The Buffalo Bills (9-6) are on a quest to keep their AFC East championship dreams alive Sunday when they host a mediocre Atlanta Falcons (7-8) squad during Week 17 action. Kickoff is scheduled for 1 p.m. ET at Highmark Stadium. Below, we look at the Falcons vs. Bills odds and lines, and make our best NFL picks, predictions and bets.
With snow expected we should be treated to a winter-wonderland game. Daytime accumulation of 1-3 inches is possible, with winds in 9-11 mph territory, which could lead to more emphasis on both ground games.
If you want to compete with Buffalo, you’re going to need to score — something the Falcons struggle doing. Atlanta is poorly ranked this season in most key offensive metrics, averaging just 18.5 points (25th in the league), 309.5 total yards (25th) and 86.2 rush yards (31st) per game.
While Atlanta has won three of their last five games, those wins came against the Detroit Lions, Carolina Panthers and Jacksonville Jaguars. They’re 2-3 against the spread (ATS) and 1-4 O/U during that stretch.
The Bills are also 3-2 in their last five games, but losses came against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (in OT) and New England Patriots. Buffalo is 3-2 ATS and 3-2 O/U across that span.
Buffalo looks to keep pushing into the playoffs after scoring at least 31 points in each of its last two games, both of which were ATS covers and Over hits. Buffalo averages 28.5 points (3rd in the league), 381.2 total yards (6th) and 120.4 rush yards (11th) per game.
Falcons at Bills odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated 10:32 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Falcons +700 (bet $100 to win $700) | Bills -1200 (bet $1,200 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Falcons +14.5 (-112) | Bills -14.5 (-108)
- Over/Under (O/U): 45.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Falcons at Bills key injuries
Falcons
- CB Fabian Moreau (ribs) doubtful
- S Jaylinn Hawkins (reserve/COVID) questionable
Bills
- WR Emmanuel Sanders (knee) questionable
- DT Ed Oliver (ankle) questionable
Let’s Make This Interesting
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Falcons at Bills odds, lines, predictions and picks
Prediction
Bills 26, Falcons 13
Money line
It is an easy PASS on the money line, simply because it’s not smart betting -1200 chalk plays. Even with a more than likely Buffalo win, the return just isn’t worth the risk. Every $100 wagered on Buffalo, who have implied winning odds of 92.31 percent, returns just $8.33.
Atlanta has also not shown enough this season to even dangle a half-unit on a +700 underdog while chasing an upset.
Against the spread
Atlanta is 6-9 ATS while Buffalo is 8-6-1 ATS on the year.
I hate spreads of more than two touchdowns — this one sits at 14.5 currently — as beating a team by 15 is never an easy feat. However, Buffalo has covered a spread this big four times this season, most recently in a 31-14 victory over Carolina Dec. 19th.
Buffalo has every reason to put forth an A+ effort here, while Atlanta is just playing out the schedule. Even then, Atlanta QB Matt Ryan is playing safe, conservative football with just one turnover in the past month and the tandem of RB Cordarrelle Patterson and RB Mike Davis provide an interesting 1-2 punch. The Bills have allowed at least 14 points in each of their past four games.
The LEAN is the FALCONS +14.5 (-112), but I’d only hit it with a half unit.
Over/Under
It’s going to take some effort to get to the total of 45.5 points and I’m not sold Atlanta can do its part in helping with the weather a classic Buffalo-style this time of year.
Buffalo is 8-7 and Atlanta is 6-9 against the O/U. With ground games, clock management and long drives a likely approach today, siding with the UNDER 45.5 (-105) is the safe play here.
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