019 to more than double in his career total in homers with 48 while playing all 162 games. He hit just nine homers in 61 games with the Royals in 2018.
He has a career batting average of .255, though he has .265 each of the last two seasons, and his 26.2% strikeout rate last season was worse than all but 16 other qualified hitters. He has next to no speed to offer, and he has little protection while hitting in the middle of a rebuilding Royals club.
DJ LeMahieu, INF, New York Yankees
LeMahieu, at age 31, hit more home runs in his first season with the Yankees than in he did in any of six full seasons with the Colorado Rockies. In fact, his 26 home runs last season were more than he hit in total in 2017 and 2018. This despite a move to Yankee Stadium from Coors Field.
The veteran infield also noticed a spike in his batting average and on-base percentage, despite a pedestrian 7.0% walk rate. He hasn’t been able to steal double-digit bases since 2016, and he’s one of several Yankees hitters who can be expected to see a dip in the runs and RBI totals this year after a record-setting 2019 for the team.
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Mallex Smith, OF, Seattle Mariners
Smith led baseball with 46 stolen bases last season, and he was thrown out just nine times. His .227 batting average was worse than anyone else with at least 12 SBs and he struck out in 24.9% of plate appearances with just a 7.4% walk rate. He has just 13 career home runs in 428 games and is purely a one-category player.
Josh Bell, 1B, Pittsburgh Pirates
Similarly to Soler, Bell enjoyed a career-best power surge last season. He has the better-rounded game, but as the only hitter to fear in a soft Pirates lineup, he’s unlikely to see enough pitches to hit, and there’ll be no one to drive him home once he walks.
He ranked ninth in baseball in RBI last season, but he’ll have fewer men on base in 2020, as well.
Josh Hader, RP, Milwaukee Brewers
Hader is this year’s prime example of relievers being overvalued in fantasy baseball. He ranked third in baseball in saves last season while pitching to a 2.62 ERA. He ranked first with 16.41 strikeouts per nine innings and his 75 2/3 innings were more than anyone else in the top 10 in the category, but he’s being drafted an average of 18 spots ahead of the next highest RP.
He’s also the closer for a Brewers team expected to take at least a small step backward this season in the competitive NL Central. Expect fewer saves this season and not enough strikeouts to justify picking Hader above the likes of Charlie Morton, Zach Greinke, Lucas Giolito, Chris Paddack and other top-tier starters.
Follow @EstenMcLaren and @SportsbookWire.
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2020 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers: 5 Players to Help Win Your League
Analyzing five of the best fantasy baseball sleeper candidates for the 2020 MLB season who can help you win your league.
The fantasy baseball season is nearly upon us with spring training well underway. Below, we look at five fantasy baseball options for the 2020 MLB season that can help you win your league.
Not all fantasy baseball sleepers lists are the same, with the term being left open for interpretation. Here, we’re looking at players who will offer value relative to their draft position, whether that be in the middle or later rounds.
2020 Fantasy baseball sleepers
Justin Upton, OF, Los Angeles Angels
Upton is set to return from a 2019 season in which he was limited to just 63 games due to toe and knee injuries. He was able to hit 12 home runs in 256 plate appearances, but he posted a slash line of just .215/.309/.416 with all three figures falling well below his career averages. He posted higher rates of both fly balls and hard contact.
He’s expected to hit fifth in 2020, and he will have plenty of RBI opportunities with Mike Trout, Anthony Rendon and Shohei Ohtani lined up ahead of him. Returns from injury typically represent good value on draft day, and Upton is one of this season’s prime examples.
Travis Shaw, 1B/2B/3B, Toronto Blue Jays
Shaw is coming off a poor 2019 season with the Milwaukee Brewers, as he hit just seven home runs in 86 games. He totaled 63 homers over the previous two seasons and is now the veteran presence in a young, loaded, Blue Jays lineup.
Shaw is expected to be the everyday first baseman and will have plenty of opportunities in Toronto, while also being able to fill in at 3B or 2B. He hit fewer ground balls with more fly balls in his limited action last year, and he should be able to return to the 30-home run tier in the very hitter-friendly Rogers Centre.
Zac Gallen, SP, Arizona Diamondbacks
Madison Bumgarner was signed to be the new ace of the Diamondbacks’ rotation in 2020 and beyond. Robbie Ray returns as a strong No. 2, and Mike Leake and Luke Weaver help to round out the five-man group with Gallen.
Gallen, a Class AAA star in the Miami Marlins organization last year, is going overlooked. He struck out 10.8 batters per nine innings over 15 MLB starts with the Marlins and Diamondbacks last season. While he allowed 4.05 walks per nine innings, he limited damage by giving up just 0.90 home runs per nine. Keeping the ball in the park will be an essential skill at Chase Field.
Ian Happ, 2B/3B/OF, Chicago Cubs
Positional eligibility is a major asset in all fantasy baseball formats, and Happ’s ability to move around the field will allow him to stay in the Cubs lineup on most days in 2020.
He was sent back to Class AAA for a large portion of the 2019 campaign following strong 2017 and 2018 seasons in the majors. He totaled 27 homers and 11 stolen bases in 157 combined games across the two levels.
Will Smith, C, Los Angeles Dodgers
Smith is going overlooked in the powerful Dodgers lineup. Despite the fact he’s almost sure to be stuck in the bottom third of the batting order all season, the 24-year-old catcher should finish the season as one of the top options at the thin position. He’ll have men on base more often than not when stepping up to the plate, and his 15 home runs in 54 MLB games last year had him on a 40-homer pace.
Follow @EstenMcLaren and @SportsbookWire.
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