Tag: EvanMiya

EvanMiya likes Duke’s chances to make a deep run in the tournament

Duke may not have been the most consistent team in the country over the last month, but basketball analytics website EvanMiya likes their chances to make a deep run.

Duke basketball struggled to maintain consistency over the closing stretch of the season, capped off by an ACC Tournament loss in the quarterfinals to eventual champion NC State.

However, the Blue Devils’ high-powered offense still has the attention of basketball analytics site EvanMiya.

The site published its forecasts for the upcoming tournament after Sunday’s bracket reveal, ranking the teams most likely to win the championship, and the Blue Devils finished higher than expected.

Despite being a No. 4 seed in the field, EvanMiya thinks Duke has the eighth-best chance to cut down the nets at 3.8%. Only Auburn (7.3%) had a better chance among teams below the top two seeds.

According to the site’s simulations, the Blue Devils have an 85.9% chance to beat Vermont in the opening round, a 55.6% chance to reach the Sweet 16, and a 19.1% chance to reach the Final Four.

Connecticut has the strongest case in the field with a 23.4% chance of winning the national title, according to EvanMiya’s simulations. No other team surpassed 13.2% (Purdue).

EvanMiya’s ‘Kill Shot’: How many 10-0 runs does Duke rattle off?

EvanMiya’s “kill shot” metric shows that teams with a 10-0 run have an overwhelming chance to win a game. How often does Duke pull one off?

Basketball analytics nerds are probably reveling in how mainstream sports data has become, and few examples are more prevalent than EvanMiya.

Founded by Evan Miyakawa, the site has become one of the most well-known sources for college basketball data. The site’s most popular measurement over the past few weeks is known as the “kill shot,” a measurement of how often teams rattle off a 10-0 run.

According to an explanation written by Miyakawa, teams that go on a 10-0 run during a game win 71% of the time. If a team can pull off two such runs in a single game, that win percentage jumps up to 86% of the time.

If you don’t end things at the halftime break, the Blue Devils were a victim of a kill shot against the Wolfpack on Thursday. After Duke led 32-30 with 1:30 to play before halftime, NC State scored the next 11 points over the next four minutes.

The end result? A 74-69 win for the Wolfpack, the difference decided in those handful of minutes.

Strangely enough, for a team as offensive as Duke, they seem better at preventing kill shots than enforcing them. A graph can be found on Miyakawa’s blog post, but the Blue Devils are one of the better teams in the nation at not allowing 10-0 runs, allowing less than 0.3 kill shots per game (adjusted for strength of schedule).

Duke doesn’t quite break off as many kill shots as some other top teams, averaging around 0.6 adjusted kill shots per game. Some national contenders like Connecticut, Tennessee, or Alabama are close to 0.7, and Houston is close to 0.75.

Either way, the Blue Devils are closer to the best corner of the graph than anywhere else.

EvanMiya bracket simulation has Duke upset by Morehead State in first round

EvanMiya’s Wednesday NCAA Tournament simulation had Duke lose to a No. 14 seed in the opening round while a bitter rival cut down the nets.

College basketball analytics site EvanMiya started a series of daily bracket simulations this week ahead of the NCAA Tournament, and Duke fans won’t love the Wednesday edition.

In the most recent simulation from the site, the No. 3 seed Blue Devils get upset by Morehead State in the opening round.

What’s worse? The North Carolina Tar Heels end up beating Houston in the title game to cut down the nets.

Morehead State, an automatic qualifier after beating Little Rock to win the Ohio Valley Conference, is 109th in KenPom’s adjusted efficiency margin. The Eagles finished the regular season with a 23-8 record and a 14-4 mark against OVC opponents, but after their three-game run in the conference tournament, they’ve won 18 of their last 22 games.

The Eagles didn’t even continue their Cinderella run in the simulation, losing to St. John’s in the Second Round.

No other top-three seed lost in the opening round of the Wednesday simulation.

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